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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/3/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Hey folks, good afternoon, happy new year, and welcome to my first chat of 2019. Sorry for the delay — the payoff of a long game of phone tag came due. Anyway, let's get started...
Sirras
12:16
Do you have any baseball-related resolutions for the new year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
1) More time at the ballpark — figuring out child care coverage of a 2-year-old when both my wife and I are working within the confines of daily baseball coverage is a trick we have yet to master.

2) Spread out my viewing among more teams.
Travis
12:18
Given Larry Walker's (potential?) surge in balloting so far, and assuming he finishes above 50% - still more likely for him to go in via the Today's Game committee? Or are we saying there's a chance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
We're really kind of in uncharted territory here.
12:22
we've never seen a surge from 20-something to 75%+ within a 2-year span, and we really haven't seen even anybody recent get in from mid-50s to 75% in one year. I wrote about big jumps in the modern era of voting history (1966 onward) in connection to the candidacies of Bagwell and Raines a few years back (https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/hall-of-fame-ballot-vote-biggest-jum...) and the closest analogue I can come up with is Luis Aparicio, who went from 36.9% to 84.6% in three years. And that was years 3-6 within a 15-year cycle.
12:23
If Walker can get into the 60s, then maybe he's got a shot? But I still think the Today's Game committee is a better bet, long term
DJ Kitty
12:23
What has surprised you the most in HoF voting since you started the JAWS project? Also which players surprised you personally the most in being HoF worthy (or not) based on JAWS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
1) that actual voters, including some of the biggest names in the industry, actually take JAWS seriously, and have taken undersupported candidates such as Raines, Edgar, Walker and even Bagwell to heart. Maybe some of those guys  get in eventually without JAWS. But all of them? I have a hard time believing that.

2) There were so many revelations early on, not always in favor of guys who got in, and they have been guys over whom there was a lot of old school vs. new school battles. Blyleven, Morris, Rice, Murphy, Parker, Santo, etc. I don't think revelations of that caliber sneak up on us anymore because we're checking WAR daily.
Friend
12:27
If you were to pick five under-thirty players who have the best chance to make to Hall of Fame who would they be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Trout, obviously — so far ahead of the pack that I'm going to assume you mean five OTHER guys. Mine probably would be Machado, Betts, Stanton, Simmons and Arenado, not necessarily in that order.
JC
12:29
It was a shame to see Jim Edmonds get the one-off. Do you think he eventually gets the nod thru the committee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
The most we can say about the newest iteration of the committees is that longevity and a single statistical hook seem to resonate. Morris' 254 wins, Smith's 478 saves, Baines' 2,866 hits. Trammell... that one doesn't quite fit into that schema but I think the point stands. Edmonds doesn't have the longevity or the statstical hook, not in the way that Lofton, with his 622 steals might.
LPFan
12:33
Is Trout on track to be the best player ever? best hitter ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
He's got a shot, for sure, and in terms of the evolution of the game (and the human body, vis a vis nutrition and training) and caliber of competition, I think it's fair to say that he might already be there.

I think the conversation about best player ever basically comes down to Ruth, Mays, Bonds and Trout. Segregation, a limited player pool and PEDs cloud the discussion but those are the guys that have been light years beyond the competition for a sustained time. Obviously not as sustained for Trout yet, but he's in the picture.
Brick
12:37
What is a realistic slash line for Tulowitzki pre-Didi's return?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
Steamer has him at .252/.312/.426, 99 wRC+, which is about where he was in 2016. I think that if he's healthy and can elevate the ball (something he wasn't doing in 2017 compared to years prior), Yankee Stadium will goose that line a bit, but that's still a big bet on health, and  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. There aren't a lot of recent positives to draw upon for 30+ year old middle infielders missing a full year, as I wrote back in late August. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-season-without-troy-tulowitzki/
Not mean but regressing
12:39
Your mock ballot talked a bit about ballot management. So why vote for Rivera, who is already prepping his speech for July? I agree he is obviously worthy, but he and Halladay would not be in my 10 this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Given that nobody has actually come forward to exclude Rivera yet, out of 140+ ballots, there is no way on God's green earth that I'm going to be That Guy, not when Rivera meant so much to me, particularly dating back to when I was a fan rather than a pro.

