JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/17/19

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Jay Jaffe

12:46

Hey gang, it's my staycation week but a short window opened up in my schedule and I decided to take some questions. So let's talk some baseball!

Mat

12:47

Jayson Stark recently posted his HOF ballot. With his voting for a Closer, DH, Coors players, and PED suspected players, do you believe all HOF barriers have now been broken?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

People have been voting for various categories within your list for a long time. We've had relievers in the Hall since Hoyt Wilhelm was elected in 1985, with five getting in from 2004 (Eckersley) onward. DH's — depends on your definition but Paul Molitor (elected 2003) had a plurality of his games there, and now . PEDs, let's not be naive, there are already users enshrined. And people — not a lot of them, but some — have been voting for Larry Walker since he hit the ballot in 2011.

Now, whether we get our first Coors player in is another matter...

12:51

Is Joey Votto a hall of famer if he retires today?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

From a JAWS standpoint, he's close enough that I would vote for him — above on peak ( 58.8/46.1/52.4 for him, 66.8/42.7/54.7 for the standards) but with only 1,729 hits, he'd still have the Rule of 2,000 resistance to overcome, and right now that's pretty daunting.

Alec

12:54

Today is his birthday. Do you think Don Zimmer should be in the Hall Of fame as a ambassador of the game?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

Well, what you're talking about I guess would fall under the Buck O'Neill Lifetime Achievement Award, which is given out at most once every three years, and not a full-fledged membership (not unlike the distinction between Frick and Spink winners and the plaques for players, managers, execs and umps). I can imagine it's a pretty long line of people who deserve such an honor, and Zim would seem to be among them.

12:57

God, I do miss the Zim. The death of Mel Stottlemyre this past week really served to remind what a great staff those late 1990s teams had under Joe Torre. Stottlemyre, Zimmer and Tony Cloninger are all on the great bench in the sky.

Roger

12:57

Think David Cone has a shot at the Hall on some sort of future Veteran's Committee? He seems like a guy who was victimized by his low career wins total, but who might get more support from people these days who are not as concerned with the wins stat.

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Down the road, yes, I think he might have a chance. But it's worth remembering tha this career was a relatively short one, with 2898.2 innings. Roy Halladay will be just the second starter since Koufax to be elected with fewer than 3,000 innings (Pedro Martinez the first).

Alec

12:58

Is Clayton Kershaw a first ballot hall of Famer if he retires today or next season?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Yeah. Obviously the career totals aren't there, and maybe not the post-death boost (as in the case of Halladay), but the dominance as outlined by the three Cy Youngs and all the black ink is pretty clear.

Ryan

1:00

Kinsler or Pedroia if you had to pick one for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

Kinsler is one notch ahead of Pedroia in the JAWS rankings (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml) but Pedroia has the higher peak (57.3/40.4/48.9 for Ian, 52.1/42.4/47.3 for Dustin), the MVP and the rings. He's a better candidate.

Alec

1:02

Also who are some 2020 first timers beside Jeter than Will probably be Hall Of famers?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Of next years first-time eligibles, nobody besides Jeter is even gonna make it to a 2nd year, I don't think. The next three guys in order as far as JAWS is concerned are Bobby Abreu (whom I love but was massively underrated during his career and isn't strong enough with respect to the advanced stats), Jason Giambi (BALCO) and Cliff Lee (Roy Oswalt with a Cy Young).

1:06

Which of the three portions of your JAWS triple slash do you feel to be most important? Or say if a player only eclipsed one which do prefer it be to earn your vote

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I used to be tilted more towards the career WAR side, now I'm more towards the peak side. If a guy has a peak score above the standard, plus circumstances that shortened his career — guys like Dick Allen and Johan Santana — I'd vote for them, assuming I could fit them on my ballot. I couldn't really fit the latter last year, though.

Captain ACAB

1:09

Who is the best player who never got to the second ballot?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I more or less answered this via Twitter recently (

top 5 position players: Lou Whitaker 75.1 WAR, Bobby Grich 71.1, Ron Santo 70.5 (elected VC), Kenny Lofton 68.3, Bu… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

) but we can omit Santo because he's in and he did in fact get back onto the writers' ballot even before that). By bWAR: Lou Whitaker 75.1 WAR, Bobby Grich 71.1, Kevin Brown 68.4, Kenny Lofton 68.3, Buddy Bell 66.3.

