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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/17/19

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Andujar

1:34

Can he improve his defense? Jeter did (before he then got old) once he actually focused on it. (also, Kinsler has a ring now, replacing Pedroia and playing poorly for BOS)

Jay Jaffe

1:37

Whoops, good point on Kinsler's ring (but Pedroia also gets one and had only slightly less impact).

Yes, I do think Andujar can improve, but the question is what kind of odds to give that. The quality of his arm isn't in question (it's a 70) but he needs to get better with his range and footwork. There's a lot of work to be done.

Donnie Baseball

1:37

Is longevity the only reason Don Mattingly isn't in the hall of fame? He was an offensive force for the yankees for a 4-5 year stretch. UNDERRATED.

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Mattingly only had four seasons worth 5.0 WAR, so even his peak is pretty short/low relative to the average HOF 1B (35.7 vs. 42.7). I think he needed to maintain that 1984-1989 stretch of excellence for longer or crater less in order to get more support.

Jeff

1:39

Do you believe catchers are underrated by WAR of any kind? If so are there guys who have more serious HOF cases than maybe talked about? I can’t come up with a specific name

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I think that if we had a framing-inclusive WAR you'd see seasonal totals much closer to those at other positions, with pitchers and position players both giving up a bit of value relative to them (the .294 winning percentage definition of WAR relies on the distribution of I think 1,000 WAR around the league). I've written about this a few times but I think such a methodology strengthens Yadier Molina's case (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-cooperstown/) and brings McCann and Martin into the edges of the picture, though both of those guys appear to be done as productive full-time regulars and like salmon swimming upstream on the final legs of their journeys have returned to their original teams.

Brock

1:44

Your a WAR expert, is having position flexibility (like Zobrist and Holt) factor into a player's WAR?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

positional flexibility is really tough to capture directly in WAR. I think a lot of what it comes down to is less playing time given to replacement-level teammates. If Zobrist is your secondary 2B and your secondary RF in the kind of two-position platoon he was in as a Ray, chances are there are fewer PA and chances going to true replacement-level players.

1:47

And that's not something that's really going to boost a guy's WAR noticeably, though it does help from a team-building standpoint

Jeff

1:47

Speaking of frozen-ass markets, when is the revolution? I’d like to sign up

Jay Jaffe

1:48

This CBA runs through the 2021 season, so any changes that take place within the industry are likely to be relatively minimal until then.

Matt

1:48

Who would be better in the Mets outfield, Jeff McNeil or Bryce Harper?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Harper. Not even close.

Pat's Bat

1:48

Does Pete Rose have to wait until he's dead or will he never get in?

Jay Jaffe

1:49

Given his lack of penitence, I can't see a strong argument to reverse his lifetime ban even postmortem. Never is a long time but I doubt he gets in within my lifetime.

Jeff

1:50

Who is the best not quite HOF worthy switch hitter of all time? Bernie Williams?

Jay Jaffe

1:53

Here are the bWAR rankings for switch-hitters. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/y4fMn Bernie's defense was bad enough (-139 runs via B-Ref) to suppress his WAR. I think the top non-HOF guy is Reggie Smith (64.6 WAR) - ahead of him are Mantle, Chipper, George Davis, Roger Connor, Rose, Ozzie, Frisch, Beltran, Raines, Murray, Alomar — all solid-or-better HOF choices. Ted Simmons (50.3) is 17th but HOF-worthy because of the way catcher WAR is suppressed.

DJ Tanner

1:53

How on earth did the players not see this coming? Teams will pay for their past production? That is so loony! It seems so illogical that players will get 10 year contracts and crush a teams payroll when they are bad but they don't make big money when they are at their peak. Too bad CBA isn't until 2021, this needs to get fixed ASAP.

Jay Jaffe

1:54

Gotta blame the union leadership, and the buck has to start with Tony Clark.

Cito's Mustache

1:54

Do you have any tips for someone who's going to visit Cooperstown for the first time this year? How much time should one devote to the museum? Would an afternoon suffice or is there enough to see that I should spend a second day there. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

1:55

You really need a LONG day to do it in one day. I'd recommend two, because there's a lot to take in and Cooperstown is totally worth sticking around to absorb and appreciate.

1:56

if you can go in the winter, you can have the place pretty much to yourself. In doing my final research for the book, i went during the first week of February and had long stretches where I was the only one in the plaque gallery, which was incredibly awesome.

What I haven't been able to do is find time to get to Ommegang Brewery, which you should figure out how to incorporate into your trip.

