You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/23/24
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Nervous Flyball Pitcher
2:43
What are you nervous about?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
I'm nervous mainly for the candidates, whom I feel genuine empathy for on a day like today, with its heightened emotions. I'm also just typically nervous when it comes to writing on deadline — not debilitatingly so, but just a bit jittery — particularly given that this is something that's going to be as widely read as anything I do this year. I always try to live up to my own high standards, and it's just a little more challenging when the clock is ticking.
BenB
2:48
How much is the uncertainty around tv contracts impacting the remaining free agents ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Probably a bit more than most of us expected at the outset of the cycle.
Cee Zebra
2:48
Semi-serious proposal: The next time the hall has a shutout, they rip the band-aid off and induct all the steroid cases. Inner circle guys like Bonds/Clemens/A-Rod down through fringier candidates like McGwire/Sosa/ManRam. The hall gets a more accurate accounting of the best players from the 90s/00s, and era committees won’t have to relitigate the whole mess every couple years.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
If only!
Kevin
2:49
Sheffield: better hitter than Edgar and Ortiz.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Not quite. Going by OPS+ it's Edgar 147, Papi 141, Shef 140, where by wRC+ you can swap the last two — very, very close, and certainly part of the same discussion.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:50
I don't know if I'm just an easy mark, but Sheff's explanation of the PED stuff on Foul Territory swayed me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
He's offered a coherent explanation time and again. But he's got a long track record of saying things that aren't always quite as coherent, and that doesn't help him here.
Alex
2:51
This past decade the HOF discussion was about steroids and what to do (not let them in apparently).  The next decade storyline seems it will be how the game has changed dramatically and starting pitchers don't pitch nearly as much leaving career counting stats to look lacking compared to pitchers from the past 50 years.  What do you think the hall in general does with this new dilemma, do they start admitting these players or not?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I don't think the Hall itself will do anything. It's up to the voters and the committees making the ballots, but the limitations on the number of candidates and the configuration of the committees makes it very, very hard for a wholesale reevaluatoin
Vet Comm
2:53
Who on this ballot seems prime fodder for the Veteran’s Committee to induct at a later date, a la McGriff & Trammell? Jeff Kent seemed like a good choice from last year, and as mentioned above, Sheff might struggle. I’m thinking guys like Rollins and Buehrle fit that profile pretty well, though as always, who really knows anything.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
Maybe Rollins, Wright, Buehrle and Pettitte — but all of those guys are going to have trouble landing on ballots unless they increase their shares; as we've seen it's not the guys getting very little support that go to the front of the line.
Nate
2:56
Did you have any thoughts on the Hader deal in Houston? I get that it's a lot, and 4-5 years is a risk for any RP. But I can't help but think it's almost less than I expected...I was half expecting 6 years and 100+ at first
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Judged by present-day value it's surpassed the Díaz deal, which has some deferred money, as the largest ever for a reliever. I don't see how he could have done much better than that, and even that's a bit of a surprise given that Hader isn't far removed from a sub-replacement level season. It's a risk but I like his chances of maintenance better in Houston.
King's Court Jester
2:59
What are Felix Hernandez's odds of sticking around on the ballot past year one? Is he a good bet to hit five percent or is he likely to go one and done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Particularly in a year where CC Sabathia will be on the ballot and starting pitching will be discussed in greater detail, I think he'll stick around. He's got a Cy Young and a higher peak than Pettitte and Buehrle, who have persisted, so I think that bodes well at least for avoiding one-and-done status
Bob
3:00
Would you ever leave a sure thibg candidate off your full ballot of 10 players to make space for an 11th player who you think is Hall worthy but is closer to elimination than 75 percent?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
If I was in a situation where I felt the need to support a low-% guy in order to preserve his eligibility, I'd withhold from somebody in the middle of the pack percentage- and timing-wise. Like if I felt much more strongly about Wright than I do on this year's ballot, I'd consider leaving a Jones or an Abreu off as a temporary remedy.
