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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Good afternoon, and welcome to my first chat since the end of the Hall of Fame cycle. I'm running a few minutes behind, but hang tight and I'll be along to tackle some questions shortly.
In the meantime, feel free to poke your nose into my five-year outlook for the BBWAA ballot, which just went live a short time ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-battles-looming-the-next-five-years-of...
12:10
OK back
Dave
12:11
Any thoughts on yesterday's news?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Assuming you're talking about the death of Kobe Bryant, obviously, it's tragic and shocking not just that he died but that his daughter was among the other eight who died too. I think my view of Bryant lagged far behind that of the general public because I stopped following the NBA closely when the Stockton/Malone Jazz dismantled (I grew up in Salt Lake City), and that was around the time of his sexual assault trial; to me, he was just a young, irresponsible punk who had game. I've never been comfortable with how the legal stuff played out, and I don't think it should be kept under erasure, but I guess he grew into quite the beloved athlete. I mostly missed that.
Fiers Mustache
12:14
Jeter not being a unanimous vote is a travesty. Who (if anyone) will be the next unanimously voted HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I wouldn't call it a travesty; it was a minor disappointment given how close he came but everybody should just move on, because it really doesn't matter a whit in the grand scheme. As noted in the above piece, I think Ichiro may have a shot, and I thought Beltre might, but a Tracker teamer pointed me to a voter who is a vocal critic of the latter.
Dave
12:16
Todd Helton has to be a big winner coming out of this election, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I think so, in that Larry Walker's election shows that voters can wrap their heads around a hitter who racked up big numbers in Coors Field. He's far from just a one-dimensional candidate, too — excellent fielder. And of course he benefits by the relative dearth of strong candidates coming down the pike, but 29.2% of the vote means that he still has a long way to go.
Nelson
12:17
Are there any other committees convening or coaches eligible, or any other possibilities that Shilling wont be going in to the Hall alone next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
The Early Baseball (1871-1949) and Golden Days Era Committees will both vote in December. Dick Allen, Minnie Miñoso, Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva figure to be the top candidates for the latter, and I'd hope at least one gets in - I'm partial to both Allen and Minnie.
Desperate Times
12:19
What's for lunch?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Probably falafel. Getting it on the way to my eye appointment, after this chat.
When progressive lenses go, man, they go.
Dave
12:20
Have you seen any of the best pic nominees? I saw Parasite over the weekend, amazing flick
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
As seeing a movie in a theater for the most part requires hiring a babysitter unless I go alone (which I sometimes do), the only ones I've seen are Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (liked it, didn't love it, but my appreciation deepened while watching it a second time, on an airplane) and the Irishman (liked-didn't-love, too). Parasite is up next because it's coming to iTunes.

I don't give a single damn about the Oscars, though. They're like the Grammys of movies, and fuck the Grammys.
HeyNowYoureanAllStar
12:22
C'mon Big Trades! Does FG root for trades, seeing as how it provides tons of analytic opprotunity?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
it's always exciting when a major transaction comes down, and there's a bit of tension when one is poised to happen but hasn't yet — but we're a bunch of people scattered across the country and usually we all have other things we're working on if there's no trade. I wouldn't say we "root for trades" per se. Or at least I don't.
HeyNowYoureanAllStar
12:24
Better Spring Training experience: AZ or FL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
It's a longer flight but I've come to prefer Arizona because the venues are closer together. You can see a handful of parks and teams without having to change hotels or drive several hours in one direction or another.
Travis
12:26
Do you foresee yourself reaching a point of voting for candidates such as Vizquel that don't meet the standards of your JAWS system? It seems as though he's trending towards election, and I'm curious as to what flexibility and leeway you'll apply towards candidates. (Your reasonings on your virtual ballots are always a great read/insight)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I'll probably never vote for Vizquel because he's hell and gone from the JAWS standard and I'm already sick of his candidacy and the desperate attempts to claim he's the equal of Ozzie Smith. I'll generally vote for anybody who's in the top 10 or 12, rankings-wise, even if he's a touch below the standard  among a top-heavy group (Ted Simmons, Carlos Beltran — setting aside the sign-stealing issue for the moment — and Kenny Lofton). Whitaker's close enough for my tastes (well above the bar on career WAR, and just a few runs below in JAWS). There are candidates who fall more than a handful of runs below the bar that I'm more willing to consider. Sheffield and Sabathia come to mind.
