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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/1/21
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Robert McGowan
3:25
Why do the Fangraphs projections like the Yankees' World Series chances above the Rays when the Yankees haven't clinched a playoff spot and have to survive a one game Wild Card and have also been crushed by the Rays this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
Good question. I don't know the answer to that one.
Josh
3:25
Re MVP and Cy Young from same non-playoff team: That 2011 Dodgers team with peak Matt Kemp and Kershaw was very close. I still maintain Kemp should have beaten Braun for MVP (which looks worse for Braun in hindsight). Both those guys put up close to 10 WAR seasons and the Dodgers went 82-80
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Yup, i think it was an LA Times article about that possibility which did my homework for me about historical precedents
Plooto
3:26
Do you see Carlos Rodón continuing his darn good performance from this season and earning a long-term deal with some team, White Sox or not?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
Health is the big wild card with Rodon, as he's thrown more innings this year (132.2) than any season since 2016, and it's still not all that many. If he can maintain the big velocity boost  and stay healthy? Yes, he can continue at some high level. But those are big ifs
Guest
3:28
How do you feel about Austin Hays going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
guys with .300ish OBPs and 5% walk rates need a whole lot to go right or their production crashes through the floor.
Nate
3:29
With Voit out, and DJ banged up, the Yankees bench looks aweFully thin. His much of a concern is this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
It's a concern for sure. Though it won't be if they lose the Wild Card game
log onto FanGraphs dot com for more trenchant analysis like that LOL
3:32
the Yankees have dealt with injuries all season long. Right now the good news is that Stanton and Judge are healthy and things are trending right with Loaisiga and Severino improving that bullpen. their realigned infield seems to be faring better but the big question for them isn't LeMahieu, it's Cole.
Sean
3:32
Jose Ramirez is awesome, but he doesn't get much said about him.  Well, he has been written about here for his high trade value.  Seems underrated to me.  He seems to be on HOF track.  What say you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Ramirez has since added 1.4 WAR to what was there just 4 weeks ago (wow!) and now has three seasons of 6.6 bWAR or better — a good start as far as HOF tracks go
Regarding the World Series Odds question above:
(from Sean Dolinar)
"The quick answer is the projections don't like the Rays. I feel like this happens often when a poorly projected team wins a division.The Yankees would have like ~15% WS chance similar to the Astros if they won the division. So it's a little bit of an incomplete analysis/comparison."
Dansby SwanSong
3:36
Is there any analysis that shows pitchers, particularly starters, are more fatigued than usual at this time of year, because of the shortened season last year?  Lots of noise about both Cole and Ray pitching poorly in their last starts with so much on the line.  Just randomness?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
i haven't done a study on it. I know that early season injury rates were higher but I haven't seen any velocity studies
3:37
ok folks, that's all I've got time for this week. Thanks so much for stopping by. Chat status for next week is probably touch and go based upon the wall-to-wall baseball we'll be getting with all four series up and running. Until then, stay safe and root for this weekend to produce some extra baseball!
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