JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:03

The projections done by Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) center around a 3-year average of the public-vs-private split. Here's his latest, and there are links within there to explanations about his methodology

Edgar and Mussina are both UP in my latest #HOF projections. tinyurl.com/NRHOF2019

Andy

1:03

Jason Varitek’ 4 caught no hitters and solid play put him in consideration for Hall?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Varitek received 0.5% when he appeared on the ballot in 2017. 1,307 career hits — see the Rule of 2,000 above. Also just 21.5 JAWS, less than half that of the average HOF catcher (44.0). Was never a strong candidate despite those notable accomplishments you mention.

Jim

1:05

It looks more likely that Harper could sign with Washington. If that happens, what do they do with their outfield? They have to play Victor Robles everyday, don't they?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

It's a logjam, for sure. and yes, I think it would yield a Soto-Robles-Harper configuration, with Eaton on the outbound.

Matt W

1:06

He's always been a sentimental favorite of mine because he helped me win a fantasy title way back when, but did we ever get a reason why Javier Vazquez was left off the HOF ballot completely?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Nobody official ever gives reasons about this kind of stuff but it probably had to do with his 4.22 career ERA and 165 wins — numbers that won't get anybody elected. Note that we had guys with lesser credentials on this ballot, like Lilly, Garcia, Oliver and Jon Garland, suggesting that the screening committee was a wee bit more inclusive if not comprehensive (Ryan Dempster could have easily been in that group but did not make the cut).

Astros

1:09

Who do you think the next player that makes the HoF as an Astro is?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Jose Altuve, probably? Verlander and Beltran won't be wearing Astros caps.

Ariel White

1:10

When can we expect a summary of the fan HoF balloting that Fangraphs ran?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I have the results. Right now i think we're going to run that on the morning of 1/22 as my election preview piece, since 1/21 is Martin Luther King Day, a national holiday.

Brick

1:11

Reports are Miguel Sano is down 30 lbs - if not more - and absolutely destroyed a pitch in the DWL a few nights ago. Is he one of the bigger bounce-back candidates in baseball this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Bigger in size, sure. And yeah, in terms of track record, too. If he stays healthy...

Soup for thought

1:12

I thought a meatball sub was a reliever with a straight fastball...

Jay Jaffe

1:12

well played, sir.

Dragon's Milk

1:13

What's your go to Stout? how about an everyday Amber?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Sam Smith's Oatmeal Stout, North Coast's Old Rasputin, Left Hand's Milk Stout and Founders' Breakfast Stout (not Kentucky Breakfast Stout, a rare treat) are some go-tos. Just bought a 6-pack of Stone's Xocoveza, which is outstanding. Brooklyn Black Ops is an annual treat.

1:17

As for ambers, man i used to drink a lot of them but not so much anymore because my wife doesn't drink them and if you're going to the store you gotta come home with two six-packs... Lagunitas' Censored Rich Copper Ale (aka The Kronik) was a go-to, as was Peak Amber and , if you permit me a bit of latitude, Brooklyn Brown Ale and Smuttynose's Old Brown Dog

PM

1:18

Would you agree the biggest injustice of the 10 limit rule is that it causes players to be one who done who at least deserved several more seasons and cycles of appreciation even if they weren't HOF worthy?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

It's certainly one of the big injustices, but that aspect could be done away with if the Five Percent Rule were adjusted or discarded.

Rusty

1:19

Have you ever played OOTP? If so, what are your thoughts on the gameplay?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

No. I have a full plate keeping up with actual baseball, not to mention the responsibilities that come with being a husband and father. Right now, I can't even find enough time to read many books, which really sucks.

Pitch_Out

1:21

I think the Curt Schilling reference above was regarding his username choice of 'Bauer' and inferring the similarities between the two...

Jay Jaffe

1:22

ah. In the heat of answering questions I sometimes don't even notice user names, and that was one such instance. Yes, Trevor Bauer needs to Log Off, to say the least.

RockStar

1:22

Next year with Jeter being the only first ballot guy, and Moose most likely off the ballot, will Walker and Schilling have a chance??

