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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/29/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, and welcome to today's chat! Thankfully the technical snarls that knocked last week's chat off the table aren't an issue today; apologies to those who showed up to that one or waited around for it to materialize to no avail.
2:01
As I'm on recap duty for Game 3 tonight, I did not write for today but did a piece about Eddie Rosario's hot streak yesterday https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/despite-a-rough-night-eddie-rosario-ha... and spoke to Kevin Goldstein about Dusty Baker https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kris-bubic-chats-changeups... and my recent piece on his managerial evolution and Hall of Fame case https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dusty-baker-job-security-and-the-hall-of-f...
Joe
2:02
How would you explain to the less analytically inclined why we care so much about pitcher K% but not nearly as much about hitter K%?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Pitcher strikeouts strongly correlate with run prevention and future success, but the relationship doesn't work the same way for hitters, in that a lot of high strikeout hitters have good power and generally strong production.
Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer
2:04
This year only 5 hitters with 400 or more PA matched or exceeded Mr. Allen's career wRC+.  It's a similar number every year.  Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Dick Allen should be a Hall of Famer. Dick Allen is not yet a Hall of Famer. Hopefully on December 5, that status changes (see here for more about this year's Era Committee schedule https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-experts-on-the-negro-leagues-involved...)
Ben
2:07
After Molina and Posey, are there any other current MLB catchers who have any shot at the Hall? To my eyes, even Grandal, Realmuto, and Salvador Perez seem like long shots.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Perez's Hall of Fame case depends way too much on ignoring the copious amount of data we have that says he's been a lousy pitch framer. Grandal's PED suspension (Biogenesis) will probably be an obstacle if he has the staying power. Realmuto will have to age very well, but as a latecomer to catching, it's not out of the question.

Will Smith is just getting started, and at a relatively late age, but the dude can hit, so he bears watching, but it could be awhile before anyone else's case comes into focus.
Ben
2:11
Now that even elite relievers don't always get a ton of saves, how do you think today's young relief pitchers (like Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz) will and should be evaluated when it comes time for their Hall of Fame evaluation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Longevity and run prevention are always going to be the keys to a pitcher's Hall of Fame case, and you'll note that Hader had a very traditional usage pattern en route to 34 saves this year. Likewise for Diaz and his 32 saves. If we're seeing leaders in the 20s, that might be cause to reevaluate but we're hardly there yet.

