JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/19

Jay Jaffe

12:16

Howdy folks and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat – and as before, this one figures to be Hall of Fame flavored. Towards that end, I've got a piece on big year-to-year jumps in the voting centered around Larry Walker, which should be up by the time this chat is over.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

12:16

Hey there Jay. Did you ever get into Strat-o-Matic or MLB Showdown?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

No. I played Strat a couple times but growing up, neither my brother of my other friends were into such things at the time. What I did play a bit of was Avalon Hill’s Baseball Strategy, and a ton of Strategic Simulations Inc.’s Computer Baseball, which I wrote about for Michael Clair's blog-a-thon a few years ago http://oldtimefamilybaseball.com/post/73880788748/the-basement-tapes-b...

12:20

Sorry, I had to spend a couple minutes in Google tracking that down, and now my lunch — banh mi from Hanco's — is here. So if things are as slow-starting as Larry Walker's Hall of Fame candidacy, that's why.

Brodie

12:20

So Grandal only got one year... looks like a misread the market pretty badly to offer four years...

Jay Jaffe

12:23

I'd say it was a misread of Grandal's to turn down four years — if that was actually offered, and with Heyman, Nightengale and Rosenthal all reporting that he did have one, in the 4/$50-60M range (see https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/yasmani-grandal), then I'll take that as solid. But he gets to play for a contender, in a hitter-friendly park, so if he stays healthy, he'll get another shot next year without being attached to a qualifying offer.

Zamora

12:23

Yasmani Grandal is the biggest FA steal since...?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

While a one-year deal avoids long-term risk, I wouldn't call $18.25 million plus a lost compensation pick a steal.

Lou

12:24

What is behind the lack of a market for Grandal? You'd think getting an elite framer with a 125 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR at an premium position would get more than a 1 year deal.

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I've heard that the Dodgers didn't love his game-calling, and maybe that plus his Biogenesis history and/or his rough October may have been factors.

OddBall Herrera

12:26

Am I the only one surprised to see Berkman in danger of falling off the ballot in year 1 while Jeff Kent continues to chug along 6 years later?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

Berkman is going to be a Rule of 2,000 guy. Nobody from the post-1960 expansion era has been elected if they fall short of 2,000 hits. Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Tony Oliva, Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire — voters don't really give these guys much support. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/

stever20

12:29

how great of a signing was it for the Nats getting Dozier? Seems like this is one that fits like an absolute glove.

Jay Jaffe

12:32

He's coming off a dreadful season (0.8 WAR) marked by knee woes and two consecutive years of declining defensive metrics. If he's healthy and rebounds to his projected 2.5 WAR, it looks like a great deal but it could also become a writeoff. Certainly a shot worth taking for the Nationals, but it's not like they just won the lottery

Alan

12:33

Have you ever written about Kevin Brown's HOF qualifications? As a one-and-done guy his odds must be pretty long, and he was in Ken Davidoff's words "unpleasant," but man could he pitch.

Jay Jaffe

12:37

I wrote a couple hundred words about him for The Cooperstown Casebook but I don't recall more than a passing mention of him in anything recent. The Mitchell Report really hurt him, and his charm-school demeanor probably didn't help, either, but his 56.6 JAWS is in the same general vicinity of Halladay (57.5), Greinke (56.5) and Verlander (54.8). I think his odds will improve 10-15 years down the road after we see the other non-300 win guys get in.

12:38

There were a number of "one and done" players on the HOF ballot that surprised me to think that their last game was 5 years ago. Anyone in particular that stood out to you or made you nostalgic?

Jay Jaffe

12:41

They all did, to some degree — that's what drives that phase of the project — but Ted Lilly was one that really jogged my memory because I was following his progress so closely as he was breaking into the Yankees rotation in 2001. Latter-day Freddy Garcia remains a favorite because I covered his re-emergence with the Yankees while writing for the Pinstriped Bible c. 2011 with Steven Goldman and Cliff Corcoran. And I gained a new appreciation for Darren Oliver's career.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free

12:41

Re: Grandal, he got 18 mil for a year. Which leaves 32 mil from his reported offer from the Mets. He can easily make that in his next contract if he plays decently next year right? Plus, he doesn’t have to play for the Mets. Money isn’t everything, I think Grandal did the right thing.

