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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/21/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat!
2:01
Today I have a FanGraphs Audio podcast spot of a conversation I had with ESPN's Buster Olney (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-buster-olney-and-jay-j...) in which we discussed his recent piece about the Hall of Fame Tracker (https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/32999293/what-lear...) and how expanded coverage of the election cycle has changed the Hall of Fame process. Plus stuff about the character clause, the lockout, and more...
2:03
Earlier this week I had profiles of Tim Lincecum (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-tim-...) and Jonathan Papelbon (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-...), the final two profiles of this year's 30 candidates.
Justin B.
2:03
Jay, a week or two ago I read a Verducci article in which he noted that Joe West could be part of the Era Committee ballot next year, something I had not considered. Now, since West does have the record for most games umpired, I guess I don't want to say he shouldn't ever make it, but I'm kind of bummed thinking about that era committee now. I was hoping for some players to get in, like Lofton or McGriff (sorry! Childhood favorite). I'm glad for Bochy to make it, but now with Joe West maybe in the picture as well... how do you sort out that picture? Do you think Bochy and West getting in would have to come at the expense of any players realistically having a shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
The big problem with next year's Today's Game ballot is is that Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa will all be eligible, which could very well take up a significant chunk of real estate and oxygen. You've got guys who fell off the writers' ballot (McGriff, Lofton), and managers (holdover Lou Piniella, plus Bochy and possibly Jim Leyland), and while there still could be other candidates on there, it might be hard to justify putting Joe West at the head of the line.
2:08
and yes, since the Era Committee vote is basically a math problem — there are only 64 ballot slots to go around (16 x 4) and12 votes needed to gain entry, the more good candidates there are on the ballot the tougher it is to get a consensus. A repeat of the recent Golden Days result, with four candidates getting elected and a fifth missing by one vote, is extremely unlikely, and even getting three candidates elected would be as well.
Rachel
2:08
Who would you draft first of these two - deGrom or C Burnes? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
the healthy guy, Burnes.
Tony
2:08
I keep thinking about how to evaluate starting pitchers for the Hall moving forward as modern usage evolves and workloads lessen. Does it make sense to apply those new standards retroactively, too, when workloads looked different? To be, someone like Bret Saberhagen is probably just on the wrong side of the line for 1980s-90s pitchers, but would have a very strong case if he hit the ballot in 2030.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Stay tuned, I have an S-JAWS piece planned for after the election circus leaves town
Nate
2:09
Do you think that working in the YES booth will help Beltran regain good favor with the HOF electorate? Does he get in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
It's not a done deal (https://nypost.com/2022/01/20/yankees-could-rescue-carlos-beltran-from...) but it couldn't hurt. He's been out of the public eye since resigning from his job last year, and he needs a means to regain attention and help put his career into perspective.
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:11
Once the steroids issue plays itself out, what will be the most controversial aspect of HOF voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Ask me in 2032, when Alex Rodriguez is no longer on the ballot.
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:11
Has there ever been a serious effort to eliminate the character clause?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Not that I know of. The funny thing is that nobody paid much attention to it until McGwire hit the ballot in 2007, and then suddenly it began being used as a means to exclude candidates. Wrote several pages on the history of the clause in The Cooperstown Casebook
Joe
2:12
Do you buy any possible justification for someone who won’t vote for Bonds but voted for Ortiz first ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
That's exactly the kind of logical gerrymandering that I predicted in the wake of last year's outcome https://www.sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Barry-Bonds-remains-far-sho...
