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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon from Brooklyn, where it's a comparatively balmy 11 degrees (-4 with wind chill). The Hall of Fame circus has left town, but having missed last week's post-announcement chat slot, I'll still take questions on that topic, as well as hot stove stuff
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
12:04
Even though I am an obsessive baseball fan, i don't know much about Hector Santiago. So I was surprised to see him #6 on the Mets starter depth chart in Szymborski's ZIPS article on the Mets, ahead of Cory Oswalt. Is this just a projections thing, or has there been word that the Mets see him this way?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I wouldn't read much into it, honestly. Santiago has been a versatile and occasionally competent swingman over the years, while Oswalt was dreadful as a rookie last year. We're talking about a projection for 38 innings versus one for 19 innings, and the likelihood is that there will be some jockeying in the spring, and perhaps another free agent added on a minor league deal who supersedes them both.
Guest
12:06
I tweeted you this already but:
Scott Rolen:
70.2/43.7/56.9/ 17 Yrs / 7 ASG / 122 OPS+

Biggio:
65.5/41.8/53.7/ 20 Yrs / 7 ASG / 112 OPS+

Thoughts?  Shouldn't he be getting a lot more love from stat people?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Rolen gets plenty of love from "stat people" — it's the general BBWAA electorate that has been relatively reserved (17% included him this year), but that's also a function of the clogged ballot, which will become considerably roomier over the next five years, as I wrote earlier this week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/closing-the-floodgates-the-next-five-years...). I expect Rolen's vote share to climb, especially as he'll be the next guy in the Raines-Martinez-Walker lineage of players who get a push from the analytics community
yojiveself
12:09
Would you give Harper/Machado a 10 year contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Yes, though which one would depend on the needs of my team. I would very much like to own each player's next 5 or so years, and after that, if I'm out of my GM/President of Baseball Ops job, it's somebody else's problem!
AT
12:11
Is Jenrry Mejia really the best the Sox will do in their pen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I strongly suspect he's not the last reliever they'll sign before Opening Day, and after 3 years away from organized ball, i would also strongly suspect he spends a lot of time in the minors before getting a taste of the majors. He's a depth piece
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
12:13
If I was a HoF voter, I'd vote for Bonds & Clemens, and I'm glad that so many actual voters are doing so. But I'm not crazy about the "can't tell baseball's story without them" rationale, as wouldn't that apply to Pete Rose just as much?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Yes, but Pete Rose did The One Thing guaranteed to get you banned for life, and he's absolutely too dumb to see how easy it would be to get reinstated. I could have written him a press release that would have gotten him restored: "Hi, I'm Pete Rose and I have a gambling addiction. Through years of counseling, I have learned about the dangers of gambling and the harm that I have caused, and I understand how badly I have erred in the eyes of Major League Baseball. If reinstated, I will spend the remainder of my years helping to inform and the general public about this problem while continuing to undergo counseling. I hope the commissioner sees fit to reinstate me. "
12:17
Other than wounding his pride, I can't see what negatives there are to preventing that statement from happening.
Nelson
12:18
Would you rather HOF voting the way it is now, or 5 year limit, but unlimited votes for ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I hate the 10-slot rule and love the Binary Ballot idea (as former BBWAA pres Derrick Goold termed it). 5 chances seems about right.
Guest
12:19
When will people start to recognize Kevin Brown? He was 5%ed off but no one even recognizes him on lists of best not to reach 5%. He should get more love
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Ahem:  https://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2014/01/06/jaws-and-the-2014-hall-o...

Kevin Brown presented a rather unlovable public persona and did himself no favors by winding up in the Mitchell Report and then on the ballot (2011) without ever really addressing the matter. Because he was 5%'d, he's ineligible for Today's Game committee consideration through the end of what would have been his ballot tenure (2020). As a sub-5% one-and-done guy, he'll have an uphill climb to wind up on a committee ballot (so far, only Ted Simmons has even gotten on a ballot, while Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich have not).
Kurupt FM
12:25
Do you see the current trend of high value placed on prospects and low value being placed on free agents swinging too far to one side? Could a middling franchise actually take advantage of a cold free agent market and find a lot of efficiency in free agents?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
We may already be at that point. A team with a bit of money to play with right now could really fortify itself without breaking the bank, but it's telling that revenues have become so decoupled from on-field performance that most teams see such expenditures as too risky.