Brian

1:11

At this point in the offseason, what kind of contract do you see Marwin Gonzalez getting?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

He deserves more but I think he'll get an AAV around $12 million, as Lowrie and LeMahieu did. It should be for 4 years given his age but maybe he has to settle. Who the hell knows anymore in this frozen-ass market?

Tyler

1:13

Was Roy Oswalt was better than David Cone? His peak looks a lot better.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Via my system, Cone has Oswalt beat across the board (career/peak/JAWS) in part because he's got about 700 more innings. He ranks 63rd in JAWS to Oswalt's 102nd (see https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml). He was much more of a strikeout pitcher than Oswalt (which shows up there) and outside of that, won a Cy Young and had a much greater postseason presence. No question in my mind Coney is the better candidate, though I think both had Hall-caliber talent.

Ben

1:17

Is it at all possible that most of us, myself included, have misjudged Machado's market value? Should he really get a contract that is TWICE AS BIG as Heyward's?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I don't think what we're seeing is a true reflection of Machado's market value so much as it is a reflection of a broken system. Which, you could argue, means that his value in *this market* is something we've been overestimating and misjudging, but I think there's a fair bit of bad faith involved in the way this market has failed to materialize and the curious, simultaneous non-spending of the Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs and other clubs.

aka22

1:20

Please help me understand the mind of anyone who would vote for Vizquel over Andruw?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Longevity. It's that simple. One guy got close to 3,000 hits even as a bad hitter, the other guy fell short of 2,000 even while being a pretty decent one.

Kevin

1:21

As a former Youth Service League player as a teenager, I'm a bit bias in hoping that Manny Ramirez makes the HOF, even being a Yankees fan. I know PED usage is his biggest negative, but his defense was also horrific. I noticed though that (at least by fWAR), he would he been much more valuable solely as a DH, even with the worse positional adjustment. Should scenarios like this be taken into account when judging a player for the HOF, when he could have had a higher WAR and clearly more valuable, but the position he played was out of his control?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

It's worth thinking about but one thing to note with regards to Manny is that in terms of the way bWAR is constructed, it's probably a wash. Take a look at his defensive WAR numbers (that's positional adjustment + fielding metric): -21.7 for a career of 9,774 PA, of which only 14% were as a DH. David Ortiz, in a career of 10,091 PA, of which 87% were as a DH, had a defensive WAR of -20.9. Not much difference.

Where it might be worth re-thinking a bit more is with regards to Sheffield (-27.7 dWAR in 10,947 PA), who got moved all around the diamond and probably should have been moved out of the infield more quickly. But as he played for NL teams for the vast majority of his career, one really has to reimagine his path, and that's harder to do.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

1:26

Do you ever look at Adam Darrowski's "Hall of Stats"? I've for years thought that Jerry Koosman has been unfairly completely ignored in HoF discussions, but I see that he's in the HoS.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Adam does very nice work, and I check his stuff out when I can. I think Koosman's underrated but I don't see him as being a better candidate — including the things that go beyond where bWAR and JAWS can take us — than Tommy John (80th in JAWS) or Jim Kaat (110th, where Koos is 101st). Both of those guys have Hall of Fame Monitor scores well above 100, where he's at 59, for example.

Cove Dweller

1:29

Does Marvin Miller have a better chance than Pete Rose of getting into the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Yes, because he's the only one in that sentence who is actually eligible.

Russell

1:30

Will the Fangraphs HoF voting come out at a similar time to the actual results? Will you have counts for all of the vote combinations as I would love to see how many voted the same as me.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I have the info and it will run on the morning of the announcement. Not sure how granular I'll be able to get, but with this heads up, i now have a reminder to check in with Sean Dolinar and see what kind of breakdowns he can provide.

andy

1:31

is the kiddo in daycare while you staycation?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Kiddo is in day care MWF, I take her Tuesdays and my sainted mother-in-law (the great Paula Span, of NY Times aging and wellness coverage "fame") comes in from Montclair, NJ to take her on Thursdays.

Jeff

1:32

What do you think a guy like Craig Kimbrel has to do to make the HOF one day?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Reverse what appear to be the early signs of decline from total f'ing dominance. I wrote about him and Kenley Jansen (to whom the same concerns apply) at the outset of the World Series. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-potent...

