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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/17/20
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WinTwins0410
3:04
Jay, can you talk a little about Mickey Lolich and the Hall? Low WAR, but high "K" total (20th all-time — ahead of Mussina, Glavine, Spahn, Feller and yes, Cy Young himself). Plus, Lolich had some dominant years in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In his early years on the writers’ ballot, Lolich got modest upward momentum, but his votes really tailed off in one year (from 25% to 10.5%), likely due to Gaylord and Fergie (and Jim Kaat) all coming on the ballot and soaking up votes ahead of him. More dominant pitchers hit the ballot afterward as well. (I didn’t realize until now that Mickey stayed on the ballot for all 15 years of eligibility.) Also, can you comment on Lolich’s incredible 1971 season, where he went 25-14 and threw 376.0 innings — the second-most IP of anyone in the modern era after Wilbur Wood’s 376.2 IP in 1972.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Lolich racked up 2,832 strikeouts and put up some ungodly single-season numbers; he averaged 337 innings  and 7.1 WAR per year from 1971-73 despite the two-week player strike in '72. But the main reason his numbers don't shine is that he wasn't particularly great at run prevention; his 3.44 ERA translates to a very middling 104 ERA+ for his career. He's 119th in JAWS (48.0/37.8/42.9), still better than Jack Morris (43.5/32.6/38.0) and Catfish Hunter (40.9/34.9/37.9) — 169th and 170th — but without the fame quotient.
Jake
3:10
The Red Sox with the highest WAR in 2021 will be...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
I'll go with Xander Bogaerts.
Bogaerts projects for 4.0 WAR via our Depth Charts, Devers 4.4 even with shaky defense https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
Mike Ortman
3:12
Were you able to catch any of the Buck O'Neil discussion on YouTube last Friday with Joe, Bob, Ken, and Ken?  I am a small hall person I would say, but call Buck a "contributor" and elect the man already!  A shame it would be too late, but all the same, it's good for the legions of Buck fans and sure someone whose plaque would bring actual joy to a lot of people.  What do you think Jay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I missed it but i'm generally in favor of electing Buck.
Key Flaw
3:14
I know there is a feeling that relief pitchers are getting the shaft with WAR and the Hall of Fame, and some folks think of treating them as a different position than starters. But, really, they aren't a different position but instead are the same position (pitcher) that is used differently than starters. So wouldn't arguing that the best relievers should be in the hall of fame would be (flippantly) akin to saying the best pinch hitters or pinch runners should also be? I know that is silly and not the same, but I it doesn't feel like Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman really had Hall of Fame careers due to them pitching so few innings no matter how good those innings were.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
you can't put the genie back in the bottle. Voters have recognized a small handful of the best relievers by electing them, but even with Hoffman, Smith, and Rivera gaining entry in close proximity, the group isn't exactly threatening to take over the Hall. Maybe Wagner gets in, but it's tough to see another reliever besides him doing so over the next decade, at least.
Isolated Thinker
3:17
Theo Epstein stepped down today.  Are the Mets the obvious fit here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Not if we take the multiple reports that Epstein plans to take the year off at face value.
3:18
It sounds as though he wants to be involved in something with an ownership stake, and unless Steve Cohen makes that part of the package, I wouldn't hold my breath.
David
3:18
buehrle and hudson seem realy similar to me. do you think the voters will prefer one or the other or will they basically get the same support?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Offhand, I'd think that Buehrle's no-hitter, perfect game, 2005 championship, and Gold Gloves make him the more attractive candidate to the casual observer, but theHall of Fame Monitor — which captures that kind of stuff reasonably well — has Hudson ahead of him, 66-52. I imagine they'll fare similarly, getting a handful of votes but not enough to reach 5%.
WinTwins0410
3:21
Jay, I can't disagree your ineligible-for-the-Hall pick in Brandon Webb.  But does Mark Prior fit as an honorable mention in that category?  No Cy, but an All-Star pick, a ton of strikeouts in his five years in the bigs and now...pitching coach for a World Series-winning team.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
The fact that Prior's career was so short is a massive bummer but he really only had one season good enough for CY consideration and about half the WAR that Webb had.