The system is broken, and while we wait for the two sides to hash it out — perhaps with a strike — it's going to take a relatively daring team to go for it and have success.
ChickenOfTheSea
12:28
It's 72 here in South Florida but the Marlins still exist so, you know, swings and roundabouts. Speaking of which, JT Realmuto is going to be a Padre, right? They're going to send a few of their 9 billion prospects, and this thing is finally going to happen? Please?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
my guess is that it's the Dodgers who finally nab Realmuto, thus salvaging a pretty unimpressive offseason beyond their retention of Kershaw. Aside from the return of Corey Seager, they won't have a single position where they're really better than in 2018, and as Brian Cashman likes to say, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:32
What is YOUR favorite fix to the "frozen" free agent market that we have been seeing? (deadline, caps, floors, max deals, etc)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Remove the incentives to lose big by creating a draft lottery system that rewards teams for competing. Fall short of the wild card? You've got a better chance at getting the top pick of the draft than a team that was dead last in payroll en route to 100+ losses.
James
12:38
How many more years does Andrelton Simmons need to perform at his current level to be a HOFer and who would be on his cap? He has 19 and 20 left on his current deal and his best years by far have been with the Angels
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
probably about 4 more years in the 5-6 win range (he's at 13.3 bWAR over the past 2 years, for reference). That more or less eyeballs as getting him to the peak standard (WAR7) for shortstops. As to hats, it's far too early to care — right now, it's obviously the Angels, but we have no idea where he'll spend his 30s. A step down in play, but for a championship team, changes the equation.
Alex
12:40
What should us Braves fans think about Gohara?  Starter, reliever?  Is he still a top prospect or does his stock take a big hit after last season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I think he's got a good chance to beat Mothra in their upcoming battle. Beyond that, I'll direct you to Eric and Kiley's latest writeup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-atlanta-braves/. From what I can glean, if his command and changeup can be at least average — and if he can stay healthy – he's a starter.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:43
Even on a 10 year contract. Harper and Machado "Should" be productive for the first 7! (All prime years!). If I am a team this is a HUUGE contention window. I'm willing to build a team around him and "suffer" the last 3.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Hell yes.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:43
Would you be open to Pete Rose's posthumous entry into the Hall of Fame? On one hand, he has been an absolute clown since his ban from baseball...on the other hand, is that too petty?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
He never did anything productive to get himself reinstated. He lied about his gambling for years and years, then tried to make a buck out of coming clean via his book. To hell with him, I don't want him in the Hall, even after death.
"super" teams
12:45
It's a dumb term, but, among the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Nationals... did any of them actually get better yet this offseason? I guess the Paxton move and such mean the Yankees did.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I'd call the Nationals' efforts — adding Corbin, Sanchez, Rosenthal, Gomes/Suzuki, Dozier and Adams a very solid effort to improve, and I'd put the Yankees there. Much less to be said in the positive about the other three teams' offseasons, though there's still time to change that.
Rivera
12:49
Why do you think he was the guy, finally? Yes, fully qualified, etc, very famous. But is it just because no one has ever said a bad word about the man? Could that not have been said about a Musial or Griffey, etc?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
As I wrote last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2019-ha...), Rivera's unanimity represented a perfect storm of voter accountability, transparency, a candidate who was the best ever at his speciality, and a man universally respected throughout the industry, one who lived up to the responsibility of being the last player to wear Jackie Robinson’s otherwise-retired number 42, in order for it all to come together. Yes, it's ridiculous that it took so long, and that better (more complete) players did not have the title of Mr. Unanimous, but I'm glad it happened.

BTW, it's a good place to mention that today is Jackie Robinson's 100th birthday. He'd be mad as hell about the state of our country and the game of baseball with regards to minority representation, which should present cause for deep reflection on all of our parts.
Daniel
12:52
Understanding your position on using bWAR vs fWAR for JAWS, do you think Andy Pettitte's candidacy may be the only one that turns on which WAR is used?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I think the high raw ERA (still a very good 117 ERA+), lack of strikeouts, lack of awards/honors, and HGH admission will all do more to keep Pettitte out than which WAR is used to evaluate his career.
Moltar
12:55
I'm a little meh on the totality of the Mets' on-field acquisitions, but I am very encouraged by some of the front office hires they've made. I wa salready encouraged by the Guttridge hiring, but having Russell Carleton in the organization is amazing
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
It was very cool to see the news about Russell's hiring. I'm a great admirer of his work, including his book, The Shift. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46832/baseball-therapy...
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:56
Michael Jordan gambled a bunch in basketball. If let's say Willie Mays had gambled, would he get the same Pete Rose treatment? And like steroids, I'm SURE Pete Rose is not the only one to have gambled (probably some in the HOF). It seems like it will be one of those things, where they induct him once he dies.. Which is ridiculous..
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
As has been written about many times, Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker got mixed up in a gambling scandal in 1926 (https://www.espn.com/classic/s/2001/0730/1233060.html) but managed to extricate themselves, in part because gambling was still present within the sport.

As for Mays, his treatment thereafter would have depended upon whether or not he showed contrition. As it was, there WAS a period in the 1980s that both he and Mickey Mantle were banned because they had accepted jobs as greeters at an Atlantic City casino. That was one of many dumb decisions by commissioner Bowie Kuhn, but it does show a willingness to err on the side of caution even with regards to superstars, so I think he would have been majorly hosed had he been caught actually gambling. https://www.nytimes.com/1985/03/19/sports/mays-mantle-reinstated-by-ba...
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