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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/18/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Hey hey, folks. Welcome to another edition of my October chat. Forgive me for being a bit late and a bit frazzled. The impact of this crazy-ass postseason on the Jaffe-Span household — late nights and an accommodating but not entirely unforgiving 2-year-old — is taking its toll. We'll see if I can give you a few good innings, though.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:03
Two teams are a win away from the World Series. Which is more likely to choke?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I don't think you can throw a choke label on a team up 3-2 losing the final two games on the road in the same way that you could with regards to a team up 3-1 with the cushion of going home even if they lose Game 5.

But I'm not really a fan of the term "choke" in general. These are four excellent teams with strengths and weaknesses and very skilled players who nonetheless have their vulnerabilities. The routes they take may confuse us but I've seen enough baseball that no outcome from among the remaining series would surprise me.
stever20
12:07
why is Kershaw so hot and cold in the playoffs these last 3 years?  When he's great like yesterday he's great (1.13 ERA last 3 years).  When he's bad, he's awful(7.63 ERA last 3 years).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Why does anyone have good days and bad days? How the hell does any pitcher survive throwing the ball hard a hundred or so times a night to various locations while avoiding discernable patterns against skilled hitters outfitted with incredible means of decoding those patterns?

Baseball is hard. That's why Kershaw, Price and anybody else in October struggles at times.
Wes
12:09
Bregman or Benintendi over the next 10 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Bregman and it's not close. Demonstrated MVP-caliber play at times, and plays a much more impactful position.
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon
12:10
How crazy is it that the news cycle for the Brewers' "starter" gambit was only a few hours thanks to the Mookie Betts play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
From where I sit, both are still newsworthy, but obviously, the prime time one, with a single play (viewable from multiple angles) is going to capture more eyeballs than the more abstract switcheroo.
Derek
12:11
That game last night was incredible. But holy crap can we please find a way to not let playoff baseball games last 5 hours?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Tell. me. about. it.
jkim
12:13
last nights ALCS game gave me Game 2 flashbacks from last year's WS. Crazy lead changes & bringing in the closer in the 8th.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
the last two postseasons have had all kinds of stuff like this, in particular. We've been very lucky, both as fans, and as media, to have so much to chew on.
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
12:14
If your frazzled, do what the old ball players did and take some greenies. Perk you right up.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
The problem with getting so up is coming down — and it's scary the extent to which players use(d) alcohol to take the edge off the stimulants they "needed" to play. Not that I don't crack a beer or two after filing my piece or reaching a stopping point late at night, but I'm running on nothing stronger than coffee.
Andy
12:16
Jay.  Thank you for taking time to chat.  You're always thorough and thoughtful in your responses.  Inquiring Minds (mine) want to know:  Is Bryant-Harper connection strong enough to make CHC the favorites in the offseason?  Or do you think Harper lands somewhere and pulls Bryant with him in a couple years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Thanks, Andy. I think the Bryant-Harper connection is real enough to make the Cubs major players in the Bryce sweepstakes. Having a buddy who can give it to you straight about the culture inside the clubhouse, when you've only ever known one other in the majors, is a big deal.

That said, I'm not entirely sure how Harper fits on the Cubs' outfield unless you're either trading Schwarber or Heyward, the latter after eating a whole lot of $ since he ain't opting out of doodly squat.
Lilith
12:18
Given his polling results, do you think Rolen eventually gets into the HoF? When?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
We don't have a precedent for a player polling so low on the first ballot (10.2%) and getting in via the writers within a 10-year window. The lowest by any modern (1966 onward) candidate in his first year who was eventually elected by the writers was Duke Snider, 17.0%, and he needed 11 years. It's an uphill haul for Scotty, and he may need the Today's Game Committee or whatever they're calling it 10 years from now.

I'm optimistic that he'll get in eventually, perhaps overly so.
Lou
12:23
Austin Barnes was not good in the regular season but is probably the Dodgers postseason starting catcher now.  Are we better off judging a player by their whole career and projections in the postseason than the WAR from the preceding regular season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
It's always tough to say. Given the feedback available, players are so much more malleable than ever — you can convince a guy based upon statistical and video evidence that he needs to change his swing path or the grip on his pitch and suddenly he's like a whole new player!

