JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

Jay Jaffe

12:01

Hey hey folks, happy almost mid-January. Welcome to today's chat. I'm going to give the queue a few minutes to get stocked. Hot Stove and Hall of Fame questions, ask away

Larry Walker

12:03

Can I snatch victory from the JAWS of defeat?

Jay Jaffe

12:05

I certainly hope so! But I'm nervous because this doesn't look like the election days of Raines and Edgar, both of whom sailed in with like 85% in their final years. The recent projections I've seen based upon the tracker and various models have gone both ways — just over the line and just short, but with the odds tilting towards the former. I have to admit I'm quite nervous

Dave

12:05

Hi Jay, what does your crystal ball say about next week’s announcement of the HOF voting results?

Jay Jaffe

12:06

Aside from the nailbiter with Walker, I do think jeter will be unanimous, that Schilling will be in high 60s and Bonds/Clemens in the low 60s.

Travis

12:06

The number of ballots tracked by the HoF Tracker is behind last year's pace - do you sense a reticence from some voters to reveal their choices before the big reveal itself? Is there a reaction by writers with votes to the vitriol on social media? (The Purdy ratio immediately comes to mind)

Jay Jaffe

12:09

I don't know if its reticence or a shrinking media (fewer outlets to publish ballot explainers) or a smaller voting body (voters being sunsetted out of the electorate). I was surprised, for example, that there were just 6 MLB.com writers in the latest reveal (also six last year) but 13 two years ago. Right now i think it's tough to get a sense of the big picture

Joel

12:09

How competitive will the Cardinals be even if they land Arenado and sign an OF (likely Ozuna)?

Jay Jaffe

12:11

Well, some of that depends on what they give up to get Arenado, but I'd think they'd be contenders given the addition of another big bat to the lineup and the conversion of their outfield surplus to fill other areas of need.

mmddyyyy

12:11

If we're only going to go once, how old should the kids be when they visit the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

I think that varies. How much does the kid know about baseball history, and how eager to learn is s/he? Does what we might call the black-and-white era appeal to him/her? Are there players s/he watched who are now enshrined? In terms of younger ones, I think the Hall will have less impact on any kid who isn't geared to read about baseball's history in some form, or at least have some way to connect to a few players enshrined.

Dave

12:15

What position do you think currently has the most potential HOF inductees among active players? 3B?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

it's probably either SS or 3B, and some of it depends on bouncing back from injuries. Lindor's off to a great start. Can Correa and Seager get back their momentum? Simmons, too? also, will Gleyber and Tatis Jr. stick? As for 3B, can Donaldson play well into his late 30s? Will Arenado's bat hold up with a move to lower altitude? Can Machado shake off a mediocre 2019?

mmddyyyy

12:18

Can voters voluntarily withdraw from the voting process?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

Sure. We've seen voters renounce their ballots. There was that Ken Gurnick one a few years ago where he voted for Jack Morris (but not Greg Maddux) and declared that he wanted nothing to do with further ballots due to the PED factor

Dave

12:21

Favorite dish to cook during a cold weekend in?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

Lamb Ragu, which i can now do in the Instant Pot as well as the oven/stove. Learning how to do that was like unlocking a cheat code to a certain level of happiness.

John

12:23

With the recent Arenado trade rumors, what do you think the Cards would have to give up for him?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I saw this tweet and without knowing a ton about Liberatore I think it's a decent starting point

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago is reporting that he heard this trade offer made by the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado: Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, and Tyler O'Neill. #stlcards

Hudson has just 1+ year of service time, Martinez has options stretching to 2023, Liberatore is a prospect.. that's a lot of players for multiple years

mike

12:26

So the Twins failed to acquire good pitching. Now what? Is there actually anyone available in trade?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

The Twins went the bulk route — Bailey, Hill, Clippard, plus re-ups of Pineda (who will miss some time with suspension) , Romo and Odorizzi. That's not wildly exciting but it's not nothing. If your'e sitting around waiting for a trade, i'd suggest tempering your expectations until late July because I wouldn't expect much to happen in the near future

Dave

12:28

Does Bobby Abreu make it to play another day?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

I hope so but I think it's a coin toss, and other than the distinction of not being one-and-done, i'm not sure it matters much. I'm not thoroughly convinced myself, and I'm much more predisposed to consider him than most voters.

Mike Ford

12:30

I realize my Princeton degree does not qualify to play first base for the Yankees, but how about my very high exit velo?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

You're in the picture, but so is a surgically repaired Luke Voit, and lord knows what happens with Miguel Andujar

Josh Donaldson

12:31

Is my ego holding up the process?

Jay Jaffe

12:34

I imagine the holdup is the willingness of teams to give a guaranteed 4th year to a player for his age-37 season. "Ego" is a stupid way of thinking about it — this is probably the biggest bite of the apple he's going to get and if he wants to chase every penny, or find the best situation for himself and his family, well, that's what the process is for.

Uh Oh

12:35

Assuming Jeter gets in, Walker gets in/ages off, and there isn't a massive swell of support for Tim Hudson/Mark Buehrle...how likely is it that next year is a solo class of <gulp> Schilling?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

it's possible, though there will be two Era Committee votes, one for the Early Baseball slate (to 1949) and the other for the Golden Era slate (1950-69). Both were shutouts in their last time under the previous format but the Hall better hope like hell that they get somebody(s) in. that said, I'm not sure people are going to flock to C-town for a Schilling-plus induction, whether it's Dick Allen, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Doc Adams, or Bill Dahlen on the undercard

mmddyyyy

12:38

Does every position currently have an active future hall member?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

I'd have to think about that one. Maybe for an upcoming piece.

12:39

Your thoughts on the game tonight?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

who's pitching?

100%

12:41

Say Jeter goes 100. Who might the next one be? Ortiz is beloved but DH etc. Ichiro is slighted by some. Beltre was underappreciated. (And I'm so glad it's now this discussion instead of "will anyone ever")

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I think i said last week that it would be Ichiro or Beltre, but somebody pointed out this absurdity from a voter who coincidentally was one of the first to publish his ballot this year. So maybe Ichiro

Good player. Not a Hall of Famer.

Only 4 players have amassed 3,000 hits, 600 doubles, 1,600 RBIs, 1,100 XBH & 5,000 total bases.

ALL are within Beltre’s reach in 2017.

12:44

It won't be Ortiz due to the DH and PED factors, if not the fact that JAWS isn't keen on him

matt

12:45

Collin McHugh is a fun free agent... where do you think he signs and do you think there's any chance another team lets him try to be a starter again in 2020?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

I'd imagine any shot at starting depends on his health and that of the other alternatives. if he's healthy he's probably worth a #6 spot, a guy who can move into the rotation if he's healthy and somebody else is hurt rather than a guy penciled in for 30 starts as a 4 or 5.

stever20

12:46

Didn't the HOF announcement used to be like today or tomorrow? Why did they push it back?

Jay Jaffe

12:47

IIRC, It was moved a few years ago i think due to hotel scheduling issues (?) but i'm not sure why they've kept it there. Doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat