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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/17/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
The problem with your theory is that Matt Arnold is now the Brewers' president of baseball operations so I don't see a spot for Ng there. The only POBO opening, I think, is the Red Sox unless the White Sox decide to bring in somebody above Chris Getz — which might be kind of weird given that they just promoted him, but maybe that's why their search didn't seem all that extensive.
Vermonty
2:53
If a GM's big moves backfire, shouldn't they lose their job? I'm thinking Cashman here, and I've always defended him , but is now the time for a change?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
The problem is that you're assuming that only the biggest and most publicly visible bets — this signing, that trade — matter, when there's a whole lot more that goes into the job. Which isn't necessarily to defend Cashman, who like the rest of us is watching a lot of ex-Yankees have fine postseasons, but it's just not as simple as "they lost this trade, off with his head."
2:57
Personally I think the Yankees should kick Cashman upstairs and bring in a new GM, and Ng would seem to be well-suited for that possibility.
marginal utility player
2:57
thoughts on "playoff performers" in general? Is it sample size? confirmation bias? or are some players just better in the postseason?

The player who is probably most known for being a great postseason performer recently is David Ortiz, whose postseason numbers are a seams' width away from his regular season statistics. The whole notion of some players being special in postseason just seems like an overrated talking point to me
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
A lot of it is sample size but I do think some players are particularly well-wired for the postseason, better able to focus and not let the moment overtake them in ways that increases the possibility of success. That said, David Ortiz went 2-for-22 in the 2013 ALCS and had a few other dud series. Harper hit just .200/.360/.400 in last year's World Series. Mariano Rivera gave up the 2001 walk-off hit to Luis Gonzalez in the World Series and the decisive homer to Sandy Alomar Jr. in the 1997 ALDS. No player is so clutch that they're forever infallible in the playoffs.
12 to 6
3:02
Kershaw/[Giolito]/Buehler/Miller/Pepiot/Sheehan/Grove/Ferguson/Stone/[May]/[Gonzo].

Assuming CK comes back, and even without a topline SP signing (like Giolito, who would be a great fit) am I just silly for being cautiously optimistic. The playoffs were a disaster but the Dodgers *did* successfully break in about 2/5 of a pitching staff this year....
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
They have a lot of young talent, but the problem — as we've already seen — is that young pitchers get hurt, don't develop evenly, and face workload constraints. They'll need to find some pitchers to take up significant innings, whether that's Giolito or Lynn (on whom they have an option) or somebody else. But particularly with Urias gone, they do need another frontliner, which is why it makes sense for them to go after Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Guest
3:04
Is Ng a hot enough commodity at this point to make someone like the Padres or Angels drop Preller or Minasian and make a run?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
I doubt either of those teams will fire a sitting exec to hire her but it's worth noting that Preller is POBO in San Diego, while Minasian is just the GM in Anaheim, with no POBO above him.
The Oriole Bird
3:06
As an O's fan, this team came so far out from left field this year to win 101 games, that I say who cares that they got swept by the Rangers.  Let's enjoy the next 3-4 years!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
There's more talent on the way starting with Jackson Holliday, so it's a good time to be an O's fan. Hopefully they can take the success and hard lessons from this season and build upon them.
KC Pain
3:07
Odds Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer retire this year?  All seem to be in spots where playoffs are attainable next year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Kershaw is a free agent and may well decide he's had enough. Verlander and Shcherzer are both guaranteed $43.3 million next year, on the other hand, so I'd say there's a sub-zero chance either retires regardless of what happens this October.
Deck
3:09
Regarding blaming the GM -- it seems to me, that what isn't known publicly is how much the GM acts on his own initiative and how much the GM acts simply as an agent for the owner.  It seems harsh to fire a guy because he did what you told him to do.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Yes, very good points. The GM or even the POBO doesn't set the budget, doesn't unilaterally make the big signing, etc.
Benny
3:11
Last year we had 4 extra inning postseason games. There haven't been any yet this year. And we haven't had any winner-take-all games either. Any idea when the last year we had a postseason with no extra innings or winner take all games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Via Stathead, it looks like the last time we didn't have a postseason extra inning game was 2006, with 2002 the only other Wild Card-era season without one. It looks like we last lacked what Stathead calls a "sudden death" game was in 2009, with 1998 the only other Wild-Card era season without one.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:14
Do you think 2028 Olympic baseball will compete with 2029 WBC for players/interest/etc? What are the odds professionals actually are allowed to compete in the Olympics?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Doubt they'll be competing against each other because I don't see MLB stopping its season to allow active major leaguers to play. Nor should it because **** the Olympics.
Ben
3:17
Thinking back to Mike Trout being drafted at 25th, how much of that was he being a kid from NJ versus people just missed it with him?  I know drafts are tricky, but it seems like he was good in pro ball from the word Go!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I think being from a cold-weather state was a factor. Just googled and found this Keith Law piece from 2019 that i'm going to read later https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26864123/draft-heist-century-how-m...
James
3:18
Where would you put the odds the Yordan breaks the all-time playoff home run record eventually? 12 homers at age 26 is formidable.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
Well, he's not even halfway to Manny Ramirez's record of 29, and the thing I'd worry about with him is injuries; he's already had one major knee injury, has averaged just 131 games over the past three seasons, and is mainly a DH. Don't get me wrong, I expect him to keep accumulating postseason homers, but even if he's averaging over 4 postseason homers a year while the Astros play three rounds, he's got to go through another four seasons like that — and it seems unlikely the Astros will be that consistently competitive for that long.
Lorenzo
3:25
Will Kodai Senga get a higher overall score in ROY voting or CY Young voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I think he'll probably be 2nd in the NL Rookie of the Year voting to Corbin Carroll, but I figure at least Snell, Strider,  and Steele will finish ahead of him in the Cy Young voting, possibly with the two Zac(k)s ahead of him too. Still, a very nice season
12 to 6
3:27
oh, without question la needs two arms that can soak up 180-200 innings, which is why i'd think lynn coming back and another mid-range starter is likely (and why urias going out, and justifiably, was a depth charge for them - he was average to solid this year on the mound, but he was basically a guarantee to take the ball every five days). i'd love yamamoto but they still need another innings soaker.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
agreed
Mateo
3:28
can you share more about your particular distaste for the Olympics, Jay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
the IOC is inherently corrupt in its dealings, with the host city the one that can bribe the most officials. They've already shown a disdain for baseball by not having it be a regular medal sport (the 2021 Olympics was the first time since 2008 and it won't be there in 2024).
mac
3:31
what makes the yankees think they're so special that they don't have to change personnel when things have gone horribly awry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
money. profit. green.
3:32
They're a money-making machine and perhaps too complacent about the value of the brand as opposed to the need to wield their financial clout in order to fortify their roster.
Benny
3:33
You just mentioned Senga, Snell, Strider, Steele, Gallen, and Wheeler in the Cy Young mix. I know Webb didn't have the shiniest W-L record or ERA, but just averaging bWAR and fWAR together, he comes out ahead of all 6 of the others. I'm sure Snell will win, but do you think Webb will get any consideration from the voters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
I don't think he'll be shut out, and don't wish to denigrate his season at all — it was a damn good one — but an 11-13 record with fewer than 200 strikeouts isn't going to help him stand out in the current crowd.
Bernardo
3:36
In the case of a Phillies-Rangers World Series, who do you think matches up better? Seems like a toss up to me
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I'd have to think about that one but it would certainly be a lot of fun to see that matchup!
KC Pain
3:37
Any chance they up the pickoff from 2....to at least 3?  I dont want 10 of them but felt that 2 is too few.  Otherwise loved the new rules.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Maybe eventually but i'm skeptical we'll see a change for next year.
mac
3:37
what is the substantive difference between a durable-but-unexceptional starting pitcher racking up a high win total because he played with a great offense his whole career and brian cashman being a "hall of fame gm" because he worked with the highest budget and most resources in the league every year?
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