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Connecting…

Alec

5:49

Have people overacted to Harold Baines get elected to the Hall? Because I think the VC made up that with putting in Lee Smith

The Decadent Moose

6:02

Better hitter among last season's rookies: Acuña or Soto. And I mean moving forward. Thanks!

The Old Buccaneer

5:50

What do you think the real amount Chicago’s offering to Machado is?

Mr. PiPoto

5:51

Who is my best trading partner for Encarnacion and what could I expect to get in return?

Slapshot

5:52

ESPN put up a small headline on their main page today asking if Harper and/or Machado will sign by Super Bowl Sunday. Do you think it happens by then, or do you think it might stretch into the opening of training camp?

Captain ACAB

5:53

What percent of your success do you attribute to coming along at the right time vs hard work and talent (which you have in spades by the way)?

Tyler

5:54

Most of Eckersley's value comes as a starter why do you list him as a reliever?

Ben

5:54

Jason Heyward is what he is but Machado and Harper are essentially hoping for double what he got. I feel like owners are right to be a little leery of handing out 300 or 350 or more. Not saying those guys aren't "worth it". But they should try to get those guys for as little as they can, right? Business is business.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

5:56

You

Captain ACAB

5:57

How does Dusty Baker stack up as a manager for HOF consideration?

Alec

5:57

Is Chase Utley really a Hall Of Famer?

Brian

5:58

What would be a far return for the Giants in a Will Smith trade?

Klenny

5:58

would a non-guaranteed run at Trout in 2021 really prevent the phillies from signing both harper and machado if theres an opportunity to do so?

Captain ACAB

5:59

David Come is probably sweating bullets that he'll get me too-ed any day now. Doubt he'd ever get into the Hall in this day and age.

Ben

6:00

The Heyward contract has been widely panned due to his offensive output. I get that. But the Cubs have a ring and had a chance at two more (having made the tournament). It's not like it's sunk the franchise. How do you see it?

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

6:00

Years ago, I would have been appalled by the Harold Baines induction, but I have come around to the "big hall" side. I now think of the HoF as a museum for fans, and why not have as many fan favorites in there as is reasonable.

Alec

6:01

What do you think Next Year’s Modern Baseball Committee Ballot will be like? Who are the newcomers and who is leftoff and who gets in?

Ben

6:02

If the Cubs signed Harper, it would virtually guarantee that they'll lose Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez to free agency after 2021. Since they're not going to sign him, they may be able to extend/re-sign two of the three. Which two would you choose to keep?

The Critics' Critic

6:02

Harrison Bader... is it reasonable to expect some offensive regression this year? Big swing-and-miss, extreme righty/lefty splits, below-average EV. Thanks again for doing these!

stever20

6:03

if the tracker that is so great ever got so many ballots that we'd know a guy is inducted before the announcement, do you think the HOF would do something about that?

Phil

6:05

Will Chris Sale need to win a Cy Young to make it into the Hall if he continues to pitch they way that he has?

Trent

6:06

We talk a lot about the character clause negatively impacting people like Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, etc. Who are some current or near-term future HOF candidates who might *benefit* from the clause?

Jon Weisman

6:08

What are the best examples -- if any -- of players who were basically sure Hall of Famers mid-career but stayed around too long and lowered their career averages enough to knock them out of Cooperstown?

Mrs jaffe

6:08

Do you have a bigger chance for the hof cause you write about it

Trey

6:09

Tim Lincecum and Denny McClain: Is it amazing how similar their careers turned out to be?

Dan

6:11

Why not change the name to the National Baseball Museum at Cooperstown, giving entry to every player who's been on a MLB roster, then have special rotating exhibits for outstanding players on a season-by-season basis?

Naveed shah

6:12

I would like to know what does it means that when pitch movement tell nagative or positive l

Egg

6:12

Are you voting for Giant Hat in 2020?

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

6:14

Since you can get into the Hall as only a

Casual fan

6:15

How many more years does Andrelton Simmons need to play at his current level to make a case for the HOF? How many more seasons does he need to play in total? How many does he need to play in an Angels cap to wear one in the hall? His best seasons so far have been with the Halos and he is signed through 2020

Lunch Break

6:15

How seriously should we consider the Phillies a suitor for Kimbrel? Outside of them seems like Boston is likely to just sit back and wait like they did last season for JD.