Houston, we have a problem
12:32
Do you think the prospect of Schilling going in alone and having the stage alone will cause any current no votes on Bonds or Clemens to becomes yes votes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
If so, i'd say you could probably count them on one hand.
v2micca
12:33
What is going on with the Kris Bryant grievance?  First we were supposed to have ruling before the winter meetings.  Then before the end of the year.  Now maybe in February?  If everyone already knows the arbiter is going to rule against Bryant, why is this being drug out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
It's a very complex case and I'd imagine that the arbitrator is doing his best to make sure s/he understands everything in play and can come up with a sound, logical ruling. Or maybe s/he isn't ready to come back form a long winter spent in some Mediterranean beach town and will write the opinion on airline napkins on the way home. One of the two, definitely.
asinwreck
12:35
What's Robinson Canoe's contract status, and will the squirrel make more media appearances as spring training approaches?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
As he was a birthday gift from me to Emma a few years ago, he's still under her control but probably approaching his first year of arbitration. I'll see about getting him some more airtime, though.
mike
12:37
Are you at all surprised the Twins paid that much for Donaldson, while being unable/willing to go BIG for starting pitching three years running now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Not really. $92 million is a fair bit of money, and more than, say, Ryu or Bumgarner or Keuchel got (I think they pursued all of them?), and rightly so. I imagine they were less comfortable about digging deeper for those pitchers than they were for the slugger, where it was very clear that teams were shy about going that fourth guaranteed year for him. For whatever reason, they were willing to do it, sweetened by the $16M/$8M option.
Guest
12:41
Should the Hall implement a five-vote (or other number) minimum on ballots?  Looking at the ballot history, there have only been three ballots with <5 eventual honorees on them, and two of those were the past two years and will likely fall off of that list pretty quickly.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
While I think the blank ballot or 1-candidate ballots are done by people who want to hijack the proceedings in order to draw attention to themselves (to say nothing of the flawed logic of "having the stage to himself" when Era Committee candidates have been elected), I'm not very comfortable with the Hall/BBWAA telling writers they HAVE to vote for a minimum number of candidates. It's your ballot, you're allowed to make an ass of yourself with it, and people are allowed to respond to that silliness.
TomBruno23
12:46
Pedro Martinez was the first 1970s born Hall of Famer. Who will be the first 1980s born Hall of Famer? Albert Pujols?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
My guess is either Joe Mauer, who will be eligible in 2024, or CC Sabathia, eligible in 2025. Pujols, if he plays through the end of his contract, won't be eligible until 2027. I think even if the other two need a couple cracks, they'll get in before that.
Vote_For_Kodos
12:48
Is Pete Rose correct when he says he did less to harm baseball than Alex Cora & the Astros?  Should Pete's ban be rescinded?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Reds
12:51
Thoughts on the Castellanos signing? (Assuming a full write-up is in the works by someone else at FG)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I think Craig Edwards has the writeup on that one coming, and ZiPS projects him to be worth 8.0 WAR over that span. I wouldn't have signed him for that kind of dough given his defense and my questions about his offensive consistency, but that will come out to about $8 million per win (I'm not adjusting for inflation because, well, I'm chatting) which isn't out of control. I'd rather go for a higher-ceiling guy with that kind of commitment, but good for him getting paid.
WinTwins410
12:55
Jay, is there some reason why the individuals on the Hall of Fame's small committees (IE, successors to the veterans committee) never divulge their ballots?  Can you think of an example where one of those voters (say, a writer) actually did say, "hey, I voted for Lee Smith" or "hey, I was one of the guys on the committee who didn't vote for Harold Baines."  Are they barred from disclosing that?  I know it's a small committee, so if four or five guys give up their votes, then you can pretty well guess how most of the others voted.  Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
It's the Hall's decision to keep it secret, and yes, voters are basically barred from talking about their votes publicly. I'm not sure if it's a blood oath or an NDA that voters have to sign, but you won't get any voter to talk on the record about his or her vote.
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