JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/23

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon and happy Friday, folks! Welcome to my first chat since the Hall of Fame results were announced. My reaction piece is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rolen-into-cooperstown-bbwaa-voters-avoid-...

and my candidate-by-candidate rundown here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2023-...

2:03

I spoke to the Ballot Tracker's mastermind, Ryan Thibodaux, for the first time in our collective history for today's FanGraphs Audio here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-ryan-thibodaux-chats-ballo...

2:04

I'll have my five-year HOF election outlook piece on Monday, and another FGA spot for next Friday as well.

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:04

Who gets inducted first: Jeff Kent or Chase Utley?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

My guess is Kent, even though he has to cool his heels for the next three years. Utley's facing quite a crowd on the next two ballots, and while I'll find room for him, I don't know that everybody who wants to vote for him necessarily will get to right off the bat.

2:06

Is Sabathia the only SP who has a good chance (borderline WAR but he sure has a story, so I see two years, like Vlad) before the big 4 active guys (Max, Justin, Zack, Clayton)?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

Alas, i think that's the case. Anybody else from the interim who might squeeze into the Hall, whether it's Pettitte and Buehrle from the current ballot or, like Felix Hernandez (eligible 2025 alongside CC) or Cole Hamels (2026 assuming he doesn't try another comeback) will have a long road to 75%.

Sonny

2:08

Very hopeful 2024 is Sheffield's year! Wildly under celebrated player that I hope gets full recognition next year.

Jay Jaffe

2:10

he needs slightly fewer votes than Larry Walker, who went into year 10 at 54.6% to Sheffield's 55%, but it's tough to weigh the stathead favorite with strong across-the-board WAR components in a short-ish career against the traditional milestone-driven but PED-linked (in a minor way) candidacy of Sheffield.

2:13

at worst, though, Sheffield's 55% this year guarantees him looks from the Era Committee, though this year's ballot construction and committee makeup offers ample evidence that there are no guarantees going down that road.

ChicagoDan

2:13

Good afternoon Jay! Like you I am happy to see that Scott Rolen crossed the threshold to election. However there seems to be a lot of hate for him getting in. Many people on my Facebook feeds have commented that he is a HOVG player and many others like Mattingly and Jeff Kent should go in before him. Why is that?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

I think it comes down to frames of reference. If all you have are triple crown stats, aren't thinking about defense too hard, it's easy to see Mattingly and Kent as superior, but defense matters, batting average and RBIs aren't the best measure of offense, and those same people almost certainly missed the boat on greats like Ron Santo.

I also think that the Phillies poisoned their own well. I count both Larry Bowa and Dallas Green as two of the most noxious public personas of my baseball lifetime, sour old-school hardasses who weren't happy unless they were ripping their players in public, and both let him have it.. That was red meat for a fan base that BOOED MIKE SCHMIDT. I can't blame Rolen for not signing that nine-figure extension to stick around Philadelphia in light of that treatment.

2:19

I was also struck by this passage in a piece by Katie Woo at The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/4122304/2023/01/24/scott-rolen-hall-of-fame-ml...):

2:20

I think that speaks to the way that the bluster of Green and Bowa may have backfired in that organization

troke

2:20

Baseball fans that aren't familiar with more advanced metrics seem to be shocked by Rolen's election. How do you explain how great he is, without getting into WAR or different defensive metrics?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

My elevator pitch on Rolen is that he's easily a top-five all-time defender at third base, and depending on whether you're going by counting stats or rate stats, somewhere in the top 10-20 offensively too. It's rare to find players who can combine both.

Joey Votto

2:21

Assuming no huge rebound, how long do you expect it will take Votto to be elected.

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Haven't looked too hard at what's beyond the 5-year window (Pujols and Molina retirements) but man, even if there were a few writers who poisoned the well in Cincy regarding Votto, the writers adore him. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets elected in his first year and doubt he has to wait more than 3.

Vlad’s Dad

2:23

I can’t wait to see Rolen don the Jays cap on his plaque, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

LOL. I think it's either Cardinals or blank, because his time in Cincy was pretty important too

Tony

2:24

With the caveat that predicting how committees vote is a fool's errand, looking ahead to next year's Veterans Committee ballot, how likely do you think we are to getting Class of 2024 Hall of Famer 'Cowboy' Joe West and will the discourse around that make the past week seem peaceful?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

Honestly, I can't envision the masses getting worked up about West in the Hall. No, I wasn't a fan, but he stuck around for freakin' ever to set the record for most games umpired, and in the absence of metrics that can illustrate his shortcomings that's an easy ticket in.

