JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/23

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/23

Jay Jaffe

2:03

Good afternoon, folks, and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2024 and my first one in... a little while. Between my move and Hall of Fame season it's been tough to carve out time for these, so my apologies. On that subject, today I've got a piece celebrating the 20th anniversary of the introduction of JAWS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chewing-on-jaws-at-20/. Hopefully tomorrow I'll have my profile of José Bautista to add to the one-and-done roster. I did Matt Holliday on Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-matt...

Guest

2:03

I just learned from your JAWS article that you were a designer for children’s books! Any titles you’re particularly proud of from that phase? Who’s in your board book HOF?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

I'm most proud of serving as the creative director for the 2002, 2003, and 2004 editions of the World Almanac for Kids. I got to design the covers and oversaw the whole project on the design side. https://www.ebay.com/itm/302336851464?chn=ps&_trkparms=ispr%3D1&amdata...

2:05

In 2002 I got to put Venus Williams on the cover, while in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, but keep in mind these were decided a year in advance).

I also got to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

2:06

and some cool science textbooks and some dreadful mathbooks.

Kyle DB

2:06

HNY! Do u think there’s any chance the Yanks sign Juan Soto to an extension? If not, do u think Soto re-signs with the Yanks in the 2024 off-season?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

with free agency looming after this season, I doubt Soto is going to agree to an extension. I'd be somewhat surprised if the Yankees end up signing him as a free agent given Hal Steinbrenner's skittishness lately, but I wouldn't rule it out.

Phil

2:07

Can you help me understand the sudden handwringing about the Dodgers and deferred payments? Didn't Scherzer have like 50% of his contract deferred back when he signed with Washington in 2015? Is this just an anti-Dodger thing? Did the amount of deferrals in Ohtani's contract just wake everyone up to it being a thing teams do?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

It's partly an anti-Dodgers thing, as they're the Big Bad Spenders shaming your favorite team's lack of activity, and partially a reaction to the extremes of the Ohtani contract, which TBH should probably be reported at a valuation closer to the way it counts for CBT purposes, which is $46.07 million per year.

2:10

What kind of value does Brett Baty have? Can't really see him as the centerpiece for a Luzardo, starting to feel reminiscent a bit of Andujar years ago in terms of trade value (without the ~4 win season at 23)

Jay Jaffe

2:12

As a 55 FV prospect who scuffled in his rookie season, he's still got significant value and may yet live up to his above-average regular billing, but you're right, he's not going to be a centerpiece in a Luzardo deal.

Jeff Bann

2:12

Do u think division realignment is coming within the next 5 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

yes, probably as part of the expansion to 32 teams.

Morlock Jimenez

2:12

Do you think it's time for bref to update its Black Ink score, maybe open it up to league-leading performances in other categories?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Makes sense.

Grandpa Cole

2:13

We just had a lockout in 2022….are we headed for another in 2026? Owners seem ready to fight like they did in 1994

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Quite possibly, but why worry about it? Nothing you or I can do other than not buy whatever bullshit the owners and Manfred are shoveling

v2micca

2:14

I know that a lot of individuals far smarter than I have stated that if the Braves can get 100 quality innings from Sale in the regular season and an effective few starts in the post season, that they essentially hit the jackpot on this trade. But, am I just hopelessly biased for my team, or is there a possible world where Sale produces at season that finishes in the top 7 in NL Cy Young voting? His stuff is still about as good as ever.

Jay Jaffe

2:18

Sale had a 106 Stuff+ score and a 3.80 FIP in 102.2 innings. Maybe there's a sliver of a chance he delivers a sub-3.00 ERA and FIP but I'd guess the innings footprint will be small enough that he won't get Cy Young votes. AL relievers Bautista and Chris Martin (!?) aside, nobody who didn't qualify for the ERA title received a CY vote last year

SteveO

2:18

If you could unilaterally add one player not currently on the ballot into Hall, who would it be?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

Dick Allen

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:18

Poor showing for Utley. Do you think the writers will vote him in by year 10?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

Utley's been named on 45.2% of all ballots in the Tracker and even if that tails off a bit, that's a very solid start. In case you haven't been paying attention, we've seen some massive comebacks from much lower debut shares. From today's piece:

2:22

What's more, setting aside Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling for obvious reasons, the highest share of any player to have never gained entry is just 43.1% from Roger Maris. In last winter's Tracker poll, I guessed Utley would debut with 17%, so I'm pretty stoked he'll likely double that, at least.

Tyler

2:23

Is it weird that I'm thinking about how you will explain Jose Ramirez's down year in 2019 and how his agent just told him to start pulling the ball and it worked in ~15 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

I think it's very likely we'll be talking about Ramirez in a Hall context around that time. He's at 45.5/40.2/42.9 in JAWS — that 40 peak score suggests about a 75% likelihood he'll wind up in the Hall someday — and his 3.1 WAR from 2019 is his seventh-best season, so if he betters that he's going to get significant traction.

Monique - NY

2:26

In your opinion, do you think MLB is headed in a good direction? For a while people were saying the game is dying…is there any truth to that?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

i tend not to get too wrapped up in questions like these but the game is on pretty good footing financially, and the 2023 rules changes did improve the on-field product a bit. The RSN situation could shake things up but I think the league is strong enough and creative enough to weather some of the problems. I'm no expert in that area — check out the stuff from FG alum Travis Sawchik at The Score.

Big Time in '29

2:31

So, a lot of hypothetical work that may or may not pan out this year, BUT assuming that unsigned players remain unsigned/choose to retire/etc., the 2029 Hall of Fame Ballot could potentially sport Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto, and Zack Greinke (plus Wainwright, who might stick around a la Buerhle, and then Strasburg, Adam Jones, Lorenzo Cain, etc. That's a lot of lifting there, but as it stands, that's a whole lot of Player all at once.

Where does that first year list of hypothetical entrants (I see at least two players in there signing with teams later on this offseason) rank all time among first year groups of players on the ballot?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

Nothing will top the ballot class of 2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton. If not for PEDs and, uh, other stuff we could be looking at 7 HOFers from that group.

2:33

But yes, that 2029 ballot could be something if none of those guys plays again, though I believe Cabrera is the only one who's really done.

Anon21

2:33

Still writing "2023" on all your chat titles, Jay?

Jay Jaffe

2:33

oh FFS

I'll change that after the chat.

Joaquim

2:35

Is there a chance that the dodgers flip Busch and/or Vargas for controllable, near MLB ready prospects at positions of greater medium-term need? (SS and OF come to mind). I.e. flip them for similar type of player, perhaps with a weaker bat profile but not position-blocked for years to come?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

Both of those players are probably down in value a bit after 2023 but yeah, I think that's possible.

Phil

2:36

Dipoto famously said that he shoots to assemble a roster that wins around 54% of its games. The offseason is still young(ish), but would you say he's on pace for that this year? Seems to me their many moves are full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Jay Jaffe

2:39

It seems he's far more concerned about trimming payroll than shoring up last year's near-miss squad. The moves aren't necessarily bad ones, but I don't see anything bold that's going to definitely improve the team

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