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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/29/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Bell is strong in JAWS and thanks in large part to his defense, he didn't get a ton of recognition in his day in part because he never got to the postseason; even with 5 All-Star appearances and 4 Gold Gloves, his Hall of Fame Monitor score is just 67. There's a backlog of good candidates at third base, one that includes Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, and Scott Rolen (who's trending towards election), and a backlog of good candidates at other positions from his era, so it could be awhile before he ever gets on a ballot.
MoonBeamMcSwine
2:48
Brad Zimmer = LHH, CF'er OF'er can be had..for not much..
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
A soon-to-be-29-year-old with an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and 79 overall is a fallback for when your first two or three options get injured.
MoonBeamMcSwine
2:49
Gary Sanchez <== DFA?.. Should be DFA'd?.. or Will Brian Cashman make a 'face saving' deal like Roberto Perez for Gary + some cash?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
He's not going to get DFA'd — have you seen the state of catching right now? It's possible he gets dealt because the Yankees have so many arbitration-eligible players to deal with while also doing their free agent shopping, but it's not like they have a serviceable starter to replace him (Higashioka ain't that).
2:53
Roberto Perez has produced a combined -0.1 WAR over the past two seasons, so I don't see why the Yankees would deal for him
Joey Caltrain
2:54
Do you think Noah Syndergaard gets offered the QO? Do you think he takes it? $18.4 million seems at once like too much and too little for his 2022 campaign.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I think he gets the QO and that it's possible he rejects it and winds up with something more creatively structured (mutual option or player option for 2022)
WinTwins0410
2:55
Jay, I greatly enjoyed your piece on Dusty Baker and his HoF case. Is there a case, in your mind, for considering playing performance as being additive when evaluating managing Hall-worthiness? IE, does or should Dusty's performance as a player (37.0 WAR, I know -- not outstanding) help bolster his Hall case?  One could have done that with Joe Torre as well, who was a fine player and always seen as sort of a near-miss (but a miss) for the Hall as a player and then of course a can't-and-didn't-miss for the Hall as a manager. (I'm sure there are other examples like this, but another similar candidate like this from these guys' generation, Jim Fregosi, certainly didn't belong in the Hall either as a player or as a manager.)  Thoughts on playing performance aiding managers' Hall-worthiness?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Thank you.
I started thinking about the Dusty piece with a chunk of research that I wound up not using, on the merits of a player/manager career combination route to the Hall of Fame. Ultimately I didn’t find it to be a tremendously useful construct in terms of suggesting there are a handful of people it should elevate.
2:58
It turns out there are only 5 men with at least 30 bWAR as players and 1,000 wins as managers who aren’t already enshrined: Jim Fregosi, Felipe Alou, Jimmy Dykes, Mike Hargrove, and Baker. None has won a World Series, only Hargrove, Baker, and Fregosi won pennants (two for the first two, one for Fregosi), and only Baker has a win% above .503. Gil Hodges, a better player than any of them, only had 660 wins and was 93 games below .500. Don Mattingly doesn’t have a pennant yet and is below .500. I really think it takes near-HOF-level excellence to get to a point where the other career would push you over the line, and I don't think that's quite the shape of Dusty's qualifications.
Joey Caltrain
2:58
Besides Adley Rutschman, who of Joey Bart, Keibert Ruíz, Tyler Stephenson, or the other nearly MLB-ready catching prospects would you take for next year? Who do you think gets the most playing time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Take where? I think Ruiz and Stephenson have clear paths to playing time. Bart's situation depends on what the Giants envision for Buster beyond picking up his $22 million club option (a no-brainer, I think).
and to a lesser extent what happens with the universal DH
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas
3:00
Aside from Curt Flood, what "Golden Days" Era players who you do not think will make the ballot would be the most welcome surprise if they did?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
Bill Freehan
3:02
to a lesser extent I'd say Buzzie Bavasi and Danny Murtaugh, but there are enough players on that ballot that I want to see elected before them.
richie ny
3:03
Rank the following on who deseves to be in the HOF. Lofton, Bernie,Cone, Kevin Brown, Posada, Belle.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
Lofton for sure, and maybe Brown. I don't think any of the others are all that strong as candidates.. Cone's a bit below my line, Posada and Bernie even further below (ugh on the defensive numbers on both) as is Belle.
Dave
3:05
Suppose Max Scherzer finishes his career in Los Angeles and wins a World Series while there. Does this change the assumption that he goes into the Hall wearing a Nats cap?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Not unless he wants a blank cap. What he did in Washington might constitute the best of the $200 million contracts to date.
Bob Melvin Was Available?
3:06
How damaging is the Mets’ slow process in finding a POBO in the short and/or long term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
I think it's tough to get too far into an offseason without having one in place, and with having that as a top item on their to-do list. That said, this winter might be a slower-moving one because of the potential for lockout
Guest
3:08
WRT Dusty Baker and baseball's poor record of hiring minorities as managers and GMs- are there some good, possibly lesser-known candidates of color (or women, for that matter!) the Mets should look to for either position? Beane, Epstein, Sabean, Melvin, Showalter-- feels like a lot of recycled white dudes...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Michael Hill and Billy Owens are a couple of names that come to mind; the Mets interviewed the latter last year for their GM opening but didn't go that route, for whatever reason. DeJon Watson is another one who comes to mind. That there aren't others that so easily do is just another indicator of how behind the game is when it comes to grooming minority candidates for such openings.
trip
3:14
I am hoping giants resign gausman and alex wood, and let DeSclafini go , I am wrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
i don't know why the Giants wouldn't want DeSclafani unless his price becomes too high. He had a great season aside from the time he got knocked around for 10 runs by the Dodgers, which i know looms large in some fans' assessment of him. it shouldn't.
Joey Caltrain
3:16
If you were an owner who wasn't sure how the CBA would work out, would you hurry to sign players before December or wait until the new CBA is in place?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I don't think one can just decide that in a vacuum without knowing what the team's needs and budget are, and who the players are that might be interested.
There are some situations where it might make sense, and others where a team should see how the player's market develops and what happens with the CBA and revenue sharing, etc.
nick
3:18
Did you ever write an article on posada's hof case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Ben
3:18
Which would be more surprising - Freeman signing away from the Braves or Kershaw signing away from the Dodgers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Good question. Probably be more surprised by Freeman at this point — he's a face of the franchise type who is still in the prime of his career, whereas Kershaw is on the downslope and finally has his ring.
Mike Ortman
3:19
sorry if this got discussed during the season and I missed it… How smart is Jon Lester to hang around to hit some pretty significant milestones? He’s at 200 wins and just needs a couple of games to hit 2500 strikeouts. Although in the moment we might not think of him as a Hall of Famer, an era committee will sure look back on those numbers favorably! What do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
i think all of the indicators on Lester's performance over the past few years suggest he's barely hanging on; he totaled 0.6 bWAR over the past three seasons, for example. He needs a great defense behind him, which is what he got in St. Louis. A few more wins or strikeouts isn't going to change a ton of opinions around him — he's not getting to 250/3000.
WinTwins0410
3:22
Re: the Dusty research (on at least 30bWAR as players and 1,000 wins as managers): great research.  This truly is why FanGraphs is the place to be.  *Thank you*.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
I love having an audience for this stuff here.
So thank you for reading!
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