JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/21/22

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/21/22

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Graa

2:43

Blue Jays a team to watch on Nimmo? They need a lefty bat and they could move Springer to a corner OF spot.

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Seems like a reasonable fit

CatcherOnTheRye

2:46

Jay, most media members agreed the Jays needed a LH bat , and some big bullpen arms at the deadline, maybe a starter. Atkins moves came up way short IMO. Was this the team he thought could win it all or do you think he was capped by Rogers as many have suggested?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

Offhand i'm not sure. it's not like the Jays didn't go out and add to their core in the offseason by signing Gausman, extending Berrios, and trading for Chapman, but you're right that they probably needed to be more aggressive at the deadline than landing Mitch White, Whit Merrifield and Anthony Bass or whatever.

2:50

I do think that payroll could become an issue with so many young players getting more expensive in arbitration, but they are staggered a bit.

darrrrrr

2:50

I'm a bit surprised at Cole. 33 bWAR through age 31 season is on the low side. With 6 years left on his deal can he average 5 war per season?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

We'll see. he didn't gain much ground this year thanks to his late-season slump, but I do think that with his stuff he's certainly capable of 5-ish WAR per year

William

2:52

Could the Astros have realistically gotten anybody at the trade deadline who actually could’ve made a consistent presence in the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

I think so. Trey Mancini has been a nonfactor and that certainly left room for improvement

Imagine if they'd added Dan Vogelbach, for example. The lineup could use another lefty.

Guest

2:56

Jay, I find this baffling. The Yankees can say on the one hand, "We love Volpe/Peraza; we don't need Correa or Seager." Do I disagree? Sure, but whatever. It's not a huge surprise. But then, once Peraza is ready, the Yanks kept playing IKF, who just isn't able to do the job. This is confounding and yet seems rather typical for the Boone era.

Jay Jaffe

2:59

It's one thing to believe Volpe and Peraza have a bright future ahead of them, another to believe that they're ready to play SS on a contending team in 2022. They needed a better stopgap than IKF if they wanted to steer clear of Correa et al, and probably needed to take a longer look at Peraza if they thought he could overtake IKF for the postseason. I don't think this is necessarily on Boone; Cashman is the guy who builds the roster.

Hindsight is 20/20 but the play was probably trading for Trea Turner last summer.

Smiling Politely

2:59

Re: Kershaw (who, cmon, is not moving his kids away from their friends to finish 3rd or 4th and then retire, as he is not Tom Brady)...if he doesn't retire, do you think they try a Roger Clemens-esque "join us later in the year, when it's warmer, so you can limit your strain and be here for the fun?" Do you see that being viable for some other guys, too (Scherzer, etc.)?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

I can't see Kershaw doing it like that because he doesn't have the me-first drive that Clemens does, and would probably cringe at the idea of being a distraction on that level.

3:02

Spitballing here but I think in general there's a reason we don't see more of this, and that's because teams don't like it and it's not very well received by players

Aj

3:02

If Stanton reaches 500 HRs, but fails to reach 2000 hits and his WAR ends up at around 50, is he still a lock for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Probably not a lock but he'd have a chance.

Braves Simp

3:03

Acuna or Michael Harris ROC?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

It seems almost unthinkable that I'd have to hesitate on this question given what he has done up to this point but I want to see a healthy season out of Acuña before I'd pick him.

darrrrrr

3:05

Who retires first, Kershaw or Rich Hill?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

haha good question. Saw the note about Hill discussing a return to the Red Sox and it warmed my heart. I hope he pitches forever, 120 innings a year

Tiger's Fan

3:07

Do you think Ronald Acuna Jr. will return to pre injury form next year?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

i deeply, deeply hope so

true2theblue

3:08

Is it safe to consider Julio Rodriguez a lock for AL ROTY? Or should I still be losing sleep at night about Rutschman?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

I'd be surprised if it's not Julio, but Rutschman did have a pretty great season himself and it wouldn't be a crime if he won. Also, I don't think any award is worth losing sleep over except Tim Raines not winning in 1987. That one still pisses me off.

Tiger's Fan

3:10

Who do you think will produce more WAR over their careers....Julio Rodriguez, Wander Franco, or Fernando Tatis Jr.?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Since he has yet to deal with his first significant injury, I'd probably say Julio

Noah

3:11

Have the Yankees been secretly gifted the blessing of their 1 and 2 guys being unable to go until games 3 and 4? Obviously, being in an 0-2 hole is, uhhhh, suboptimal, but it seems like having Cole and Nestor at home vs. Javier and McCullers has got to make you feel pretty good. Or is it better at all points just to have your best guys up top?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

I don't know if it's a blessing, but I don't think things are as dire as they look

The glass-half-full view for the Yankees is this: facing the Astros' 1 & 2 starters in Houston with their own 4 & 3, they were in both games and lost two close ones by a total of 3 runs.

They now go home and have their 1 & 2 against the Astros 3 & 4.

3:13

Having said that, Houston's lineup is MUCH deeper than the Yankees, and their bullpen is much easier for its manager to navigate, and so the Astros are obviously in a much better position

Tiger's Fan

3:13

Do you think Juan Soto going forward will look like the 2022 version...or the version previously when he won a batting title and was hitting the ball hard?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

I'm not exactly sure what happened with that late-season slump but I do think he's got some things to work on as far as shoring up his mechanics. Having a full offseason and spring to work with Padres coaches should help. In the long run i'm not terribly concerned

David

3:15

Lowering the mound worked wonders the last time pitching was this dominant. Is there a similarly straightforward fix this time or is the issue of pitcher dominance too complicated for a single adjustment?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

To me the issue is that while I think it may be worthwhile to tweak the specifications regarding mound height and distance for the sake of restoring balance, I do fear that we'll have a generation of players that tries to compensate for the changes by throwing that much harder and risking injury in doing so. Pitching is hard enough; making it physically more challenging could have some ugly consequences.

I'd like to see what effect the pitch clock has on the balance. If pitchers don't have as much time to recharge and throw max effort, maybe it accomplishes the same thing while keeping the dimensions static.

Nomah

3:19

I know it's not supposed to, but do you think a Padres WS championship shifts the regular season MVP vote in his favor, especially given how poorly Goldschmidt and Arenado showed in their two and out?

Jay Jaffe

3:19

Awards voting finishes before the postseason starts. Those votes were cast before St. Louis went two and out.

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

3:22

If you were running the Mets, how would you approach this offseason, especially with three crucial free agents (deGrom, Diaz, Nimmo)?

Jay Jaffe

3:25

Since the farm system doesn't have much at the ready besides Alvarez and Baty, you're going to have to spend to replace these guys. I wouldn't sign deGrom without some sort of mechanism like the Castillo deal had, with a vesting option that triggers if he's able to hit an innings threshold and a cheap club option if he suffers a season-ending injury along the way. Of those three i'd guess it's probably Nimmo who's the most likely not to return and the place where they can use their resources to find somebody who's playable there without going to nine figures.

Maybe they could trade Alvarez and Baty for Trent Grisham (ducks)

Tiger's Fan

3:26

How long do you think Ohtani can be a two way player at an all star level as both a hitter and pitcher? Do you think at some point he will pick pitching over hitting? He seems like the type of guy that wants to play for a long time and have a HOF career.

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