Devil Ray Jay Johnson
3:03
It it inevitable that once MLB expands to 32 teams, it reorganizes the leagues by geography?  Or will the specific tradition of the separate leagues win out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
i think that will be a big fight but not sure which direction it goes.
AJ
3:03
Do you think that Kimbrel and Jansen have helped their HOF cases in the last couple of years? Their performance has dragged down their ERA+'s significantly but theyre still above average relievers and their counting stats, especially saves, keep creeping up. Another way of asking it: Is Wagner looking better or worse by comparison?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Even though both Jansen and Kimbrel now have higher strikeout rates at the 800-inning mark than Wagner (who still owns the record at 900 inning cutoff, but has just 903 IP), I think the two active guys' ongoing declines underscore how hard it was to do what Wagner did — don't forget, he retired coming off a 1.43 ERA season and had a 2.07 ERA from 35 onward.

That said, Jansen and Kimbrel need volume as much as they need rate stat excellence, and so long as they can maintain reasonable productivity, they're advancing their causes. Both reached 400 saves last year in All-Star seasons, and that's not nothing.
Devil Ray Jay Johnson
3:08
Which player appearing on the ballot for the first time had the biggest movement in your mind from "no way" when you first heard the name toward "yes" after you researched him more closely?  (Looking for the biggest movement from your first to last impression, not necessarily that you ultimately voted for him)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Coming into this year I wasn't prepared to think about Wright for a ballot spot, but ultimately he was in consideration for that 10th spot.
AJ
3:09
Do you believe that 3 Cy Youngs should practically automatically guaruntee induction? If DeGrom, Snell, or even Kluber have one more Cy winning season in them are they in? I would guess yes, but that feels unfair to Santana who we all agree shouldve won 3 in a row
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
I think it's still gonna take more volume to get to Cooperstown than any of those active pitchers can muster, and I don't see deGrom pitching enough to compete for a Cy Young again, whereas Snell seems as though somebody ought to be able to help him refine and turn a corner. "I know i can change him!"
Devil Ray Jay Johnson
3:11
Speaking of manager trades, good ol' Randy Winn should get some consideration for the Hall of Surprisingly Pretty Good, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
99 OPS+, 1 All-Star appearance, 27.5 WAR. A nice, solid career.
AJ
3:12
If Greinke gets 3000Ks, do you think he gets in first ballot? Does he get in first ballot anyways or will who retires first out of the big 4 have an impact on his HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Traffic could be a factor but with his portfolio he's probably first ballot regardless, particularly given the way he's become a media favorite.
S
3:14
I know this is not baseball related, but there is a lot of anti-trans sentiment in the world right now. Can you verify that you support trans rights, including the inclusion of kids in youth sports?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Hell yes, I support trans rights! I'm not sure my unlikely career as a baseball writer would have gotten off the ground without the mentorship and friendship of Baseball Prospectus' Christina Kahrl, an incredible trailblazer within our industry.
Da Bear
3:17
That sounds like a book title: "A Little More Challenging When the Clock is Ticking: The Case for 2020s Pitchers in the Hall"
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
haha! duly noted.
Scott
3:18
Can you give me one reason Ichiro shouldn’t be unanimous next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
the only reason he might not be is because some of the same guys who made asses of themselves this year could do so next year.
Randy
3:18
Different shapes of production/career arcs, but Utleys candidacy has me wondering if Willie Randolph could get some play eventually on a Vet Committee
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Again, it's very, very, very tough even to land on an Era Committee ballot if you went one-and-done. Bobby Grich (8th in JAWS) has never been on one, and Lou Whitaker (13th) has only been on one, so Randolph (16th in JAWS, with no Gold Gloves and a lower peak than either) has an uphill battle, to say the least.

I was very pleased to see Susan Slusser, who's a member of the Historical Overview Committee that builds the Era Committee ballots, voice her support for both in this year's ballot reveal while comparing Utley to them. https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/giants/article/baseball-hall-fame-b...
Connecting…