Alec

6:15

I feel like Robin Ventura is a solid Today’s Game candiate.

Alec

6:15

How do you think of that?

Heathcliff Slocumb

6:16

Any particular reason Ottavino looks like one of the last dominoes to fall in the RP market?

YKnotDisco?!

6:18

Do you have any favorite HoF "fun facts" or statistics?

Trey

6:19

If you were putting together a list of the ten most *influential* players in the game's history, who besides the obvious candidates (Ruth, Robinson, etc.) would be on it? Curt Flood? Tommy John? Others?

Jeff

6:20

Chuck Finley or Andy Pettitte?

Alec

6:20

I always always thought another underrated Veteran Committee candidate was Bobby Shantz. Probably one of the best relievers of his time. What do you think of that?

Nelson

6:21

It seemed questionable at the time, but now the Stanton trade to the Yankees seems downright horrible. If they didnt have him, they'd have Harper and Machado by now

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:21

Who is the next HOF candidate to pull a Vizquel where he initially might not be viewed as a serious candidate but then voting reveals stronger support (especially among the non-analytics voters)?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:22

What would the Angles have to do to keep Trout even somewhat interested in staying?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:23

Are the moves the phillies have made good enough to save their atrocious defense?

audrey horne's dream dance

6:23

As a Red Sox fan, no to the gerbil getting into the HoF

Pat's Bat

6:24

Why don't teams give veterans token at bats to reset their HoF clocks? I bet Bonds would still be an above average hitter.

JKD

6:24

What's an effective way for fans to register our displeasure with owners' skinflint ways?

Casual fan

6:24

Do you see players signing early extensions, after their first year, to buy out TC and arb to give them more money initially? AAV might be a little more in favor of teams overall, but players will get more money up front

audrey horne's dream dance

6:25

I mean for 1978, not charging Pedro

Alec

6:26

I feel like Paul Goldschmidt is already building up a Hall Of fame carrer. Is it still too early?

Tyler

6:28

Oswalt had 4, 6 fwar seasons to just 1 for Cone that is why I said he had a better peak.

Jay

6:28

Of all players not currently in the Hall, who is the *worst* one that you think should be inducted? In other words, is there a player who embodies your idea of the lower threshold for HOF status?

YKnotDisco?!

6:28

Blue Jays or Reds: who'd be more likely to win their division?

Brian R

6:29

Will The orioles make any moves this offseason? if so what?

Alec

6:30

Will Mussina end up having enough vote to be elected next week?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:30

Pretty sure Sheffield got hurt more by his defensive value + positional adjustment than Edgar.

SSSCHARMCITY

6:30

I'm with you on Mussina for HOF. As an Oriole he had over 50 no decisions where he left the game with a lead the BP couldn't hold. With just an average BP he'd be a 300 Game winner and already in.

Brian R

6:31

Where do you see Adam Jones going

Dan

6:32

Its pretty clear that the reason for the reduction in free agent expenditures by teams is the relatively low cost of young players. Is there a way to increase the money young players get without hurting small market teams?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:32

Has the HOF waived the 10 year requirement for any players (such as in the case of death)?

Pat's Bat

6:33

Why not release the Fangraphs votes a few days earlier so we can have two separate things to argue about in the comments? January is a long month for baseball fans.

Joe

6:33

Tell your buddy Dave to sign Machado and become a dynasty at the same time, ok?

Dave

6:33

So Baines is in. Hello Dick Allen?

Pat

6:33

What do you think of Bill James new "HOF-V" stat. Similar to JAWS in that it combine 2 metrics- WAR & Win Shares.

andy

6:34

that's a high peak mother-in-law

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:35

How often do you in your regular life say stuff like "This paella belongs in the Hall of Fame"?

Josh Reddick

6:35

Do you think it's realistic the Astros could actually trade me this year?

Gerrit Cole

6:36

What would a contract extension look like for me?

Guest

6:36

I'm intrigued that you threw the Cubs as a non-spending team. Given the bad long-term contracts currently on the books (J-Hey, Chatwood, Yu), I'd be surprised if ownership would allow for Theo to give another 7-10 year contract right now.

6:36

If Harper or Machado end up reaching the HOF, will they likely get in as Nats/Orioles or will they end up producing more with their potential future teams?

Orioles

6:37

Do you think we will be able to replicate the Astros success in changing Pitchers? Is the magic the analytics or Strom?