Jay Jaffe

1:24

See today's piece re: Walker. Schilling... if he gets to 60%, he's in the same boat, in theory, but his candidacy is a singular one in terms of the way he's crossed lines and burnt bridges. I don't think he can depend on the type of groundswell most candidates get once they get above 60%

Dan

1:24

Do you think its fair for Joe Mauer to be considered a catcher for the HOF? Less than half of his games are at the position and his numbers at 1b or DH are much less impressive. To me hes not a hall of famer.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Should Ernie Banks have been considered a first baseman because he played out the string there? Bro, do you even lift?

Most of Mauer's value — all of his top 7 seasons that go into his peak score within my JAWS system, plus his MVP award, his batting titles, his Gold Gloves, his All-Star appearances — came while he was catching. Everything that made his career special, in other words.

Patrick

1:26

I'm thoroughly confused by the screening committee process, and wish it was more discussed. It seems like there's no criteria, and it's just kind of haphazard

Jay Jaffe

1:28

There's not much light shed upon it because of the presumption that nobody (or nearly nobody) cares. It's a committee of 6 guys, generally pretty grizzled ones, and you have to be nominated by two of them to make it to the ballot. Whether they sit around and do this over lunch or simply make their lists and somebody collates all of them, I'm actually not sure. But yes, guys do slip through the cracks.

Hammer

1:28

How long do you think it will be until Advanced Analytics are widely used in HoF evaluations?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I mean, how advanced? Happily, I've lost track of the number of voters who cite WAR and JAWS in their ballot explainers, and we're not yet at the point where candidates have ANY Statcast data to draw upon.

slicedfriedgold

1:29

Looking at Nathaniel Rakich's projections, it strikes me odd that Bonds and Clemens have any gap, as they're both obviously slam dunk candidates that have the same reason they're not in, and that's a connection to steroids. Gut instinct, do you feel like for HOF voters, a connection to steroids is worse for hitters than pitchers? Or do you think it's just weird voter noise?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I wrote a bit about the Bonds/Clemens split yesterday and some potential reasons why it may be. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-loos.... Long story short, yes, there's a presumption that PEDs help hitters more than pitchers. But I don't know how somebody could look at Clemens' Cy Young wins at 38 and 41 (numbers six and seven!) and view them in a drastically different light than Bonds' HR records.

Nick Stone

1:33

Jay, what's going on with the Yankees? After years of saving pennies, isn't now the time to crack open the safe for one of these young, generational talents? If not now, when? Is the Yankees revenue down or is this some 8th dimensional chess Cashman is playing?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Hey Nick! It really is a puzzle, because for so long we've heard about the Yankees (and the Dodgers) wanting to re-set their tax rate in time for the big winter of 2018-2019 free agent class... which admittedly did not live up to the hype, with Kershaw staying put and guys like Harper and Donaldson entering the market off a less-than-stellar season.

The best that can be said about this situation vis a vis the Yankees is that 1) they've been burned by big long-term deals for the likes of A-Rod (version 2) and Ellsbury; 2) at most, they appear to have short-term needs at the positions that Harper and Machado play (Didi's injury-related absence from SS); fitting either of those two into the lineup would involve position switches (Andujar or Harper to 1B, maybe?) or trades.

Is that enough for the sudden change in the way they do business when it comes to 26-year-old generational talents? I don't think so, and right now I think it's strange what's going on not just there but all around the game, with the limited markets for even the top free agents that so many were salivating over just a year ago.

Scott

1:39

With Baines in the Hall and Edgar on the verge, when will there be a separate JAWS category for DH?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I don't foresee adding one anytime soon. Baines' JAWS is so low that if you're just going on the average of him and Edgar, you're going to get some exceedingly silly results and wind up with Hal McRae and Chili Davis on stage in Cooperstown.

Ariel White

1:41

Every makes a big deal of Schilling's antics and about other player's PEDs (whatever side the end up falling in terms of the voting), but almost no one seems to mention domestic violence such as in the case of Andruw Jones, unless they just do it in passing and even then I haven't seen anyone decide not to vote for him because of that. This is voting for an award, not to give someone a contract to play (and even then, see Chery's article on Addison Russell, what would she say?). What message does this send to victims of abuse?

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