JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/19

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Xolo

1:02

Will Fangraphs ever add playoff stats? Especially now that postseason play helped get Mo into the Hall, it'd be interesting to get some perspective on how players have done.

Jay Jaffe

1:04

It would be a nice thing to have, I agree. I know we've discussed it and I can't remember the obstacles, but I'll add it to the wish list of things that I'd like to see on FanGraphs, including K+ (indexed strikeout rate), RED (Chris Dial's defensive system, which is part of the Gold Gloves SABR Defensive Index), catcher framing and more.

Steve

1:04

How hypocritical is it going to be when the writers elect reported steroid user David Ortiz in a couple of years?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

As I wrote in my five-year outlook piece earlier this week, it's going to be a very weird thing to see the differential treatment that Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez receive in their first year on the ballot (2022), which will also be the last year of eligibility for Bonds and Clemens. We can hope that there's enough cognitive dissonance for a substantial bloc of holdouts to rethink their entrenched positions — I think that's what it's going to take to get BB and RC over the hump.

Steve

1:06

At this point - shouldn't some blame for having all these unsigned free agents go to the agents? Were they asleep all last season? Do they think their clients are magically going to get deals in February?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

Definitely some blame. I mentioned Scott Boras' misread of the market in my Greg Holland piece yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/greg-holland-takes-a-pay-cut/). The root cause of this, however, is the players agreeing to a relatively weak set of terms in the latest CBA, with not enough of a rise in the competitive balance tax threshold, and a change in the way revenue is shared (see Craig Edwards' piece here) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-revenue-sharing-money-heads-back-to-the...

James

1:09

With the price presumably falling, Dallas Keuchel returning to Houston is a no-brainer right? Astros need someone to eat innings, and he has proven effective at that for awhile now.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I don't know about a no-brainer, but it definitely makes some sense. I'll have something on the top remaining free agents up at FG tomorrow.

radermecher

1:10

Jay,how far back,can DRC+ be realistically used.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

While I think DRC+ is promising and have great respect for Jonathan Judge, its creator, I'm not sold yet on it, mostly because I don't yet understand how they can use single-year park factors. It's something I need to look at more closely.

Roger

1:14

What is your predicted order of finish for the NL East this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I'm 100% certain the Marlins will be 5th. Ask me about the other four teams once Harper and Machado sign somewhere.

Jeff

1:16

Why does it seem like the owners don’t have to do anything to get fans on their side? Are most fans secretly billionaires?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

The median household income in the US is something like $56K, and most of the people making that money don't belong to labor unions. They see what the players are making for "playing" a "kid's game" while spending much less time thinking about all of the ways in which the owners are getting handouts. It's much easier to think about millionaires with faces and names that are in the news daily than billion-dollar corporations and owners who don't have nearly so high a public profile.

Corry

1:20

Are the Yankees the favorites to win the AL East the way they're currently constituted?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

We have the Red Sox forecast for 97 wins and the Yankees for 96. Any substantial move or injury could alter that pecking order but that's well within the margin for error — right now, this looks like a tossup.

Hobbs

1:21

Do you know when all of the minor league player projections will be completed? We have minor league drafts coming up very soon and these would help greatly.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Ask Dan Szymborski, he's the one doing ZiPS.

Jeff

1:22

What kind of HoF case does CC Sabathia have? His career seems anong the last of a dying breed - the true workhorse ace

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Decent case but not great. He's going to notch his 250th win and 3,000th strikeout — just the third lefty to reach the latter plateau — early this season, which will help. His peak isn't especially high, so he doesn't do great in JAWS. I've written about him a bunch since coming over to FG; see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-reinvention-of-cc-sabathia/ and https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zack-greinkes-climb-towards-cooperstown/

Jeff

1:24

How hypocritical is it that Mejia’s ban got lifted? Is it lifted if he were a true elite who couldn’t just be scooped up with a MiL deal?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

MLB's lifetime bans come with the opportunity to apply for reinstatement, a condition that applies to Mejia as much as it does to all-time great Pete Rose. Only one of those two players was able to convince a commissioner that he had reformed. If he were a better player, he'd probably get a bigger deal upon reinstatement, but the truth is that Mejia is just another reliever.

