JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 1/6/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 1/6/26

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Jay Jaffe

12:47

I think the openings created by the new rule and the fact that Delgado, a one-and-done, got a look on the 2026 one both bode well for him getting on a ballot sooner or later. Getting elected... I think that's still a longshot.

2131, 1312

12:47

Are there any guys coming onto the ballot in the next few years who you think have their prospects changed the most by what we've seen of this year's voting?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I like Chris Sale's odds even more now.

12:49

and still think Gerrit Cole has a pretty good shot if he can get back to pitching at an above-average cliip

TameImp

12:49

We always take about the obvious HOF misses like Grich and Whitaker that we know more about with modern stats, but how did Ken Boyer slip through the cracks? 11x all star, MVP, multiple gold gloves on a WS winning team?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

yeah it's really strange. He's got a very Rolen-esque career plus the MVP, and dying young (age 51, 1982) didn't seem to drive the usual boost in voting fortunes, for as morbid a thought as that is.

Pierre

12:51

I know you indicated Pedroia and Wright won't be getting your vote. But is there any meaningful distinction between the two? It's been surprising how many voters have picked one but not the other. Also, I know this isn't really relevant, but is the difference between Puckett and these guys the indelible image of the '91 World Series and the sense Kirby was just a fun guy?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

There's a bit of daylight between Pedroia and Wright, IMO, in that the former was an MVP and ROY with two championships, but yes I'd think most voters inclined for one would see the other as similar enough to include. And while I didn't vote for either of them this year, I'm not saying I never would; the Era Committee electing someone like Mattingly or Murphy might make me think harder about supporting this pair.

12:56

As for Puckett, he was a centerpiece on two underdogs who won (don't forget 1987, that was a major upset with an 85-win team beating a 95-win one) and he was great in that series as well. Plus yes, the "good guy" image (which proved to be concealing some truly awful stuff)

Pumpsie

12:56

Are the big markets staying quiet in FA to avoid the perceptions that lead to salary cap discussions? Or will the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, et al return to previous spending levels by signing Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger, et al?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

I suspect once Tucker signs, some other dominoes will fall, and that the Yankees and Mets will both come away with somebody big. Less sure about the Dodgers given their payroll; a trade may be more likely than another 9-figure free agent.

Strat o Matic Fanatic

12:57

Jaffe - did you catch the article on PhamGraphs? Does Tommy Pham make some valid points?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

yeah, it was good for a giggle. I think Craig Goldstein dug into this enough on Bluesky to show that via DRC+ (which adjusts for everything), Pham didn't face pitching that was so much harder that it demands reevaluation. See https://bsky.app/profile/cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com/post/3mbpf...

1:00

One thing to remember is that perception isn't performance. I wonder about Pham facing some pitchers who may have been, say, great in 2023-24 but were ordinary last year? Thinking of Spencer Strider, for one that we've already mentioned.

Gary

1:00

Change my mind: for the HOF, Felix Hernandez = Dale Murphy. Both have the aura and high (but not extraordinary) peaks, but with little value outside of that.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

There's something to that, but also something broader with regards to the way young pitching is handled and the injury risks young pitchers face

so I don't totally buy the comparison enough to try to convince anyone here with my limited time.

Mr. Burrito

1:02

Should shin-soo choo or maybe Chan ho Park get HOF lovr in the way Fernando might, as cultural ambassadors who happened to be great players? I don’t think Chan Ho was that good, necessarily, but he kinda broke through for the Korean community. And Shin-soo was a very strong player imo…

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I have great affection and respect for Choo and Park (recall that I did raise a stink about the latter not being on the 2016 ballot, so I'm esp. glad that the former is on this year) and have developed quite an affection for the cross-pollination with the KBO thanks to 2020, but Fernando's impact was much greater due to the demographics and geography of Los Angeles and the US — and that still didn't move the needle enough to get him anywhere with Era Committee voters this time around. In fact, it put him in a bigger hole than he'd been in!

Alex

1:06

Hi Jay, I know JAWS is based on B-Ref WAR, but I’m curious to what extent you at least peek at FanGraphs and other systems. For a candidate like Pettitte you see as borderline but who looks strong by FanGraphs WAR, I imagine it could make a difference, even just as sort of a tiebreaker. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

1:08

My evaluations of catchers is now fWAR based because bWAR doesn't incorporate framing (even though there's a version of DRS that includes it). But I'm not a big fan of using fWAR for pitchers because we know that the naive model of defense not mattering over large sample sizes doesn't hold up well — especially now that we have quality of contact stats that help us understand the stuff better.