NorCal Angels
3:22
Why is Scott Rolen not in the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
because too many voters think his career was too short and don't properly weigh his offense/defense combo.
Mike Ortman
3:23
Because we've talked about the current ballot so much already, and you're about to do a lot of work writing about the newcomers, I find myself thinking more about the overlooked greats that still have a chance (Dick Allen and Minnie Minoso, etc.). Next to Buck O'Neil, the other "contributor" I'm curious about would be Curt Flood.  I don't recall your personal take on Curt Flood going in, other than he has a better chance now that Marvin Miller has been elected.  Would you vote him in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
It's been a long time since I've written about Flood. I've come around to the idea that he should be recognized as a contributor. While I'd be in favor of voting for him, they'd have to put me on the Era Committee, which... well, let's just say that I'm not tremendously optimistic that opportunity will ever come.
Guest
3:26
Speaking of modern reliuevers, what do you think about Kenley Jansen's hall case? He was consistently dominant from 2011-2017 and still may add a few more WAR. I like him more than Kimbrel, who has had more peaks and valleys.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Things have only gone downhill for both Jansen and Kimbrel since I wrote this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-potent...
3:28
Based on their 2019-20 performances, I don't see either of them as likely to have the longevity to enter into serious HOF discussions.
Key Flaw
3:28
Lou Whitaker not being in the hall (but Trammel is) is....well, we know probably why. But Bobby Grich not being is just as shocking. Both are overqualified, but is the value of pretty good offensive second basement with good gloves not seen by voters (I wonder if many see them as similar to Jeff Kent, despite the vast difference in defense).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
There weren't any advanced defensive metrics to go by when Grich was on the ballot in 1992, alas, and he's never gotten a sniff from the Era Committees. Given his low batting average and hit total short of 2,000, I think it's going to take another generation of turnover before he even lands on a ballot.
Will
3:30
Where would Vizquel rank in the worst HOFer discussion? At any point in his career was he considered one of the best 20 players in baseball? Would be a huge overvaluation of accumulation and overestimation of both his defense and defense's relative value.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
He'd replace Rabbit Maranville as the lowest-ranked SS by JAWS, but still way better than Lloyd Waner, Chick Hafey, and Fred Lindstrom, High Pockets Kelly, and more.
Isolated Thinker
3:34
What's your take on Leo Mazzone and/or Johnny Sain making the HOF one day?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I think it's more likely they get a special award that makes them auxiliary members, like the Spink/Frick winners. Very tough to truly measure what makes a good coach, but there are a number who deserve some kind of recognition.
Jesse
3:35
Do you expect the Cubs to begin a proper rebuild this off-season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
because they were still pretty good despite having several players struggle in 2020, i can't see them cutting it to the bone the way they did for their previous rebuild.
Cove Dweller
3:36
Is there a player that you think would be HoF worthy had they not played as long as they did?  In other words, can a  player ruin his HoF chances by playing too long?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I'm struggling to think of a single example that would really fit the bill.
GSon
3:37
Jay.. can you just  NOT construct Francisco Lindor trades.. it's not in your wheel house.. thanks..
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Gary Sanchez for Francisco Lindor. Who Says No????
NorCal Angels
3:37
Watching other major sports, you see them trade picks a lot. Why does baseball never seem to trade draft capital like that? What are the rules/ practices that prohibit it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
it's something that really should be allowed so as to give teams a fuller range of options in rebuilding. I think there's fear that it would lead to something along the lines of what JJ Cooper of Baseball America describes here:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ask-ba-should-mlb-teams-be-all...

"But the bigger problem is that any added excitement created by trading draft picks would be wiped away the first time a team sold a top-10 pick to a large revenue team for salary relief on a bad contract, which would happen. In other words, trading draft picks would only highlight the differences between high revenue teams and low revenue ones."
GSon
3:41
the gary sanchez deal.. EVERYONE with a brain..
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
That was my point, thanks.
3:43
OK folks, that's all I have time for today. Thanks for stopping by! There will be no chat next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, so please, have a happy and safe T-day.
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