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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/18
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cheese
1:29
Kluber and Kipnis for Verdugo, Joc, and May - is that close?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
Kipnis has been a below-average player for the past two seasons and an injury-prone one for longer. I can't imagine him being a trade target for any contender unless it's in exchange for a similarly weighty contract. And as good as Kluber is, I don't see the Dodgers giving up that much future value for starting pitching when they have a deeper stock than most, particularly with the return of Ryu.
Nate
1:33
How do you pronounce your last name? Silent "e"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Rhymes with taffy.
Leprechaun
1:33
Madison Bumgarner's trade value: higher now or after a strong first half?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
Higher now, because he pitched well when available last year, though yes, the lower strikeout rate is cause for some concern. I'd rather take a chance on getting 180-200 innings from him than 50-60 down the stretch.
Vino
1:38
Assuming Harper doesn't re-sign with the Nationals and that he and Machado both stay on their Hall of Fame paths, what would you say are the chances they wear the hats they sign with this winter on their plaques?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
less than 50%, because I think both deals will contain opt-outs that allow them another shot at free agency by their early 30s.
Tyler
1:39
Why should what pick someone is have anything to do with if they deserve to be in the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
I'm not saying it's a huge factor, but from a historical perspective, it's an interesting facet of his career, and something worth reminding Mauer's detractors in particular. There's a weight of expectations that comes with being 1/1 that few have been able to live up to. in 54 years of the amateur draft, only Griffey, Jones and A-Rod have been chosen at 1/1 and produced more value than Mauer.
James
1:43
What is the worst FA deal ever? Largest contract to provide negative WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Dunno about the second — Pablo Sandoval, maybe? — but you can spend some time looking at those of Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Davis, Albert Pujols and Sandoval and find some of the worst.
P
1:46
What did you order for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
poke bowl. I just discovered these — essentially an alternate delivery system for sushi — earlier this year and while they make a pricey lunch, they're a lot healthier than I'm prone to eating sometimes.
resumeman
1:47
Were there people in the media arguing against deGrom for Cy on account of wins? I've seen a number of comments along the lines of "even though a few old grumps still think wins should decide the best pitcher, most people no longer do" But I don't recall *anyone* saying he shouldn't win on that account. Were there any prominent ones you noticed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:49
Within the media, I don't recall much, but I simply could have forgotten; I've only got so much room for that stuff, and it matters even less. What I did see was a whole lot of Nationals fans who obviously felt Scherzer should have won, and I can't begrudge them their view – he did have a great season.
Trevor
1:49
Will Pujols pass Musial in MVP shares?  He currently trails by .05 (6.96 to 6.91), and he's got three more years on his contract, but he's been so bad lately that finishing anywhere on a ballot at this point seems doubtful.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:50
you answered your own question. he's never going to be even a down-ballot MVP candidate again.
Nate
1:50
Do you think McGwire ever makes the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:52
Yes. It may take 30 years but it will happen, as the electorate changes and distance from the hurt feelings decreases.
joe
1:52
Trevor Bauer pitched over half his games vs the AL Central.  He's complaint should be against those teams not vs the voters.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
Trevor Bauer will always find something to complain about, as surely as the sun rises in the east.
SouthSide Jeff
1:53
Minnie Minoso and Dick Allen should be HOF.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
yes and yes.
Nate
1:54
Which down ballot HOF candidate do you think has the best chance to start picking up votes in the upcoming years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:55
As the ballot traffic thins, I think Scott Rolen (10.2% in his debut) is likely to accumulate support rather than fall off.
stever20
1:55
Is Sale ever going to win a Cy Young in your opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:56
He's gotten very unlucky the past two years, spending the first 2/3 of the season as the clear frontrunner, more or less, and then fading/getting hurt. As for his future candidacy, I guess it depends on how serious his shoulder issue was.
Hello
1:56
Would Cutch be a good option for the Braves?  Mid-size contract, solid corner OF guy, good mentor for young players
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57
That makes some sense, sure.
Bill
1:57
Have you ever thought about indexing JAWS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:59
Yes. I struggle with deviating from the simplicity of what i've already created, particularly with a book and so much writing out there that I would prefer remain compatible with my current writing, and tweaking it. I tend to worry that more numbers and more explaining is the wrong way to go. KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid.
2:00
and with that, we're out of time. No chat next week, so happy thanksgiving to you all!
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