War2D2

1:08

Happy new year Jay! Hope 2026 is great for you and yours! I got into an “argument” with a friend comparing the Hall cases of Hamels and Pettitte (for whatever reason we both agreed that King Felix had the “it factor” even though all his counting stats paled in comparison and would both vote for him, and Buehrle was dismissed out of hand for having whatever the opposite of “it” is). For me Hamels is the only one I give a second look to. He and Pettitte basically have the same stats, but it took Pettitte like 600 more IP (and an indeterminate amount of HGH) to get there. My friend pointed to the discrepancy between their respective fWAR numbers. I countered (with an obvious and shameful appeal to authority) that you used bWAR. He was unmoved. Would you mind restating why you have a preference for bWAR when it comes to historical pitching data? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

1:10

This is in the same vein. bWAR does adjust for defense and quality of opposition, which fWAR does not. Those adjustments may be a bit crude but I think they're worth taking into account, and likewise the variance in sequencing and quality of contact that results in different run prevention abilities. I've found that fWAR kinda breaks down in low-K, low-HR environments (think Deadball Era) too

War2D2

1:10

Cubs have been very disappointing this offseason. They did a nice job rebuilding the bullpen on the margins, I think, but there’s little to no expectation they bring back Tucker, and they’re still an arm short. Imai went for half what people were predicting and they still wouldn’t spend to bring him in. What, if anything, is your expectation for the rest of their offseason?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I wish I had a better read on them but i do expect them to do ... something, especially for the rotation. Landing either Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez would help but they really need a true ace and there isn't one on the board.

Juan P.

1:13

Does the showing for the SPs (and now seemingly likelihood of Felix's induction) make it inevitable that Johan gets on the next Modern Era ballot? I know that that process is opaque, but I refuse to believe anyone outside the Pacific Northwest thinks Felix is more deserving than Johan is.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

there is nothing inevitable, Era Committee-wise, about a candidate who goes one-and-done on the BBWAA ballot no matter how much chatter there is among Hallwatchers.

1:17

I think the odds that Santana is on the 2029 ballot are better than 50%, but I wouldn't call them a lock by any means. Even if Hernández and Hamels were to get elected before the 2029 Era Committee ballot is drawn up (don't bet on it), we're still talking about a pitcher with 20-something fewer wins and 600- or 700 fewer innings than those two. The Historical Overview Committee that makes up the Era ballots is as capable of breaking hearts as the Era Committees themselves.

RetireNutting

1:19

Should Pirates fans just lower their expectations at this point after getting overexcited about the GM doing _anything at all_ and just accept Triolo will be the 3B?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Pirates fans should have low expectations to begin with but adding Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn is already a couple steps in the right direction, and while I wouldn't expect them to land Bregman or Eugenio Suárez, their signings could shake somebody loose for a trade. Maybe

Guest

1:20

Does it seem like Strider may be like Syndergaard, to a lesser extent-- unable to recapture what he had pre-TJS? Do you have a rough idea of what percentage of pitchers aren't able to fully recover from the surgery?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Strider seems far more intelligent when it comes to understanding biomechanics and physical limitations than the guy who proved himself to be Nuke LaLoosh II (remember skipping the MRI and then tearing his lat in 2017?)

1:23

I don't have any idea of the % of guys who don't get it back because that's a tough thing to define and a massive study to perform.

1:24

if anyone's doing it, they're working for a team or at least not sharing that info publicly

MattStats5

1:24

Jay, no question. Just dropped in to say I love your work, especially your Hall of Fame coverage. One of the main reasons I subscribe to Fangraphs.

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Thank you for the kind words!

Williams R

1:25

Duran had a "meh" 4-WAR 2025 season? I'm not even a Red Sox fan and I just do not understand some of the discourse around Duran... I think he's way better than people give him credit for and I've been crossing my fingers the Mets trade for him

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Duran had a huge July and was pretty ordinary the rest of the time.

1:27

and he did that as a more or less league-average LF rather than a plus CF, which he was in 2024.

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