Nate

1:56

What would the Hall of Fame do if Roger Clemens got voted in by 1-2 votes and Barry Bonds missed by 1-2 votes in their final BBWAA election cycle?

Jay Jaffe

1:57

I'm sure there would be some joy behind the scenes because Bonds isn't well-liked. He'd become a committee candidate and get in that way eventually, but I don't think we can take that for granted.

Mandy is 92% Fresh

1:58

Have any BBWAA members got in your face to express extreme displeasure with your work (and I mean going beyond simple disagreements over particular players or critiques of your system)?

Jay Jaffe

1:59

Directly, no. Quite the opposite, in fact. I've heard positive things from people I never thought I would reach given our stances 10-15 years ago. There's only two BBWAA members that I can think of who bitch about my HOF work publicly. I'll let you figure them out.

Connecting…

Alec

5:49

Have people overacted to Harold Baines get elected to the Hall? Because I think the VC made up that with putting in Lee Smith

The Decadent Moose

6:02

Better hitter among last season's rookies: Acuña or Soto. And I mean moving forward. Thanks!

The Old Buccaneer

5:50

What do you think the real amount Chicago’s offering to Machado is?

Mr. PiPoto

5:51

Who is my best trading partner for Encarnacion and what could I expect to get in return?

Slapshot

5:52

ESPN put up a small headline on their main page today asking if Harper and/or Machado will sign by Super Bowl Sunday. Do you think it happens by then, or do you think it might stretch into the opening of training camp?

Captain ACAB

5:53

What percent of your success do you attribute to coming along at the right time vs hard work and talent (which you have in spades by the way)?

Tyler

5:54

Most of Eckersley's value comes as a starter why do you list him as a reliever?

Ben

5:54

Jason Heyward is what he is but Machado and Harper are essentially hoping for double what he got. I feel like owners are right to be a little leery of handing out 300 or 350 or more. Not saying those guys aren't "worth it". But they should try to get those guys for as little as they can, right? Business is business.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

5:56

You

Captain ACAB

5:57

How does Dusty Baker stack up as a manager for HOF consideration?

Alec

5:57

Is Chase Utley really a Hall Of Famer?

Brian

5:58

What would be a far return for the Giants in a Will Smith trade?

Klenny

5:58

would a non-guaranteed run at Trout in 2021 really prevent the phillies from signing both harper and machado if theres an opportunity to do so?

Captain ACAB

5:59

David Come is probably sweating bullets that he'll get me too-ed any day now. Doubt he'd ever get into the Hall in this day and age.

Ben

6:00

The Heyward contract has been widely panned due to his offensive output. I get that. But the Cubs have a ring and had a chance at two more (having made the tournament). It's not like it's sunk the franchise. How do you see it?

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

6:00

Years ago, I would have been appalled by the Harold Baines induction, but I have come around to the "big hall" side. I now think of the HoF as a museum for fans, and why not have as many fan favorites in there as is reasonable.

Alec

6:01

What do you think Next Year’s Modern Baseball Committee Ballot will be like? Who are the newcomers and who is leftoff and who gets in?

Ben

6:02

If the Cubs signed Harper, it would virtually guarantee that they'll lose Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez to free agency after 2021. Since they're not going to sign him, they may be able to extend/re-sign two of the three. Which two would you choose to keep?

The Critics' Critic

6:02

Harrison Bader... is it reasonable to expect some offensive regression this year? Big swing-and-miss, extreme righty/lefty splits, below-average EV. Thanks again for doing these!

stever20

6:03

if the tracker that is so great ever got so many ballots that we'd know a guy is inducted before the announcement, do you think the HOF would do something about that?

Phil

6:05

Will Chris Sale need to win a Cy Young to make it into the Hall if he continues to pitch they way that he has?

Trent

6:06

We talk a lot about the character clause negatively impacting people like Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, etc. Who are some current or near-term future HOF candidates who might *benefit* from the clause?

Jon Weisman

6:08

What are the best examples -- if any -- of players who were basically sure Hall of Famers mid-career but stayed around too long and lowered their career averages enough to knock them out of Cooperstown?

Mrs jaffe

6:08

Do you have a bigger chance for the hof cause you write about it

Trey

6:09

Tim Lincecum and Denny McClain: Is it amazing how similar their careers turned out to be?

Dan

6:11

Why not change the name to the National Baseball Museum at Cooperstown, giving entry to every player who's been on a MLB roster, then have special rotating exhibits for outstanding players on a season-by-season basis?

Naveed shah

6:12

I would like to know what does it means that when pitch movement tell nagative or positive l

Egg

6:12

Are you voting for Giant Hat in 2020?