I do think that there's a lot we don't know. For one, Barnes' 2018 season is kind of a small sample size (238 PA), and over that amount of time, there's a wide range of performance; on that note, yes, I'd say go on more than one year of data. Beyond that, was there an injury in there? Have the Dodgers spotted matchups they like particularly for him against some pitchers? It's worth a closer look.
Drew
12:27
I believe it was Jeff in a previous chat who mentioned he was thinking of some way fill the Indians holes in the OF and bullpen.  He initially said the Padres would be a good fit (Reyes, Jankowski, Yates).  What about Clevinger for Reyes, Jankowski, Yates, and either Baez, Morejon, or Espinoza?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Indians ain't trading Clevinger.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:28
You know that scene in Office Space where Ron Livingston talks to Deidrich Bader about his coworker saying, "Sounds like someone's got a case of the Mondays" and Bader says, "Hell no...he'd get his ass kicked!" Well, I have a coworker who says, "Happy Friday, Jr.!" on Thursdays and I feel like I need to talk to Bader.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Office Space is the gift that keeps on giving, and Bader's character doubly so. I don't think you need either the actor or the character's permission to give your coworker an appropriate punishment for his comments. I'n not advocating violence — maybe a good prank.
Dave
12:30
What’s the best and/or most realistic way for the Yankees to get out of the Stanton contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
By watching him hit several hundred dingers over the remainder of it. I don't think they're sitting around worrying about it right now.
Mike
12:31
Jay, just for interest's sake can you tell us about a non-baseball related event that meant something to you in the past week?  Even if it's just a life changing sandwich experience.  Cheers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
In the past week? Well, last week I told you about going to see The Scientists, a reunited Australian post-punk band, on the night before, when there was no baseball. On Saturday, I kind of blew off the ALCS opener to go see Mudhoney — one of my all-time favorite bands, and one I've seen a handful of times dating back to 1990 or '91 (twice in one week a few years ago). Happy to report that they still kick ass, not that I had any doubt. There's just something about seeing a live, kick-ass band that scrubs my brain of stress and fatigue in all of the right ways, and I need to remind myself to do that once in awhil. Even if, in this case, the venue (The Warsaw, a Polish club in Williamsburg) had no wifi I could access.
I'
12:36
Given my long-term affinity for the Dodgers, I've pretty much had to use the ALCS as my time to either parent, write or just be, while focusing on the NLCS. Didn't plan for that to be the case but here we are, and on that note, here's my take on the Miley Gambit https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-gambit-versus-the-ace/
The Old Buccaneer
12:37
Am I the only one who thinks Walker Buehler looks like the love child of Kevin Brown and Tim Lincecum on the mound? His set-up, especially, reminds me a ton of Brown. Maybe just a little less ornery.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Not bad. He's just 24 and so lacks Brown's grizzled seen-some-shit look and scowl. He's also got a few inches on Timmy.
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon
12:38
Are Andy Pettitte's Hall of Fame chances the least impacted by his steroids history given his admission and that he was generally well-liked by sports writers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Eh, I dunno. I honestly don't think he's got a strong chance of election given that he's a lesser candidate than Mussina, Schilling and Halladay. And has the Mitchell Report on his resumé, one way or another.
Fans
12:40
How do we stop fans from interfering with important playoff games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Honestly, I think every ballpark should have a bit of a buffer between the fans and the fence. This should have been a priority after Jeffrey Maier as the whole wave of Selig-era stadium building unfolded.
Kristen
12:42
Has Chris Bosio been blackballed after the DET incident?  TEX could use a teacher-style pitching coach and new AGM Rehman is familiar with Bosio successfully developing ex-Ranger prospects like Hendricks, Strop, Edwards, and Grimm in CHIC.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
I'm not inside enough to know whether Bosio is being blackballed but given that the offseason has only just begun, I don't think we can even guess whether that's true. There are a lot of jobs, major and minor league, to be filled.

That said, if I were a GM, I'm not so sure I'd be considering him for a position right now. Has he done anything to earn a shot at redemption? Like, undergone counseling? Done anything publicly but maintain his innocence? If he has, I haven't seen it, not that it's very high on my priority list to look.
Maximum Munchies
12:45
Boston beating the Astros in the ALCS, even as the 1-seed, has got to be considered an upset
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