Sonny Slayhern

1:29

Clint Frazier- Last I saw he was a 55 FV prospect, and the injuries have really taken off his shine. LF seems to be a position ripe for the taking while Stanton DH's in NY. Do you still foresee him as an above average everyday player?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

It was a lost year for Frazier due to his concussion and post-concussion problems. With that kind of injury, there's always a concern about its longer-term impact (see Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer), and I don't think we'll really know what kind of lingering effects there are for him. With Gardner re-signing and Ellbury somehow still on the roster in addition to Hicks, Judge and Stanton, there's no immediate room for Frazier but it's not unthinkable that sometime this spring or summer he could play his way into the picture, with Garner on the outbound.

Trent

1:33

If the Padres sign Machado, where will their infield rank in, say, two years. Would Hosmer, Machado, Urias, and Tatis surpass the great infields we've seen in Houston, Chicago, and elsewhere recently?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

It's juuuuuust a bit early to start ranking that group as one of the great ones in recent memory given that 1) Hosmer was dreadful last year (95 wRC+, -0.1 WAR); 2) two of the four guys you mention don't have substantial MLB experience; and 3) then there's the issue of convincing Manny to sign with the Padres.

Other than that, yeah, by all means, put them in the class of the Astros and Cubs!

kevinthecomic

1:36

Rotoworld saying the Rockies are talking to CarGo about rejoining the team. That just means they'll play him, doesn't it?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

Jesus, Felipe, and Matty Alou, it never ends. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-cant-the-rockies-put-together-an-outfi...

Turtle Jetpack

1:37

Are Ichiro's accomplishments strictly in MLB Hall-worthy? Part of what makes him so amazing is the fact he came over after having a lot of success in Japan, right? He was great for the first 6-7 years with Seattle, but it wasn't a long peak.

Jay Jaffe

1:40

He exceeds the peak standard among RF (43.7 to 42.1), outranks Vlad, Winfield, and like a dozen other RFs in JAWS), has over 3,000 hits, 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, MVP, ROY, a 234 Hall of Fame Monitor score (where 100 is a likely HOFer and 130 a lock)... yeah, I think he's got this.

Ben

1:40

In your opinion, how many years should players remain on the HOF ballot? Is ten the right number?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

I'm OK with the 10-year limit but think the Hall should have changed the slot limit from 10 to at least 12 as a concession for cutting from 15 years to 10. It was grossly unfair to wave off five years of candidates' eligibility in mid-term, and we're lucky that Raines, Martinez and Mussina survived that and were elected.

Turtle Jetpack

1:43

Pujols was a Hall of Famer after his Cardinal career ended, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:43

Basically, yeah.

Environment

1:43

What changes might the yankees' environment hire make for a team? Would we as fans notice?

Jay Jaffe

1:47

If you go to games at Yankee Stadium, I imagine you'd notice some things. More thoughtful ways of packaging food and handling waste mainly, but I bet a lot of it is stuff you'll never notice. Here's an interesting look; apparently the Yankees have already been working hard to keep stadium waste out of landfills, which i guess explains why Jacoby Ellsbury is still on the roster:

https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-hire-environmental-science-advisor/c-...

TKDC

1:47

2022 will be Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens last years on the ballot, and Ortiz and Arod's first. Why not just put them all in that one year and anyone who wants to ignore it can feel free to ignore it?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

I'd make that trade in a New York minute. I doubt Jeff Idelson would.

Jeff

1:48

If Cano were the exact same player - same age, same career, same amazing hitter - but cost less how much more praise would the owners’ serfs be laying on the Mets for landing him? Not eniugh

Jay Jaffe

1:50

He already costs less for the Mets because the Mariners included $20 million of his remaining $120 million. He's still 36 and likely to decline significantly over the course of those next five years; that aspect of the move was fine as a win-now thing but less so as a long-term play.

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