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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20
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Johnnt5Alive
12:47
What are the dodgers doing? I know they move their pitchers in and out of the rotation and "IL" but does the Nelson and Wood signings suggest maybe Gonsolin or May are in a potential trade for Lindor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I don't think May's going to be traded, and I also don't think that the signing of those two guys indicates anything is afoot or particularly different than before — Wood was always a guy who if healthy and right w/b a starter and if not, well, that's what depth is for. May, Gonsolin, and Urias may be guys they're counting on to give them quality time in the rotation but all will have some kind of innings restrictions on them too
Alec
12:49
Do you have ballot access next year Jay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I will have my ballot next year, yes.
Grubbin it with Gruber
12:49
I keep forgetting how good Vada Pinson was ... how does he do with JAWS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
he's 18th among CF, short of all 3 standards (54.3/40.0/47.1) and behind Edmonds, Willie Davis, and Jimmy Wynn, but ahead of the BBWAA-elected Kirby Puckett. Had 40.3 WAR banked through age 26 (1963) but Just 14.0 thereafter, and done by the time he turned 37.
Alex
12:52
What type of punishment in terms of suspensions/bans/draft pick and IFA losses/etc. do you expect the Astros to get? Think the Red Sox are on track to get a similar type of discipline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
wouldn't surprise me if we see Luhnow and Hinch suspended for a year, and the loss of draft picks and int'l money, but how much, I don't know. Also a suspension for Cora, once the Red Sox investigation is done. A lot depends on how forthcoming MLB feels they were during the investigation, and really, we're all just guessing.
Alec
12:54
Do Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle have a chance to get 5% next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
doubtful
Kurupt FM
12:54
Because WAR is cumulative and pitchers go less innings nowadays do you think there will come a point where so few pitchers meet the JAWS standard that we'll have to rethink it's use?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
It's something I've already thought about a lot. I have some ideas but not room to go into them here.
Mike in Fort Wayne
12:55
Who are the guys on the ballot that you scratch your head and wonder why they do not get more support for the Hall of Fame? Mine is Shilling.  Personality and politics aside-he checked the boxes for me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
the one that puzzles me is Kent, who holds the record for HR by a second basemen and routinely drove in 100 runs — I would have thought he'd get a lot of support from more traditional-minded voters even if his JAWS was mediocre. Yet he's polling only about 28% while guys like Rolen and Helton and Sheffield are blowing past him after getting even less support previously
Max
12:59
Rolen's not getting in this year (and probably not next either), but this sort of jump puts him on track for Cooperstown, right? It's been really fantastic seeing how much support he's picked up this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
He's not gonna finish at 50% this year (where he is on the tracker) but it does seem possible that he's going to get around 40%, and if that's the case I think he's on his way — maybe not even in 2 years but building gradually towards 75%.
Bart
1:00
Will J Martinez get more playing time now and realize his potential?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
he got 590 PA in 2018 so it's not like he's an unknown commodity. Due can hit but not much else. I'd expect a 2+ win season
Arby Tration
1:03
Any big surprises on the arbitration front so far?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
I can't say I followed it very closely or thought tremendously hard about it given how busy I was. I'm always surprised when teams and players aren't far apart but heading towards a hearing.
Re arb, Craig Edwards is worth a read https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-we-learned-from-arbitration-de... and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand had a good piece as well
Stephen Carlton Clark
1:05
Speaking of Cooperstown, I bet you didn't know that in addition to founding it, I purchased stolen art on the black market from the Soviet Union in the 1930s.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I hadn't heard that one but it doesn't surprise me. Nothing does, when it comes to rich people and dubiously acquired art. Haven't read this yet but keeping a tab open.  https://web.archive.org/web/20090602184639/http://www.courant.com/news...
Roy C.
1:06
I find it crazy that just ten years ago a 111 WAR (!) Rickey Henderson had 28 voters say he was not a Hall of Famer, and five years ago 16 voters said Greg Maddux/15 said Randy Johnson were not Hall of Famers. What do you think the biggest change has been for why over a dozen, two dozen in Rickey's case, voters could have no problem saying no to 100+ WAR players but Mariano was and Jeter seems to be on easy paths to unanimity?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
the process is more transparent now, for better and for worse. We know who's not voting for these guys and they'll hear about it if they're off base.

BTW, i'd think this would go without saying but I would encourage you to engage respectfully if you disagree with a voter's ballot and want to speak up. There are a lot of differing points of view as to what makes a Hall of Famer, and while some voters — like the 1-vote types — frustrate me to no end, that doesn't make them bad people or bad at their jobs. Calling them names isn't going to change their minds and is more likley to do harm to the cause of a more transparent vote than good.
ajnrules
1:09
What was the most surprising thing you learned about the one-and-done players when writing their profile?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
oh, there were some gems. I knew about Adam Dunn's brief time as a U of Texas QB but it's still surprising to read about. Jose Valverde worked in a cheesecake factory as a teen. Heath Bell was a 69th-round draft choice. Both had noteworthy save streaks that I'd long forgotten about.. Raul Ibanez started his pro career as a catcher (as did Paul Konerko, which I knew). Carlos Pena's family emigrated from the DR, Ibanez's from Cuba. All of these guys have interesting stories and did a great job of carving out careers.
Chris
1:12
Why is the outfield market so slow? Is castellanos holding it up like Donaldson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Probably because the best of the outfielders (Ozuna, Castellanos, Puig, Gardner, Dickerson) weren't game-changers in the grand scheme, placing them much lower in priority than the other big-name free agents.
Don't Let Kent Hrbek Sit On You
1:14
Do you miss the simpler time when the ballot was uncrowded and one-and-done guys like Jim Deshaies could get a career achievement vote?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
The 2001 election where Deshaies got his one vote was the last one I didn't cover. Kirby Puckett was elected that year, Gary Carter fell short for the 4th time at 64.9%, and Lou Whitaker went one-and done — did the guy who gave Deshaies the token support include Whitaker? I doubt it, so that's a total failure. Things are much better now than they were then as far as HOF elections go.
Yankees' Injured List
1:17
Is there a HoF veterans committee case to be made for Willie Randolph?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Eh, he's kind of a lite version of Whitaker, with far less power, nine less WAR and a slightly lower peak. A part of multip WS teams but terrible postseason numbers and he missed all of October 1978. I'd put him 4th on my want list, significantly below Grich/Whitaker/Utley
Alex
1:19
Could you see Maybin returning to the Yankees on a 1 year mlb or minor league type deal if he’s still not signed come Spring Training?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Possible. They have to figure out what to do with Frazier, which probably isn't riding the pine in the Bronx, and with Hicks having undergone TJ, that leaves them with Judge, Stanton, Gardner, and Tauchman for the bulk of the playing time if everybody is healthy. Room for a 5th, definitely
Ryan
1:22
What do you think of the new Outs Above Average data for infielders?  The usual suspects top the charts (Arenado, Simmons, etc.), but as a Reds fan I was pleasantly surprised to see Freddy Galvis rate so well (to say nothing of seeing that Didi Gregorious might not have been such a great fit for the Reds after all).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Intriguing at first glance. Will certainly be something I look at alongside other metrics going forward.
1:23
I like how it handles shifts by noting where players were positioned
Alex
1:25
What type of contract would you expect James Paxton to command (now if the Yankees try to re-sign him or later in FA)? Something similar to the Ryu deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
I think the Ryu deal is a pretty good starting point. Lefty in early 30s, good pitcher when healthy, which isn't always. I'd be very surprised if he signs an extension given that this is his walk year
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