Jay Jaffe

12:46

Yes, if he stays healthy but that's no given for a catcher. It's worth noting Grandal, though he's generally been durable, is not bulletproof. He's already had ACL/MCL reconstruction and A/C joint repair.

As for the Mets factor, I think it's plausible that he could have turned his nose up at an offer that was on par with a similar one from another team based upon the team's reputation for front office/ownership-induced chaos, but for as much as I bust on the Mets, I have a harder time seeing him spit on the largest mutiyear offer he's received simply because of that reputation. Money talks first.

Bauer

12:47

So we've got ourselves a real Curt Schilling on our hands here, in several ways.

Jay Jaffe

12:47

Uh-oh, what now?

Dave

12:48

If a meatball sub was a baseball player, what position would it play?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

Right field. Big power hitter, good batting eye, but low batting average, loses hits to the shift, is pokey on the basepaths, and probably a future DH.

Al Pal

12:49

Fwiw, Strat/Showdown lives again currently with Clutch Baseball (clutchmoment.com), who are doing a great job with the game. Not affiliated, just really passionate about all three.

Jay Jaffe

12:49

For those interested in such things, there's a lead...

Hammer

12:49

I feel like Roy Oswalt was a great pitcher, and while I think he'll fall short, he seems to be getting no support or discussion which is a little surprising to me.

Jay Jaffe

12:52

Oswalt pitched only 2245.1 major league innings, which leaves his counting stats short, and he never won a Cy Young award or a World Series. This ballot is loaded with pitchers with bigger numbers and more hardware and so finding room for him among the 10 slots is nearly impossible. It's a shame, because he was a damn good pitcher who had HOF-caliber talent, but he's not the first to succumb to injuries instead of realizing it fully.

As doomed as his candidacy is, I enjoyed writing at length about his career rather than including him in the One-and-Done pile (which I had to do with Tejada due to scheduling).

Dave

12:52

Does Arenado have to leave Colorado to be a HOF candidate given the struggles that Walker and now Helton have had?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

The book is most definitely NOT closed on Walker, and Helton will at least stick around on the ballot. For as strong as both were defensively, Arenado is in another world in terms of the way his defense is perceived while being backed by strong metrics. All of which is to say that I think you're guilty of premature extrapolation with regards to his Hall of Fame case

12:55

And speaking of Walker: managing editor Meg Rowley has perfect timing in notifying me that my piece for today is ready https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-big-...

Mike

12:56

Is Jeff Kent the player from this era who makes the most sense of missing the HOF now but getting the nod by the Era Committee 15 years from now?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

I think Fred McGriff is the most likely to succeed in front of a small committee, and I'd also put Kent in that class because that group seems to need a simple, non-analytical hook for a candidate to catch their attention. Most HR by a 2B would fit that.

brad

12:57

dozier puts Nats over $200MM payroll, is there still room for Harper?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

The Nationals have reportedly upped their initial 10-year, $300 million offer, so I believe the answer is still yes. I'd expect them to do some paring if they land him — somebody else here asked about Adam Eaton and it would be a reasonable assumption that they think about trading him.

Justin Verlander

1:00

I know Fangraphs did an article last year, and Crawfishboxes just did an updated one on if he would be a Hall of Famer if he retired today. What is your take?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Wrote about him in late August https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/verlander-and-the-200-win-club/

LPFan

1:00

What's your favorite baseball video game?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

I haven't played any in a long, long time. I loved the Intellivision one when I was a kid, c. 1980, but we had to go to a family friend's house to play it, and that was particularly rare

Roger

1:02

The ballot tracker has Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling in the 73.2%-74.4% range. Should we expect all 3 drop off some in the final voting? I would think those who reveal their ballots in advance tend to be more progressive than those who don't. Has there been any analysis of past trends between these 2 groups?

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