And while Halladay is polling well on the published ballots, there's still the possibility he gets dissed hard on the unpublished ones the way Mussina and Schilling, other guys with fewer than 300 wins, have. I'd rather get him above 75% and off. I'm not going to be the hardass who keeps the dead guy off my ballot the first time.
Hello
12:43
How many opt-outs does Harper get, and after what year(s)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
i've long held that he gets at least one. Maybe only one, and I'd guess it's after year 3 or 4 in a 10-year deal.
Yankees
12:44
... so let's say Manny chooses New York. Not so much what they WILL do, but what SHOULD they do with Miggy? Some say he should pull a Braun and play LF (but they have, like, 5 LFs). Some say just put him at DH. Some say 1B (but range is his problem so..), some say "trade him for an SP" (but they already have 5 so...).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
If they land Manny, I think they either let him start at SS for half a season and see where that goes — obviously, tough luck for Tulo, and possibly bad news for Didi — or trade Andujar. The asymmetry of Yankee Stadium is such that left field ideally requires an outfielder capable of manning center, a Granderson or Gardner type who has excellent mobility and decent routes. That's no place for a novice like Andjuar. As to what you trade him for, if you can't fill an immediate need, you can probably get a haul of prospects that can help sometime between 2020 and 2022, or add Frazier to the package and bring home something big.
Sirras
12:48
Mike Trout - suppose he was a replacement level player for the next 5 years. Do you still consider him a HOF-caliber player based on peak alone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
yes. He's at 63.8 for his 7-year peak, where the average HOF CF is at 44.5. He's at 64.1 JAWS where the average is at 57.7. His heavy lifting is done as far as the HOF is concerned. A guy who has six years where he was either 1st or 2nd in the MVP voting — either 1 or 1A in the minds of most people for the question of the league's best player — is a Hall of Famer whether that takes place within a 7-year span or a 20-year one.
Josh
12:50
Is Edwin Encarnacion a reasonable comp for Miguel Andujar? Shoddy defense with a plus bat, who will do enough at the plate to allow teams to forget the defense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
It's not a bad comp but Encarnacion was a more patient hitter at a young age. In his age-23 season, his first full-ish one (117 G, 467 PA), he saw 3.84 pitches per PA and walked in 8.8% of his PA, whereas Andujar saw 3.52 pitches and walked just 4.1%. Andujar does strike out less (16.0%, vs 16.7%, a gap that would be wider if nomralized to league).
Friend
12:54
That's Andrelton Simmons? Over guys like, for example, Harper or Lindor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Simmons is at 34.9 WAR through age 28; he's the next Ozzie Smith type, glove-first infielder candidate, a guy who's going to have an above-standard peak very soon. Lindor is certainly a guy I'd put in my top 10 such candidates but he's just completed his age-24 season, and is at 23.9 WAR — just a further distance to travel, and likewise for Correa (18.3 through age-23). Harper would be in my top 10 but that's a bet on upside, because the consistency hasn't been there.
Ryan
12:58
Rick Reuschel accumulated 69.7 WAR, 200+ wins, and 2000+ strikeouts in his career, but he got only 0.4% of the vote and immediately fell off the ballot in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  What was wrong with his candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
He was rather unheralded in his day. Two top-3 CY finishes, 10 years apart, just 3 All-Star seasons, and no black ink in Triple Crown categories. 3x top 10 in ERA, 5x top 10 in K, but all 8th, 9th, or 10th. And the won-loss record didn't stick out much. One 20-win season, a handful with more losses than wins. Voters didn't have WAR and JAWS to look at in 1997 when he came on the ballot but even now I don't think he'd outpoll a guy like Pettitte who had a much higher profile career.
Alec
1:02
Who’s your favorite all time player to watch, but that you couldn’t make a good HoF case for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Probably Fernando Valenzuela, but I might also include Davey Lopes and Ron Cey from those late 70s-early 80s Dodgers teams that were my first love. I can make better cases for Steve Garvey and Reggie Smith, if not actually good cases.
Bryce
1:04
does Harison Bader have a realistic shot at a 20/20 season in 2019?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
I would think so. Steamer has him for 16/14 for his age-25 season, so you'd figure the range of distributions puts 20/20 at maybe a 70th percentile outcome in there.
dan
1:05
Yadi Molina? Ehh??
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Do we have to discuss Molina's Hall of Fame case every week? Please, I've covered this territory in past chats and recently in a conversation with the Athletic's Mark Saxon. Google.
Baseball Brit
1:06
Dear Mr. Jaffe. Will you be attending the London Series? We have some smashing ales you may like. I
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
Oh man, I would LOVE to go, but as yet I've made no attempt to even see if it's feasible, the reality of life as a parent of a 2-year-old. But hmmm...
KD
1:06
When you were writing your HOF articles during the last two months, did you know you were going to be on MLBTV at the time?  I found your articles to be less of a "strong take" and more measured/reserved while I was reading them.
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