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

6:14

Since you can get into the Hall as only a

Casual fan

6:15

How many more years does Andrelton Simmons need to play at his current level to make a case for the HOF? How many more seasons does he need to play in total? How many does he need to play in an Angels cap to wear one in the hall? His best seasons so far have been with the Halos and he is signed through 2020

Lunch Break

6:15

How seriously should we consider the Phillies a suitor for Kimbrel? Outside of them seems like Boston is likely to just sit back and wait like they did last season for JD.

Alec

6:15

I feel like Robin Ventura is a solid Today’s Game candiate.

Alec

6:15

How do you think of that?

Heathcliff Slocumb

6:16

Any particular reason Ottavino looks like one of the last dominoes to fall in the RP market?

YKnotDisco?!

6:18

Do you have any favorite HoF "fun facts" or statistics?

Trey

6:19

If you were putting together a list of the ten most *influential* players in the game's history, who besides the obvious candidates (Ruth, Robinson, etc.) would be on it? Curt Flood? Tommy John? Others?

Jeff

6:20

Chuck Finley or Andy Pettitte?

Alec

6:20

I always always thought another underrated Veteran Committee candidate was Bobby Shantz. Probably one of the best relievers of his time. What do you think of that?

Nelson

6:21

It seemed questionable at the time, but now the Stanton trade to the Yankees seems downright horrible. If they didnt have him, they'd have Harper and Machado by now

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:21

Who is the next HOF candidate to pull a Vizquel where he initially might not be viewed as a serious candidate but then voting reveals stronger support (especially among the non-analytics voters)?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:22

What would the Angles have to do to keep Trout even somewhat interested in staying?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:23

Are the moves the phillies have made good enough to save their atrocious defense?

audrey horne's dream dance

6:23

As a Red Sox fan, no to the gerbil getting into the HoF

Pat's Bat

6:24

Why don't teams give veterans token at bats to reset their HoF clocks? I bet Bonds would still be an above average hitter.

JKD

6:24

What's an effective way for fans to register our displeasure with owners' skinflint ways?

Casual fan

6:24

Do you see players signing early extensions, after their first year, to buy out TC and arb to give them more money initially? AAV might be a little more in favor of teams overall, but players will get more money up front

audrey horne's dream dance

6:25

I mean for 1978, not charging Pedro

Alec

6:26

I feel like Paul Goldschmidt is already building up a Hall Of fame carrer. Is it still too early?

Tyler

6:28

Oswalt had 4, 6 fwar seasons to just 1 for Cone that is why I said he had a better peak.

Jay

6:28

Of all players not currently in the Hall, who is the *worst* one that you think should be inducted? In other words, is there a player who embodies your idea of the lower threshold for HOF status?

YKnotDisco?!

6:28

Blue Jays or Reds: who'd be more likely to win their division?

Brian R

6:29

Will The orioles make any moves this offseason? if so what?

Alec

6:30

Will Mussina end up having enough vote to be elected next week?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:30

Pretty sure Sheffield got hurt more by his defensive value + positional adjustment than Edgar.

SSSCHARMCITY

6:30

I'm with you on Mussina for HOF. As an Oriole he had over 50 no decisions where he left the game with a lead the BP couldn't hold. With just an average BP he'd be a 300 Game winner and already in.

Brian R

6:31

Where do you see Adam Jones going

Dan

6:32

Its pretty clear that the reason for the reduction in free agent expenditures by teams is the relatively low cost of young players. Is there a way to increase the money young players get without hurting small market teams?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:32

Has the HOF waived the 10 year requirement for any players (such as in the case of death)?

Pat's Bat

6:33

Why not release the Fangraphs votes a few days earlier so we can have two separate things to argue about in the comments? January is a long month for baseball fans.

Joe

6:33

Tell your buddy Dave to sign Machado and become a dynasty at the same time, ok?

Dave

6:33

So Baines is in. Hello Dick Allen?

Pat

6:33

What do you think of Bill James new "HOF-V" stat. Similar to JAWS in that it combine 2 metrics- WAR & Win Shares.

andy

6:34

that's a high peak mother-in-law

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:35

How often do you in your regular life say stuff like "This paella belongs in the Hall of Fame"?

Josh Reddick

6:35

Do you think it's realistic the Astros could actually trade me this year?

Gerrit Cole

6:36

What would a contract extension look like for me?

Guest

6:36

I'm intrigued that you threw the Cubs as a non-spending team. Given the bad long-term contracts currently on the books (J-Hey, Chatwood, Yu), I'd be surprised if ownership would allow for Theo to give another 7-10 year contract right now.