Higher-leverage success as expressed in WPA and WPA/LI is important and is increasingly part of what goes into the way I evaluate relievers from a Hall perspective.
John B
2:15
Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat and two early period negro league players (I’m assuming buck O’Neill would be one ) so that we have a couple live players on the dais as the writers won’t put anyone in.  Agree/disagree ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I'd much rather have the right guys — Miñoso and Allen first and foremost — elected than have living guys elected just for the sake of the fact that they're alive, especially because I don't think those two are very strong candidates relative to the competition. But if they get in and are around to celebrate it, good for them.
Ben
2:17
Has Carlos Correa now surpassed Lindor as most likely current shortstop to be a Hall of Famer someday? Or has Tatis already passed them both?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Correa's about a year younger and 3 bWAR ahead, so yes, he's surpassed Lindor. He was about 5 bWAR ahead of Tatis through his age-22 season (18.5 to 13.6), he's coming off the stronger year of the two, and he's more likely to be a shortstop five years from now, so I'd think he's ahead on that front as well.
RAndoM121
2:20
Do you believe Dusty Baker gets voted into the Hall of Fame even if he doesn't win a World Series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Wrote about that earlier this week. I think it's possible, especially when one considers what a trailblazer he's been among minority managers in a game with a piss-poor track record of giving them opportunities.
Ken
2:22
You wrote awhile back about players who had improved their HOF case this past season. I was surprised there was no mention of Matt Olson, who in his age 27 season hit a career high in home runs (39), learned to hit lefty pitching consistently, and is in the running for another Gold Glove (granted, at first base). It seems like he's on a glide path for strong HOF consideration if healthy (142 career home runs, strong OBP, and Gold Glove defense). Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Olson's a very good player, but with 18.1 bWAR through his age-27 season, he's not especially on a Hall of Fame path; he has one season of 5.0 WAR or better, and is 42nd in WAR. He's got some Hall of Famers on either side of him in that ranking, and some decidedly non-Hall of Famers as well.
Sabey Sabes
2:25
It's been ugly, but still good candidates out there. Are the Mets just Mets-ing up this POBO search at this point? Or is Cohen a real obstacle?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
What I'm hearing is that the main obstacle is the continued presence of Sandy Alderson with his son as assistant GM. That's a daunting situation to step into, and I don't think Cohen has impressed many potential candidates in his first year of owning a team.
Marshall
2:26
Do you think Kershaw will stay with the Dodgers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Yes. I don't think the two sides want to separate, and the fact that he's coming off a season-ending injury is going to dampen his market. Unless he *really* wants to leave to play in Texas, I think he's a Dodger in 2022, and probably for the remainder of his career.
richie ny
2:29
I'M a NYY fan who doesn't like Gallo. What  lefthanded CF/OF can be had in trades this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
They have Aaron Hicks coming back from injury and on a long-term deal, so the assumption is that he'll be back as the starting center fielder. I don't see much in the way of likely trade candidates among LH center fielders anyway unless they want, say, Odubel Herrera and his baggage, or a buy-low on Jackie Bradley Jr. Maybe if AJ Preller is wheeling and dealing there's a scenario where Trent Grisham becomes available but don't hold your breath.
Guest
2:32
Independent of everything else going on with the Mets PBO/GM search, what do you think of the noise around Sabean? There were suggestions that his camp had been contacting reporters to talk him up for the position; now, today, he is apparently telling reporters that he's longer interested because he hadn't been brought in for an interview. The whole thing just sounds weird!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
He made sense as a candidate and would have brought a lot of credibility to the role. I don't know why the Mets aren't interested but again, with Alderson there it's kind of weird.
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas
2:33
If things got a little more out of hand, were we looking at Atlanta using a position player to pitch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
Doubt it. It's not like they left the roster spots of Ynoa and Morton empty, they added pitchers. But you might see a starter or reliever wear a tough outing or take a PA in a questionable spot in order to avoid a worse situation down the road.
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas
2:35
Perez's career 302 OBP seems to be doing as much, if not more, damage than his framing numbers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
for sure.
To be honest
2:35
I enjoyed baseball a lot more before statistics ruled everything. I think the game is worse for it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
Youmean before Babe Ruth hit 59 homers then? Sure thing, great gramps.
Guest
2:36
Manfred's comments on "the chop" were terrible, but could he actually do anything about it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
yes, and I suppose it's not outside the realm of possibility that he was doing what he did in order to show how badly the Braves' excuse (baseball's a local game, we're selling tickets locally and working with a local tribe — when the postseason is on national TV and the NCAI is condemning the chop) wears before turning up the pressure. That might be giving him too much credit.

A lot of it comes down to whether the other owners have Manfred's back if he leans hard on the Braves. He's not going to do anything that will endanger his job security but he can make sure Atlanta doesn't get another All-Star Game without a pledge to get rid of the chop.
Mike Ortman
2:40
As the buzz around the potential Negro Leagues candidates starts to get going, I'm seeing Gus Greenlee's name come up.  It's not like they missed him before, I think it was because he ran a "numbers racket", which is so classically old-timey.  My question is do you see notorious, infamous guys like him, George Steinbrenner, or Charlie Finley ever going in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
Steinbrenner hasn't gotten much traction as a candidate and I don't think Finley's even been nominated. I imagine there's some behind-the-scenes pressure exerted by the Hall board to avoid certain candidates, but I'm spitballing here.
Justin
2:41
What do you make of the Bob Melvin news, good fit for SD? Also how bad of a sign of things to come is this for the A's
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Melvin is one of the most respected managers in the game, and seeing what he can do with a team with a bigger payroll and stars on the roster will be interesting. I do think this bodes poorly for the A's, who seem committed to cutting payroll and looking to exit Oakland if they don't get what they want in a local stadium deal.
Mr. Redlegs
2:44
How come Buddy Bell's name never comes up in HOF discussions? By JAWS he seems just slightly below the average HOF 3B.
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