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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20

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Jay Jaffe

12:57

Now, should it be that way? I don't think the process is well served by secrecy at any turn, and one look at the spotty record of the Veterans Committees should tell you that.

Andrew

12:57

Gun to your head: Do you think Helton and Andruw Jones ultimately get elected by the BBWAA?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Helton will be elected by the writers, but after 2025. I don't see Jones getting in via the writers but maybe via committee. And please put away your gun, I'm not a fan of that metaphor.

Chris

12:59

What would you do with senzel if you ran the reds? Especially if lindor/seager aren't available. Trade for the next ss tier, hold him or trade for prospects and clear the 40 spot?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Lots of questions about Senzel in the queue. He had labrum surgery at the end of the past season so I don't see him as being a very good trade candidate right now. I also don't have a ton of faith in Aristedes Aquino maintaining his 2020 form. I think once Senzel gets healthy he'll find his way into the lineup at multiple positions, particularly given that he's a righty and Moustakas and Akiyama are lefties.

Nicky C

1:04

$64 million with two opts? Is this real life or is this fantasy? Or just the Reds...

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Oh jeez, I didn't see the opt-outs because I've been buried in my own work. That.. .I have questions. Again, not a wild fan of this move, and even less so if it leads them to punt on Senzel (which MLB Trade Rumors gives more credence to than I do).

Elliot

1:06

More likely to be traded: Betts or Senzel?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I suspect we're nearing a Betts trade.

Matt

1:06

Lindor for Senzel, Winker, Galvis and any single prospect from Cincy's system. With the state of Cleveland's corner OF, doesn't that maaaaaybe feel like a push in terms of their 2020-21 WAR while saving money and adding a ton of control years?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

that seems like too much for Cincy to give up in terms of club control years versus just two from Lindor.

Yikes

1:07

I just have to say, your HOF series is some of the best writing of the year, every year. I was struck, this year, maybe I was paying closer attention, to HOW MANY people's bios included "and also he committed some horrific violence." Is it more that we know more of this since the internet or that it's happened more, or that it's reported more, or what? And these are the greatest of players (not that that means anything, but still).

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Thanks for the kind words. While I doubt the frequency of, say, domestic abuse has changed appreciably among the player population, I think we as an industry are more aware and sensitive to such stuff than we were even five or 10 years ago, and rightly so. I don't know whether, say, reported domestic abuse is something that many voters consider to be disqualifying but I'd rather include that information when I write about a player and let that person make up his or her own mind. Given how slippery the Hall has been with the character clause, I can understand why a voter might consider something like DV to be disqualifying

Dave

1:14

Everyone else in baseball history is cheating to win. Rose may have been breaking the rules to the detriment of his team - he calls into question the very nature of the competition. His permanent ban is entirely justified and earned.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

thank you

Desperate Times

1:14

Do you at all think that Luhnow's rule-stretching reputation now at all vindicates Correa's accusations that he was counter-hacking Luhnow's Astros for first stealing info from STL?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

What Chris Correa did was a crime (however lax the Astros were) so no, I don't see him being vindicated even given where Luhnow ended up.

Jerry Lu

1:15

Any thoughts on whether the PED related players such as Manny or A-Rod will never be elected into the Hall if Bonds and Clemens are snubbed in the 2022 elections?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

it's tough to imagine Manny or A-Rod getting to 75% via the writers if Bonds and Clemens can't get there. Maybe 10 years down the road, there will be a critical mass of players on an Era committee that decides it's time to recognize them, but I wouldn't hold my breath. it could be decades before any of them is in .

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

1:16

Why preference for Allen and Minnie over Tony Oliva?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Stronger JAWS and mitigating circumstances for short MLB careers. Minoso was blocked by the color line, Allen was horribly mistreated by the Phillies, which contributed to his alcoholism. Wrote about both at length in The Cooperstown Casebook. Oliva — well, injuries suck, but he's 10-15 WAR behind the other two and hardly the only one whose career was curtailed by 'em.

I Like Her Not

1:19

Are there different types of falafel? I had it at a restaurant over the weekend (my first time) and it was only okay. I assume that there are variations that would make it tastier.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

There are three places within a few blocks of me and all of them have distinctly different falafel, some of which has to do simply with how long they fry it and how quickly it gets into my pita or plate.

We can do better

1:21

Let's do away with phrases like "pull the trigger" too, while we're at it.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

amen.

1:22

Any newcomers on next year ballot get to 5% in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

No; see today's article

Ray King

1:22

Did you take issue with Verlander's jokes this weekend? Did you find them in bad taste as many did? Do you think the baseball world is in any way owed some sort of explanation by JV since he has indeed been so outspoken about similar issues in the past?

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Yeah, that was horseshit, and his reputation as being vocally critical of the shenanigans of other players and teams looks a whole lot like hypocrisy if he's just shaking this off.

Scott

1:24

Will the sign-stealing alter your views towards Altuve?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

While I'm very skeptical about the wearable/buzzer stuff, the sign-stealing scandal in general has already has taken some of the fun out of Altuve, and certainly makes me suspicious of his postseason exploits. Likewise for Bregman and Springer.

Jerry Lu

1:26

Do you think Ichiro's achievements and stats compiled in Japan will add into the voters' consideration for electing him into the Hall in the future? If so, should the players' minor league stats, or stats in other lesser leagues be put into the Hall considerations?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

It's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and so no, I don't see Ichiro's Japanese stats being taken into consideration; the guy has 3,000 hits and a full resumé as it is, so I don't think it matters except as background. Without looking I assume he'll be a strong candidate for Japan's Hall of Fame, if he played enough years there (I'm not up to speed on their process).

Sanford

1:28

Could a BOS/SD/CIN trade involving both Betts and Senzel make sense? Betts to the Friars, Senzel + Myers to the Sox, and maybe some SD pitching prospects sent to both teams.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I'd have to think about it a lot longer than a rapid-fire chat question allows.

And that's true for a whole lot of trade proposals that come through here.

John Olerud

1:29

Far from it being a travesty that Jeter wasn't unanimously selected, I find the bigger (keeping these things in perspective) issue to be the narrowness by which Walker barely even got in. In fact, base on their comparative career numbers I’m truly surprised there hasn’t been much discussion about how Larry Walker’s career is a lot closer statistically to Jeter’s than impressions might imply. Indeed, Jeter has the milestone numbers that are important with HOF voters. And he was especially good when it ‘mattered’, but that has a lot to do with who and what teams he was lucky enough to play with and for. Of course, this is not so much to disparage Jeter, but more a comment on the “fame” element inherent to the HOF. Whatever the reasons, do you find it at all strange that there seems to be this prevailing feeling that somehow Walker doesn’t breathe the same air as Jeter? Or maybe you disagree entirely with this premise? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

It's the Hall of Fame, and some candidates are certainly more famous than others, as Jeter is relative to Walker. To do what he did, both on the field, and off, while a Yankee carries a much greater reach in terms of people's awareness of his career than that of Walker, who spent the vast majority of his career with two teams whose cities are relatively off the beaten path, baseball-wise.

Mets fan

1:32

If the NL gets the DH in 2021, how much more value does a guy like JD Davis have?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

It's a couple extra wins. Nelson Cruz played in only 120 games, none in the outfield, hit for a 163 wRC+ and was worth 4.3 WAR. Davis played in 140 games, hit for a 138 wRC+ and was worth 2.4 WAR by our system, and 1.0 by B-Ref's (-20 DRS ooof).

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