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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2026! I'll get this going momentarily (having a chat with a reporter about Hall of Fame stuff)
12:04
OK, I'm back! Happy New Year to you all.
Hope you had good holiday breaks. If you missed it, I published my Hall of Fame ballot explainer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot
12:05
and yesterday began the One-and-Done portion of the ballot with a profile of Hunter Pence https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-hunt...
12:06
I did include a couple of one-and-dones in the pre-holiday coverage, namely Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnación, but I gave their careers longer treatments. Likewise for the next profile, Shin-Soo Choo.
anyway, on with the questions!
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:06
What are your initial takeaways from all of the new Hall of Fame voters for this cycle?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Two things, interrelated:

1) I'm very surprised at the strength of support for the starting pitchers. On the Tracker, Félix Hernández is at 58.7%, Andy Pettitte at 56.5%, Cole Hamels 32.6%, and Mark Buehrle 23.2%
12:09
2) the extent to which the first-time voters, many of them from MLB.com, have supportd the above (26 of 30 for Félix, 21 of 30 for Pettitte, 16 of 30 for Hamels, 12 of 30 for Buehrle)
12:10
not to mention the newcomers going 30 for 30 on Beltrán and 27 for 30 for Andruw
The pitching discussion has been reshaped already and it's going to be very interesting where this leads, even if some of that support is soft thanks to this very thin ballot
James
12:10
Saw a tweet advocating for Vizquel over Andruw Jones for Hall of Fame on the basis of batting average, hits, and fielding percentage. In your estimation, how many actual HoF voters would still agree with that methodology.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
A minority. Jones had nearly 4x the support Vizquel did in the final results last year, and that's with both being connected to domestic violence incidents. Vizquel has the additional sexual harassment allegation, which occurred in a baseball context, but I sstill think it's clear that the old stats don't carry as much weight anymore with voters
sodo mojo
12:12
Given his leap this year is it a given that Felix gets into the hall while he is still eligible or given his lack of WAR and counting stats is there still doubt?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I do think a lot of this support is rather soft (admittedly, mine is) so I don't take it as a given but this probably guarantees a 10-year ballot run and as we see, the times they are a-changin'
BenjaminJ
12:13
Which HOF candidate has WAR helped the most since you started writing on the Hall of Fame? Which candidate has been hurt the most by WAR? If you could not use WAR as a guide, how would you try to re-create your JAWS system?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
I think you can point to a lot of the slow-starting candidates that I'd characterize as "my guys" who eventually got into the Hall as the ones most helped: Raines, Edgar, Rolen, Helton, Wagner
12:17
As for most hurt, that's tougher. Some of the committee candidates who don't fare well via WAR were getting lousy support from the writers even before people were widely aware of the metric (think Mattingly, Murphy, and the now-elected Fred McGriff and Dave Parker). Jack Morris was probably hurt by it but he's in, likewise Jeff Kent.
Abreu's Toughest Soldier
12:17
Hi Jay! Thanks as always for your terrific HOF season coverage. Felix's meteoric rise seems to be the top tracker takeaway at the moment, but it looks like Andy Pettitte and Bobby Abreu, among others, are on pace for decent gains as well. They're running out of time, though -- which middle of the ballot type guys do you think could make a serious run for 75% before their ten years expires?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
The Tracker guys pointed out that Abreu was ahead of Larry Walker's year-7 pace but Walker needed an incredible close to his candidacy and I don't think Abreuis as strong a candidate (no batting titles or MVP, for example). Pettitte still does have the HGH baggage that costs him some support. Utley (39.8% last year, 66.7% in the Tracker) is already in the zone where election is more likely than not. I think there's a real drop-off from him to the odds of eventual election for the rest
12:22
because Manny and A-Rod aren't getting in
12:23
and Rollins (18% last year, 26.8%) is still languishing
OK, time for some non-HOF q's
charles ranson
12:23
why does alex bregman think hes going to get the contract he didnt get last year, this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
For one thing, he doesn't have the drag of draft pick compensation this time. Also, he showed he could adapt to a new team, on and off the field
Guest
12:25
What do you expect from Cam Schlittler this year?  If he stays healthy, is he a legit #2?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
From what we've seen, he looks like he maybe could be a 2 but more likely a 3 (his FIP and xERA were well behind his ERA). I imagine the Yankees will try not to push him too hard given the risks that come with such high velo. I'd expect 150-160ish innings out of him
Guest
12:29
Which of Atlanta's Spencers do you think will do better next year?  And are there any pitching Spencers on the horizon that the Braves can corner the market with.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Nothing against Schwellenbach but I hope it's Strider because pre-surgery he was so damn fun. The stuff and command were both way down, though. Maybe it was pretty typical post-injury stuff (he had internal brace surgery, not full TJ) and maybe with a full offseason to focus on his form instead of rehab he'll be back to where he was
12:32
Maybe they can trade for Spencer Arrighetti?
Rendon
12:32
Given the Angels aren't projected to be competitive this year, would they have been better off baseball-wise eating the rest of the Anthony Rendon contract this year, or does spreading the money out give them more room to spend on guys who will help them in future seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Tax-wise I think it's probably to everybody's advantage to spread it out, whether or not the Angels do throw the savings into 2026 payroll, and maybe they can use that money to ... oh, who am I kidding they're not gonna do anything constructive with it.
Mr. Burrito
12:34
I’m not saying they should do this, but could a package of Sheehan and, say, Freeland, pry Duran out of Boston? I can’t take more Teo in RF and getting Duran after a semi-down season could be a coup.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I can't see Joe Sheehan ever going to Boston... oh, wait you're talking about Emmet Sheehan. Feels like a lot to give him and Freeland up for a guy who had a pretty meh age-28 season.
Guest
12:37
Juan Soto is somehow only going into his age 27 season and already has 42 bWAR/fWAR. How much more (besides playing at least 2 more years) does he need to do to feel like a HOF lock?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Well, he's already part of the 40-WAR 7-year peak club (40.4) so I'd say he feels pretty close to a lock to me, but maybe once he gets to 50 WAR overall it will be that much more clear
Justin
12:38
Hi Jay! What are the odds that the HOF asks you to be part of an era committee sometime? On the one hand you are the perfect person for that, but on the other you do not shy away from critiquing aspects of the HOF that need critiquing. Seems like that could be an interesting experience if it were to come your way.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I don't expect to be asked anytime soon because yes, I am vocal in my critiques of the Hall. I do have good working relationships with some key point people there, and I'm grateful for that, but I'm also on record about most of the candidates already — and since that's an area for which I've criticized the Hall in assembling the committees, I'd have to think long and hard about whether I could do that.
12:46
If it ever happens for me, I expect it to be further down the road. It would be very cool to do someday, but I'm plenty happy that I get to cover the Hall with as much candor and detail as I do, and if being a committee member compromises that, I don't think that would be a positive
Paul Dewgong
12:46
Do you think Jim Edmonds every gets another serious look? I still can't believe he was 1 and done and is similar if not better than Andruw Jones IMO
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