STL Dave

6:37

Bargain hunting for Gio Gonzalez for the Cardinals?

Gene

6:37

Granderson has one the Marvin Miller award twice and the Clemente Award once. Near a career WAR of 50. Maybe just maybe reaches the 400 plateau. Is he one of those guys who might get in for being a good person off the field?

Alec

6:38

Will Machado actually end up with the White Sox?

Crawfishboxes

6:39

Do you think I will be a HoF'er?

Alec

6:39

Is the Hall Of fame case for Gill Hodges really overrated?

Oswalt

6:40

You mentioned you would vote for Johan Santana. Him and Oswalt had very similar careers, would you vote for Oswalt?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:40

One day, will appearing in "Homer at the Bat" constitute a basis for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Chris

6:40

Would any team consider trading for Murray if he decides to try to do both sports? What kind of trade value would he have?

MikeM

6:45

Ottavino to the Yanks on a 3 year deal. The stove is thinking about turning on...

Jays for life.

6:45

Is Russell Martin really a Hall Worthy catcher?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:45

Do you think Trout has a chance of eventually breaking Griffey's HoF vote %? If he keeps at this pace, I would think it's a possibility

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

6:45

Yankees sign Ottavino for 3 years/$25M. Thoughts on Ottavino vs. Britton vs. Robertson vs. the field?

Joel

6:46

Ottavino just got the Joe Kelly contract.....

Ottavino

6:46

(Yankees just signed him.)

Ottavino

6:47

Uh, that cut my other one off. I meant, I am sure this is not measurable, but I like when hometown kids play for their teams, and Ottavino is from BK (and I played against him in 8th grade). But do you think he can be good again?

Trey

6:48

What are the odds that LeMahieu and Lowrie both finish their contracts in New York? I could easily see (1) the Mets falling out of contention and flipping Lowrie at the deadline, (2) the Yankees extending Gregorius if he comes back healthy from TJ surgery, thus making LeMahieu superfluous, or (3) either team spending big on one of the free-agent infielders available next year (Rendon, Donaldson, Arenado), thereby reducing the need for infield depth.

Matt

6:49

So with the Yankees getting Ottovino for 3/$25, did the Mets err in not waiting out the market a little bit on Familia, who they gave 3/$30?

Corry

6:49

Do you see the Yankees winning the AL East

The Electrician

6:49

Doesn't expansion seem like an obvious answer to the cold free agent market? I know it's not like you can expand overnight (especially with affiliates) but with soaring profits et al, why is it not getting more play?

Jays for life.

6:50

Wanna break some news Adam Ottavino has signed with the Yankees. How does that help them?

rschutzpah

6:50

We are speaking of making the market go faster. One such way is adding 2 teams to the MLB. That creates 80 jobs for the 40-man. Do you think this happens anytime soon?

Matt

6:50

Isn't Pete Rose also a child molestor? Even if he atoned for his gambling sins I wouldn't want to take my kids to see him in the HOF.

Beasy Bee

6:51

It's not just the last few weeks that play into why people are talking about the imbalance in owner take/player salary, so I know it's hard to be completely encapsulate this, but what do you think is a fair split in revenue? Are the players even getting 50/50? Do you feel they deserve more (I do) or less (some surely do)?

6:51

Andy Pettitte...will he make it in the HOF by any of the opportunities available at some point?

John

6:53

Do you think that the HOF ballots would be drastically change if the voting was expanded beyond just the writers to include current HOFers. I personally don't care for the committees and would get rid of them and just have one way in. As a follow-up, what other group would make the most sense to include as voters?

David

6:53

Mets should go with McNeill in the OF flanking Nimmo and Conforto vs all righties, no?

Hall of Dad's

6:53

Why would you tell some random guy when your kid is at day care? Why is he asking that? Not a hall of fame answer to that question, Mr. Jaffe.

MikeM

6:54

The Yankees bullpen now consists of Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Betances, and Green. Thats a hell of a pen.

Phan

6:55

Team Captain America or Team Iron Man?

The Electrician

6:55

If a Japanese team came through and offered more money to Harper or Machado do you think they would go?

Pat

6:57

Remember when the owners were the buffoons (anyone who has read "Lord Of The Realms" can attest) & the MLBPA seemed to always have it over them? Guess this goes to show that everything is cyclical.

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