Tstats

2:26

Will next class be one of the largest induction classes in recent history? Wagner, Jones (?), Helton, Beltre, Beltran (?), Big Sexy (!), and then if the committee elects someone...

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I'd love to see a 4-man class, but the only candidates for whom i'd consider it realistic to expect to join Helton and Beltre next year are Sheffield and Wagner because there's the urgency factor (years 10 and 9, respectively). Beltran getting in from being almost 30 points out would be unprecedented, and Jones is pretty damn far too. Bartolo, for as beloved as he is, does have a PED suspension so I think at best you're looking at something like an Andy Pettitte-lite candidacy down-ballot

Inaccessible Rail

2:29

With pitch framing, we always talk about this as a catcher skill-and I'm sure it is a catcher skill. I don't mean to downplay this. But I wonder if "frameability" can be a pitcher skill? Has anyone ever looked at catchers who switch teams and see their framing improve or get worse and looked at the impact of particular pitchers on the catcher's ability to frame?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I don't know if anybody has done a comprehensive study, and it's probably worth doing, but this does also seem to have plenty to do with what we call command ("Control is the ability to throw strikes, and command is the ability to throw quality strikes" – Schilling). If a pitcher can hit those edges of the zone with a good framer on the other end, he's gonna reap the benefit

Mac Q.

2:32

Impending Mauer candidacy has me thinking again about catchers as a position in the HOF. Durability is such a problem even for HOF level catchers, do you think there should be more emphasis for that position placed on peak (7 seasons, etc.) than there should be for others? I wonder if catchers have a higher percentage of their WAR come from their peak years than any other position.

Jay Jaffe

2:36

I'm pretty sure they do. Back when JAWS wasn't even called JAWS I published the share of a player's score that came from peak. I should look into that again.

As I reminded somebody in the middle of my ongoing Twitter brawl over Mauer, it's very rare for a catcher to have the longevity of a Molina or a Pudge (both of 'em). Mauer, Posey, Martin, and McCann all retired in their mid-30s, and concussions were a major part of the reason. (Also, holy hell why did I go back and forth with the irate Twins fan who couldn't remember how concussions were a factor in Mauer's move from catcher and his subsequent decline)

Alby

2:36

Thanks for the appreciation on Scott Rolen. As someone who watched Rolen every day with the Phillies, and perhaps the last Phillies fan who still likes him, I should point out that his career was hampered by playing half his games on the concrete of Veterans Stadium. That led to back injuries that hurt his mobility ever after. But he still cut off more balls to his left than any 3B I've ever seen. Rollins never had to make a throw from deep in the hole until Rolen left.

Jay Jaffe

2:37

Very good point that I never even made this week. It's hyperbole to say that turf + concrete is murder but it didn't help Rolen's cause at all

adambulldog

2:37

Have you addressed Sal Bando's HoF case? He seems tantalizingly close to meet the JAWS standard.

Jay Jaffe

2:38

No, but I've been thinking a lot about him since he passed away last weekend and I've got a 3B-themed piece in mind that harkens back to leaving him on the cutting floor of the Casebook roundup (see the Buddy Bell comment). Will try to assemble my thoughts into something coherent next week

Inaccessible Rail

2:42

Edwin Diaz re-signed with the Mets before free agency started, so he was technically never a free agent, right? So is his contract considered an extension? That seems weird to me, if it is. Also, I understand that newly-signed free agents automatically have some no-trade protection, until June. Not that the Mets would want to trade him, but does Diaz have this same no-trade protection too?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

The World Series ended November 5, free agency began on November 6, Diaz agreed on the 7th and the deal became official on the 9th (based on MLB.com), all of which was during during the 5-day exclusivity period following the World Series. I believe he's still considered to have been a free agent; Cot's Contracts lists him as such

Oaktown Blues

2:46

Thoughts on the Irvin trade? It kinda feels like the A's keep identifying secondary trade pieces they like, and then they forget to ask for the main piece

Jay Jaffe

2:47

Yeah I don't know what they're doing besides making that team even less interesting right now.

Bubba

2:47

I get the sense that people are often more upset at Cohen for spending too much than they are for teams like the A's, Pirates, Reds, etc. from barely spending at all. Do you think that's accurate, and do you think the sentiment varies between writers, hardcore fans, and regular fans?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

Baseball executives and a compliant media have conditioned fans to have their pearls ready to clutch and their fainting couches well-positioned when it comes to big spending. Hell, the game's economic structure underscores this, with the competitive balance tax at one end but no salary floor and very little transparency when it comes to the spending expectations of teams that receive revenue sharing at the other.

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