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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon and welcome to my first chat in this new time slot as well as my first one of 2021!
2:01
While I wait for the queue to gain steam, some housekeeping... First, a fond farewell to colleague Craig Edwards, who's making a leap to becoming an analyst for the Major League Baseball Players Association https://blogs.fangraphs.com/goodbye-and-thank-you/
2:04
Second, I awoke to the pleasant surprise of having my Missed Time and the Hall of Fame series nominated for a SABR Analytics Research Conference Award. Colleagues Craig, Ben Clemens and Meg Rowley were also nominated in other categories, as were many friends and familiar names. Congrats to all of these fine nominees! Do read these pieces when you get a chance, and vote on them starting next week. https://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-for-2021-sabr-analytics-c...
2:05
Here's my candidate-by-candidate roundup of this week's Hall of Fame voting. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2... My 5-year outlook piece will run on Monday, and wow has it change even with nobody elected this year.
2:06
Get your FanGraphs mug while you still can:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-fangraphs-mug-is-now-available...
OK, on to the questions....
Inaccessible Rail
2:06
When I look at spotrac for Mets payroll info, I see a total of about 160 million, which makes me think that they could sign Bauer without hitting the salary "cap." But I also see a bunch of guys on the roster listed at $0. Am I misunderstanding the site?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Allow me to humbly suggest that you check the Payroll tab of our Roster Resource Mets page https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/mets, which estimates their payroll for CBT purposes at $181.55 million, making a Bauer signing likely to push them over the threshold.
fake baseball fan
2:08
With all the talk of next year's ballot featuring Ortiz and A-Rod, how do you think Joe Nathan, who was slightly lesser than Billy Wagner in most ways, will fare?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
JAWS-wise, Nathan has a slight advantage over Wagner, but my hybrid WAR-WPA-WPA/LI metric — which I use instead of JAWS for relievers and will probably codify as such at some point — he's a bit below. Nathan doesn't have the eye-opening dominance stats, the saves, or or as compelling a back story as Wagner, either. I think he'll get some support but don't see an immediate path to election.
PhilDiggety
2:10
Have you been reading Joe Posnanski's series on the best players not in the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Not comprehensively, but yes, and I agree with his choice of Minnie Miñoso as number one.
Doug
2:11
Is the Blue Jays starting lineup stacked enough to alleviate the woeful lack of starting pitching...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
That lineup is stacked, Hyun Jin Ryu is still excellent, and I do think Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, and Ross Stripling are all much better than they showed last year. Their rotation is 10th in our Depth Charts rankings, and while there will be some signings to come, i think at worst they'l wind up in the middle there.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:15
Do the Dodgers have a platoon problem? Only reliable RH bats are Mookie, Smith, Taylor, and Pollock.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
I think it maters less when you have lefties who can hit lefties, though Seager and Bellinger have had their ups and downs in that area. I also think that if they don't sign Justin Turner they'll add another righty bat somewhere
Hall Watch 2021/22
2:17
It's been mentioned a few times by some writers/pundits that a good portion of the "no" votes on Bonds/Clemens are waiting to shift to "yes" next year as a means of the full ten year ballot wait being their "punishment" for 'roids. Do you put any credence in this theory? It does feel as though certain writers who put stock in the "sacred honor of voting" are firmly locked into their viewpoint regarding PEDs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I think there might be some small faction that 's been waiting until year 10 either as a small way of punishing the pair or because they're holding out to see if additional evidence/perspective emerge. I do think that the more likely factor in flipping votes will be the arrival of David Ortiz on the ballot. he reportedly failed the 2003 survey test, and while Rob Manfred publicly disavowed the results of that during the retirement tour love-fest, I think it makes for some serious cognitive dissonance to anoint him while holding the even earlier allegations against Clemens and Bonds against them.
More to come on the topic in Monday's 5-year outlook piece. This year's returns tell me they're probably not going to get to 75% with the writers, though
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
2:20
Did you laugh a lot or a little when you read Schilling's "woe is me" post?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
i took one look at the formatting and skimmed a couple grafs, then moved on with my life. The only things that mattered were the points digested by the writers: he wants off the ballot and is mad at only 71.1% of the writers for voting for him. For a guy who says he's over it, he's definitely not over it.