6:36

If Harper or Machado end up reaching the HOF, will they likely get in as Nats/Orioles or will they end up producing more with their potential future teams?

Orioles

6:37

Do you think we will be able to replicate the Astros success in changing Pitchers? Is the magic the analytics or Strom?

STL Dave

6:37

Bargain hunting for Gio Gonzalez for the Cardinals?

Gene

6:37

Granderson has one the Marvin Miller award twice and the Clemente Award once. Near a career WAR of 50. Maybe just maybe reaches the 400 plateau. Is he one of those guys who might get in for being a good person off the field?

Alec

6:38

Will Machado actually end up with the White Sox?

Crawfishboxes

6:39

Do you think I will be a HoF'er?

Alec

6:39

Is the Hall Of fame case for Gill Hodges really overrated?

Oswalt

6:40

You mentioned you would vote for Johan Santana. Him and Oswalt had very similar careers, would you vote for Oswalt?

Mandy is 92% Fresh

6:40

One day, will appearing in "Homer at the Bat" constitute a basis for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Chris

6:40

Would any team consider trading for Murray if he decides to try to do both sports? What kind of trade value would he have?

MikeM

6:45

Ottavino to the Yanks on a 3 year deal. The stove is thinking about turning on...

Jays for life.

6:45

Is Russell Martin really a Hall Worthy catcher?

Fartrell Cluggins

6:45

Do you think Trout has a chance of eventually breaking Griffey's HoF vote %? If he keeps at this pace, I would think it's a possibility

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

6:45

Yankees sign Ottavino for 3 years/$25M. Thoughts on Ottavino vs. Britton vs. Robertson vs. the field?

Joel

6:46

Ottavino just got the Joe Kelly contract.....

Ottavino

6:46

(Yankees just signed him.)

Ottavino

6:47

Uh, that cut my other one off. I meant, I am sure this is not measurable, but I like when hometown kids play for their teams, and Ottavino is from BK (and I played against him in 8th grade). But do you think he can be good again?

Trey

6:48

What are the odds that LeMahieu and Lowrie both finish their contracts in New York? I could easily see (1) the Mets falling out of contention and flipping Lowrie at the deadline, (2) the Yankees extending Gregorius if he comes back healthy from TJ surgery, thus making LeMahieu superfluous, or (3) either team spending big on one of the free-agent infielders available next year (Rendon, Donaldson, Arenado), thereby reducing the need for infield depth.

Matt

6:49

So with the Yankees getting Ottovino for 3/$25, did the Mets err in not waiting out the market a little bit on Familia, who they gave 3/$30?

Corry

6:49

Do you see the Yankees winning the AL East

The Electrician

6:49

Doesn't expansion seem like an obvious answer to the cold free agent market? I know it's not like you can expand overnight (especially with affiliates) but with soaring profits et al, why is it not getting more play?

Jays for life.

6:50

Wanna break some news Adam Ottavino has signed with the Yankees. How does that help them?

rschutzpah

6:50

We are speaking of making the market go faster. One such way is adding 2 teams to the MLB. That creates 80 jobs for the 40-man. Do you think this happens anytime soon?

Matt

6:50

Isn't Pete Rose also a child molestor? Even if he atoned for his gambling sins I wouldn't want to take my kids to see him in the HOF.

Beasy Bee

6:51

It's not just the last few weeks that play into why people are talking about the imbalance in owner take/player salary, so I know it's hard to be completely encapsulate this, but what do you think is a fair split in revenue? Are the players even getting 50/50? Do you feel they deserve more (I do) or less (some surely do)?

6:51

Andy Pettitte...will he make it in the HOF by any of the opportunities available at some point?

John

6:53

Do you think that the HOF ballots would be drastically change if the voting was expanded beyond just the writers to include current HOFers. I personally don't care for the committees and would get rid of them and just have one way in. As a follow-up, what other group would make the most sense to include as voters?

David

6:53

Mets should go with McNeill in the OF flanking Nimmo and Conforto vs all righties, no?

Hall of Dad's

6:53

Why would you tell some random guy when your kid is at day care? Why is he asking that? Not a hall of fame answer to that question, Mr. Jaffe.

MikeM

6:54

The Yankees bullpen now consists of Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Betances, and Green. Thats a hell of a pen.

Phan

6:55

Team Captain America or Team Iron Man?

The Electrician

6:55

If a Japanese team came through and offered more money to Harper or Machado do you think they would go?

Pat

6:57

Remember when the owners were the buffoons (anyone who has read "Lord Of The Realms" can attest) & the MLBPA seemed to always have it over them? Guess this goes to show that everything is cyclical.

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