Von Hayes
2:14
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I'm not sure why there's a picture of Thin Lizzy's Phil Lynott and Mayor McCheese in my chat queue, but I can't keep it to myself
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:14
What is the latest date the lockout could settle and not effect the regular season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
probably around February 1
jazzrunner12
2:15
Why isn't there more support for catchers like Bill Freehan and Thurman Munson.  Do you think Posey's case will awaken veteran committee members?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Buster's going to be on the BBWAA ballot first, and I'll bet he's elected via that route, possibly even on the first ballot. As for Freehan and Munson, they suffer from the perception that they had short careers without voters appreciating how much they squeezed into those careers. you can't measure a catcher's numbers relative to a 20-year outfielder
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:17
Ichiro probably will not be a unanimous HOF selection, but do you think there will be a *vocal* minority against his candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I'm on record in several places as saying that I think Ichiro will be unanimous. Seriously, who the hell is going to come out and vote against him? It's not even that you've got somebody imagining himself basking in the glow of the trolls for being That Fucking Guy.
Ben
2:19
Do you think 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 300 wins, 3,000 strikeouts, and 500 saves should be basically automatic Hall of Fame credentials? Do the "worst" players in those clubs (probably Brock, Ortiz, Welch, Sabathia, & Hoffman) belong no matter what their JAWS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
I think it's mostly pretty tough to NOT compile a HOF-worthy career while reaching those milestones. They were more or less automatic until the PED candidates arrived, though occasionally a 300-win guy like Wynn, Perry, or Niekro had to wait out the traffic, and some voters were for some reason pissy about the low batting averages of Mathews and Killebrew, they all did get in except for the ones with PED allegations.  

Yes, Brock's WAR and JAWS are low but the guy was a major force in 3 postseasons and retired while holding the single-season and career stolen base records. I don't have much objection to any of the guys you list being in despite their JAWS; the ones I object to have far less going for them.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:23
From an analytical perspective, should we care about counting stats? Can't the same information be conveyed more  descriptively by rate stats and some numerical multiplier (ABs, IP, G, etc...)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
*you* don't have to care, but for a broad segment of the audience, they have a meaning that connects to the long history of baseball. They're a common reference point and they're pretty easy to understand at an entry level. If you want to introduce somebody to WAR and player evaluation, you're probably not going to *start* with WAR, you're going to start with the counting stats and then use WAR to help explain why some of those counting stats mean more than others.
Nate
2:26
I assume that you have written on Bernie Williams. Where can I find it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I've got a capsule on him in The Cooperstown Casebook. Wrote about him as a candidate here, and while the numbers have changed a bit (his WAR is a bit higher now) the conclusion is the same https://www.si.com/mlb/2012/12/15/jaws-and-the-2013-hall-of-fame-ballo...
Guest
2:28
did something happen with all the new writers FG brought on? Or is it just a slower part of the offseason? Seems like there was a big announcement a while back, but the most recent dozen articles are job postings, podcasts, zips, and JAWS (which are great!) all from the more established writers. Just wondering.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
During a pandemic and a lockout, there's less to cover, but while I know we've lost some contributors due to attrition and other jobs, I only know the barest specifics on a couple of them.
ChicagoDan
2:31
Good afternoon Jay. I do enjoy your work. I have a question concerning centerfielders and the HOF. From your profiles it seems like you lean yes on Kenny Lofton and Andruw Jones and no on Johnny Damon. How do you feel about Jim Edmonds? Also do you think Lofton and Edmonds have a shot at getting elected via a committee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'm a yes on Edmonds but it's a softer yes than on Lofton or Jones. Visually, he was one of the most spectacular fielders I ever saw; the metrics don't quite match that perception but we're not talking about a Vizquel; he's 15th in JAWS among center fielders.
2:35
Given that we've seen just one one-and-done candidate elected (Simmons) and just two reach an Era Committee ballot (Whitaker being the other), I think that there are glimmers of hope for both but that they're not exactly going to take the express lane to Cooperstown once eligible for the committee; managers, execs, and higher-polling players are always going to take up most of the spots on the ballot
David Ortiz
2:35
Jay- with 44-45% of the votes in, I'm polling at 84% and can withstand a 16.3% drop in the remaining ballots to hit 75%.  What is the likelihood that I'm getting inducted this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
2:38
Basically, first-time candidates are harder to predict, there's a PED factor involved, and right now Boston writers, who overwhelmingly favor Ortiz, are over-represented among the returns.
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