Matt V
2:21
Have you considered developing a defense specific version of JAWS? A lot of players with long careers end up with a negative total defensive WAR even when they were outstanding fielders in their primes. I get that the math might be a little messy, but this kind of focus could be illuminating.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
defensive WAR is really only useful if you're trying to gauge the relative impact of position on a player's total value, because positional adjustments are included. I don't think there's anything to be done with it as far as JAWS is concerned. If you're using JAWS you're comparing position to position, and fielding runs (Total Zone + DRS) is the way to go, even while allowing that not everybody spends 100% of their careers at the position in question.
Ben
2:25
How surprised would you have been, at the beginning of the offseason, to know that as of the end of January that James McCann would have the 5th largest guarantee of all free agents?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
a little but I would figure that it was more a commentary on the lack of FA movement to that point, which was at least somewhat expected.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:25
2021 free agents for the Dodgers include Kershaw, Seager, Kenley, and Taylor. Add in the loss of Kiké, Joc, and possibly Turner: are the Dodgers approaching a (soft) rebuild of its core? That seems ridiculous to even type out.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I wouldn't call it a rebuild but it's inevitable that players turn over. The Dodgers' system has been thriving in recent years, and their payroll is also very flexible. I suspect they'll work to keep Kershaw (probably another short term deal) and Seager, and Buehler and Bellinger — and they can afford to.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:27
Please rank the following in order of most to least likely to get elected next year, and explain why: Schilling, Bonds/Clemens, Rolen, Helton, Ortiz
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
None of them will be elected next year, see next Monday's piece.
They
2:28
Luckily, the Mets front office and ownership has managed to stay out of the headlines this offseason so that we can focus on baseball. What are your thoughts on Bauer? Beyond the baggage that comes with him (I feel like he's the wrong guy at the wrong time for the Mets), how good do you think he actually is? Not a lot of great seasons on his resume, and I would worry he's nowhere near his 2020 self pitching outside of the NL Central.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I'll assume the sarcasm font is on for those first two lines given the Jared Porter sh*tshow. Leaving aside the toxicity of Bauer for the moment to focus on performance only, I see a high-upside pitcher whose track record contains two elite seasons (one of them very short), three good ones, and two serviceable ones near the beginning of his career that were part of his growth. Steamer and ZiPS projections both put him in the top 10 for next year, which doesn't seem unreasonable.

I would not sign him based upon the possibility that he becomes a PR disaster, but some team will.
Colin
2:35
Seems like the shortstop musical chairs are coming to an end soon, where do you think Gregorious ends up? And who are the fallback options for the teams that don't get him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I see Didi going back to the Reds.
2:39
As to what to do if they don't get him, all of the top free agent options for this year are off the market, as is Freddy Galvis, but next year offers a bumper crop: Seager, Lindor, Correa, Story and Baez, only some of whom will be secured before then via long-term extensions. Hanser Alberto and Jonathan Villar stand out as available players who could serve as stopgaps; a team wanting more than that is going to have to pull off a trade. Maybe Willy Adames once Wander Franco is ready.
vegasTaylor
2:39
Hey Jay, are all stats on Fangraphs updated daily?  I am thinking about getting a yearly membership to use Fangraphs to handicap baseball everyday.  Thank you!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Yes they're updated daily, usually by the time most of us are going out to milk the cows. We'd love it if you would buy a membership https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/
The Upside
2:40
The NYY SP strategy is... volatile. But on the other hand, after The Guy, they have, like, 5 guys who could possibly be very good for 30 October IP. They have enough innings among all the arms, are you in favor of this attempt to harness lightning? (Leaving aside both the CBT silliness and signing an upstanding fellow like Bauer.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I think they need a higher-floor guy in the mix to eat innings, so I was surprised they let Tanaka go back to Japan. I guess they feel that German, Montgomery, and maybe Schmidt can offset the high-upside/high-risk group of Kluber/Taillon/Severino. And I don't mean to give Deivi Garcia short shrift here, but I see him as a rung above that first trio.
Minoso For The Hall
2:43
Joe Posnanski recently finished a list of 100 Players he'd put in the hall of fame for The Athletic, capping off with Minoso and Buck O'Neil. Were you able to follow along/have thoughts on his list & reasonings? And more to the point, who would be your Top Five/Ten that you would put in the hall were you given the power?
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