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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/31/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
I don't think that's his big issue so much as it is the fact that the likes of Lindor and Correa are so far ahead of him — and younger. Turner just finished his age-30 season and has 31.7 JAWS, about 8 points less than Correa (2 years younger) and about 9 less than Lindor (1 year younger). He has yet to have even one 5.0-bWAR season, and he's gonna need a bunch of those and more to get there
Bardo Bill
2:49
Reports were that when Nola and the Phillies were talking about an extension, Nola was looking for 8/200. Do you think he gets that as a free agent? Or something closer to the Rodon 6/162 deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Such is the dearth of free agent starting pitching that I bet somebody gives him something close to $200M. Not that I'm recommending it.
Arte
2:50
Any chance Ohtani accepts the QO in order to hit the market completely unencumbered by injury in 2025? Asking for a friend.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
Zero.
Jose Altuve
2:50
Did I solidify my HOF credentials this year or do I need another good year and a few average ones?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Playing just 90 games due to that WBC-broken thumb makes it more of a lost year than an improvement of chances, though he still has a 38% chance of getting to 3,000 hits via Dan Szymborski (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-freddie-freeman-re-open-the-3000-hit-c...). The best thing Altuve did for his cause was hit four postseason homers, including that game-winner in ALCS Game 5; he's now two shy of Manny Ramirez's career record of 27 postseason homers.
mac
2:55
how much signal do you think there is in how a hitter did against a certain pitch type in a year?
this is kind of a follow-up to the bellinger question: he hit really poorly against high velo this year. .189 avg, .259 wOBA both well below league average (.234, .305).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
not much. Ben Clemens actually looked into pitch-based splits (and high-velo within that) regarding José Abreu's free agent signing and found very little predictive value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreu-still-rakes-against-fastballs/
Noah
2:56
I keep seeing a lot of comments saying that the Astros are moving away from analytics. I get that that's the vibe ofJeff Bagwell (who dunks on analytics on broadcasts often) and, to an extent, Crane. But these comments seem to be indicting Dana Brown just because...he's a scout?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
This culture war shit is the most goddamn tiresome thing about the sport.
Benny
2:57
I agree he's behind Correa and Lindor, but Turner had 6.4 bWAR in 2021.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Whoops, you're right — when I sorted I forgot he split that season between Washington and LA. Still, he has a 30.1 peak score, and I found this past summer that a 40 peak score is a good indicator of future election, meaning that he needs to improve his seven best seasons by about 10 wins to get there. Lots of work to do
Caroll
2:59
If I go on to have a low-end HOF career, would winning the WS in my rookie year provide much of a boost to my candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
not really any moreso than winning it at another point in your career
Jonny
2:59
Do you anticipate Ohtani's contract to be set up with some opt-outs for him to get another bite at the apple once he is able to pitch effectively again?  Or will teams have to pay him the full fare as if he were still a full-time two-way player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
it's very possible that something like that is built into the contract, though I think it would have to be right after 2025, because the longer he goes, the more risk there is of decline/further injury to his pitching ability
John
3:00
Will Adolis García's playoff performance impact his arbitration case? Or are those figures only based on regular season performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I'm about 98% sure that only regular season stats are admissible in arbitration cases
Adam Stein
3:02
How much do you think playing on a team that cheated will impact Beltran’s Hall chances. And that of Altuve, Correa and others down the road.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
I think it's too early to know definitively. It does appear to have held back Beltran's first-year voting percentage (46.5%), but it's not clear yet whether those who left him off are hard no or soft no.

Altuve does seem to have gotten more benefit of the doubt than I think he deserves, in that while he was said not to have wanted to use the system, he was probably the one guy in that clubhouse with the stature to say, "Cool it, now!" and shut the whole operation down — and he didn't. Correa was one of the few Astros who said things that sounded like accountability, but he's got a long way to go.
Pat
3:05
2:56This culture war shit is the most goddamn tiresome thing about the sport.  Country.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
not entirely untrue but I'd put the war on democracy as far more tiresome
where's the guy who chimes in every week to go "Yay i'm so glad you guys aren't talking about politics anymore?"
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
3:06
Your father's pants slap, but I'm not sure that the Fat Albert sweater-collar combo is particularly hippie.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
LOL my friends and I had the same reaction. Maybe he traded his poncho for some magic mushrooms.
Kershaw Stan
3:07
Please tell me Kershaw is coming back in 2024, if only so that his most recent appearance isn't his last
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I wish I knew but the radio silence from him is pretty unnerving, as is the lack of detail about his shoulder problem.
Lacey
3:09
Who is the toughest out in baseball right now? Based on eye test, my money is on Freddie Freeman. But I was surprised to see him relatively far down on the list of pitchers per plate appearance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
I don't know that P/PA is that indicative of being a tough out, because a lot of deep-count guys strike out more often. Freddie's a good choice because his plate coverage is so damn good  but my vote would go to Yordan Alvarez, whose power makes the price of a mistake so damn high.
Log
3:12
I think we can all agree at this point that Austin Hedges was the most crucial and underrated pick up of the trade deadline.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Bochy got away with it in Game 1, but I absolutely cannot believe that a guy with a career 52 wRC+ — seven points north of the Mathis Line — got to bat with two on and two out in the ninth inning of a tied World Series game when other options were available.
John
3:15
Do you think Kim Ng will get another chance to head an MLB front office? I thought she did a killer job in Miami and was shocked by her sudden departure
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Yes. Perhaps not this offseason when the opportunities are so limited, but at some point she'll have a job better than the one she just left.
Lefty
3:16
Odds of SF opening the piggy bank and getting Yamamoto, Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee? 2 of 3? Any?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
slim. Chapman makes a lot of sense for them but I think Yamamoto is going to have so many suitors that it's tough to see the Giants emerging as the favorites to sign him, even given Bob Melvin's links to several Japanese players.
Johnathan
3:19
What casts a bigger pall over the Angels' selling price: their bungling of the Ohtani years, or the remainder of Rendon's contact?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
More likely the former and the decrepitude of the farm system, which ranks last in our Organizational Rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
Keenan
3:21
Do you think AZ can keep up the strange pitching stats for the WS? .200 BABIP while allowing a 48.6% hard hit rate seems like it might level off over the course of 7 games.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
it's the .200 BABIP and 17.6% barrel rate that gets me.
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