JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/21

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Jay Jaffe

2:45

Mentioned this above but to expand: Minnie, Buck, Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Thurman Munson, Kenny Lofton, pioneer Doc Adams... I'm coming around on Tiant. Curt Flood as a special case.

Sodo Mojo

2:46

Felix Hernandez is still on the outside looking in for Hall of Fame consideration but looked sharp in Spring Training last year before shutting it down for 2020. What would he need to do to move into clear HOF consideration in the next 3 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

Roughly speaking, get his JAWS to 50 (CC Sabathia is at 50.9 and I'm almost certain I'll vote for him even though that's short), which means getting another 11-12 bWAR. That's a very tall order given his recent track record.

2:48

What do you think about a 5-year peak for HOF consideration or 10 years, or whatever, as compared to 7?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

7 is between 5 and 10 which is why I like it more than either of those other numbers. I began JAWS by using 5 consecutive. 5 alone doesn't do enough to tell us much while 10 converges too much with career value.

YardGoat

2:49

Bold take that probably isn't that bold -- I don't think anyone gets elected to the HOF next year. When was the last time there were back to back years with noone elected?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

1958 and '60 (the voting was biennial then)

Curtis

2:53

Thoughts on Schilling's request? And the HOF initial response?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

See the above candidate-by-candidate link, and my initial rundown of the results https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hall-of-fame-voters-pitch-another-shutout/

45 blows billygoats

2:54

Next year will also see Timmy Lincecum on the ballot...HOFer?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

not even close, alas. Just 1682 innings, 110 innings, and 19.6 bWAR. He's not even close to Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen among 2x CY winners who deserved longer looks

Dodger fan

2:56

1 year/7 million for joc seems like a steal. I’m surprised the dodgers didn’t beat that. Who takes over LF vs righties? Pollock hasn’t had great platoon splits

Jay Jaffe

2:58

1/$7m is a steal for Joc but I think the Dodgers figured he'd do better than that, and again, I presume they've got at least one major move coming up, with Marcell Ozuna connected to them (which complicates Pollock's situation unless the DH returns) as well as Turner.

fake baseball fan

2:59

Have you flipped your view for the future on Helton, Wagner, Rolen, and Jones? Have you made Rolen's likely eventual election earlier in projections? Do you now think Wagner or Jones will make it in in the 10 year window?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

the candidate-by-candidate piece and Monday's upcoming one take swings at these questions

3:00

Why does the AAA Pacific Coast League seem to boost offense even beyond wrc+, eg, lots of players graduate with 150+ wrc+ and only end up being average-ish hitters (pederson, ty france, jared walsh). It seems that when hitters in the east do that it's not only rarer but they become studs (eg acuna)

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Lots of high altitude spots, esp. Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, El Paso, even Las Vegas is 2000 feet above sea level.

Alex

3:03

With Walker just elected and Helton on the ballot, we're hearing a lot about Coors field. A lot of elected Red Sox and Cubs also have dramatic home/road splits, but is there another home park (past or present) that inflates offense to a degree people don't consider enough?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

The Phillies' Baker Bowl produced insane splits for Chuck Klein and before that Cy Wiliams, both of whom are among the top 5 in terms of home-road OPS differential. The Metrodome was very hitter-friendly for all but the last few years of its existence.

See here for the OPS differential table https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-todd...

Pat

3:06

I am always surprised that Gary Sheffield doesn't get more HOF support. Any idea why that is? Is it advanced stats guys not voting for him due to his low WAR (mostly due to shaky defensive stats, as you've noted)? Old school guys that didn't like his attitude? Nebulous PED ties? ( which will take some mental gymnastics to include Papi, but, not Sheffield come 2022). I always wonder if race plays a part, too. For 20 years he was an absolute offensive force. Don't see how Jim Rice gets in, but, Sheff doesn't.

Jay Jaffe

3:07

His support has tripled in two years time, and I think it's more likely he goes in than not, but the question is by which mechanism. Again, not to clog the queue with this as I've got ample reading material on this in recent and future writeups

Angry Cubs Fan

3:07

Apparently the Cubs owner is talking about increases the payroll for the team to compete. Why would the Cubs sell Darvish for pennies and cut Schwarber if that was the case? Are upset Cubs fans right tup be angry at the front office?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

Yes, they have every right to be angry. The team they had was perfectly capable of contending in 2021 given a normal offseason of addressing needs (i.e., retaining or replacing Quintana and Lester)

tim

3:09

do the phillies make a move for ss or 2b in your opinion? maybe kolten wong?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

I like Segura more at 2B than SS but unless they bring back Didi the market is bone dry. If Segura's the SS, they've got Scott Kingery for 2B under contract through at least 2023 and he's only a short season removed from an excellent age-25 season. If Wong is affordable they could move Kingery back into a superutility role but I think they should be spending on pitching.

Ben

3:12

Do you think Papelbon and K-Rod will get any HoF support? Or will they be viewed in a clear tier below Wagner and Nathan?

Jay Jaffe

3:13

They're a tier below and with significant black marks against them — K-Rod with two domestic altercation incidents and Papelbon with his Harper-choking incident, and also just 700ish innings. They're not going anywhere votewise

Inaccessible Rail

3:13

Just finished your "Missed Time" series and it was great, thanks. I normally read just about every non-fantasy FG article, but I think I missed that series due to my early-Covid-19 funk.

Jay Jaffe

3:14

it was easy to miss given its timing, but thank you for the kind words!

Jeff

3:14

Whoa, big loss in Edwards

Jay Jaffe

3:15

I'm very excited for Craig and for the MLBPA, and... stay tuned.

Jesse

3:15

Hi Jay, thanks for the chat! You always seem to be enjoying delicious food. Are there any cookbooks that set your heart on fire and that you would recommend?

Jay Jaffe

3:19

You know, it's been awhile since I was seriously into cookbooks but I did enjoy the Donna Hay ones (The Instant Cook, The New Cook, and Flavours), and Hugh Acheson's The Broad Fork. For most of the past 15 years I have tended to hunt down recipes on the internet and clip and save them. Lately I use an app called Paprika which has a desktop and phone component and it's great for archiving, sharing, and creating grocery lists.

fake baseball fan

3:19

Are Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke (Kershaw loosely here) sure things for the Hall yet?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

Verlander and Kershaw are sure things by now. and I think the other two are pretty close. Scherzer getting to 3,000 strikeouts (he's 216 away) or 200 wins (he's 25 away) probably is enough to seal the deal and I think he'll do both. Greinke's 311 strikeouts away from 3K and he's young enough to get there.

Isolated Thinker

3:22

What's your take on McCann and Martin? Both have strikingly similar careers, McCann arguably the slightly better offensive player, but both were consistently elite defenders. Does the induction of Ted Simmons work in their favor, considering the close career WAR totals between the 3?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

I think that if we're going to talk about Yadier Molina's framing stats being part of the foundation of his Hall of Fame case, then we have to talk about McCann and Martin in that context as well. That said, neither won a championship or got the same level of fluffy puff pieces from the media as Molina did so I think they'll have rougher sledding. Wrote about all three in April 2019 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-martin-...

curt Flood Yes

3:24

While Flood's numbers and longevity may not warrant it, his incredible sacrifice for the players is very under-appreciated and overwhelmed by the adulation of Marvin Miller. Flood's courage in combating both racism and the reserve clause should be honored.

Jay Jaffe

3:26

Yes. While he was a very good player, his playing merits alone aren't enough to elect him, but I've come around to the idea that the bigger-picture stuff elevates him enough to make an exception

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