JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/18/22

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/18/22

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albert belle

2:52

do you love mattingly because he is white and loathe me because i am black?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

It's Belle's repeated issues regarding women, including a domestic battery arrest and two arrests for stalking an ex-girlfriend (for which he did brief jail time and 5 years of probation) that disturb me most. His excuse for the Hannah Storm incident (“I didn’t even know it was Hannah Storm. I thought it was Lesley Visser. I wish it was Lesley Visser, because I don’t like her anyway.”) doesn't exactly indicate a respect for women, either.

Anthopolous' burner

2:56

Even if I re-sign Swanson, we still have other needs to address and not a ton of salary room to work with. Corner OF, pen help, etc. How am I going to do it?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

It probably starts with forgoing a re-sign of Kenley Jansen because you already have Raisel Iglesias under contract, and possibly a trade of Charlie Morton. Also, with Ozzie Albies back, it wouldn't surprise me if Vaughn Grissom gets a look in the outfield. Eric Longenhagen suggested a superutility role is more likely than him being the shortstop in waiting if Swanson leaves.

Moose

3:03

Thoughts on that Mariners-Diamondbacks trade from last night? It felt like a Lewis-M’s split had been imminent since the summer, so I wasn’t blindsided by him being traded, but admittedly know next to nothing about Hummel (aside from him struggling in his first MLB stint last season and putting up great numbers at AAA).

Jay Jaffe

3:05

I don't have much in the way of deep thought about the deal other than Lewis' endless litany of injuries made it tough for Seattle to figure him out. I suspect this increases the likelihood Mitch Haniger sticks around, and I don't know much about Hummel other than the fact that he has some value at catcher, too. Justin Choi has a thoughtful writeup of the trade here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-diamondbacks-and-mariners-combine-on-o...

Mr. Burrito

3:05

How much more important will speed be after the rule changes on pickoffs and limited shifting kick in? Could T. Turner see his value grow a bit, given his legs help him benefit from both rule changes? Is the industry under-estimating this or am I over-thinking it?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

I think you're overthinking it a bit. Speed — particularly Turner's 99th percentile speed — already has value, though it's worth noting that Statcast sees him as average-at-best in moving to his left on the defensive side.

Matt

3:08

Do you think this year had a positive, negative, or neutral effect on Harper's HOF case? Was playing great before the injury, bad after until the playoffs, and played like man on fire during the run?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

He netted just 2.5 bWAR, which wasn't great in the long run, but going into Videogame Stats mode in the postseason, racking an NLCS MVP award, and reaching the World Series checked some boxes that will help to round out his case down the road.

Dan

3:10

Does the rumors of collusion affect how hard the Mets try to sign Judge?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

no.

Liz

3:12

What kind of performance and for how long would Bogaerts need to maintain in order to have a shot at the HOF? I remember getting the sense from your midseason writeup that he was behind pace compared to eg. Correa.

Jay Jaffe

3:12

3:16

He's got considerable work to do, particularly as he tops out at 6.3 WAR and for as great a season as he had, came in at just 5.8, his second season above 5.0 (he has 2 at 4.9). He's going to need longevity AND continued star-caliber play for several years.

Let's say his next 4 years produce 22 WAR via two 6-WAR season and two 5-WAR ones. that gets him to 56.9/35.4/46.1 and he'd be headed into his age-34 season — IOW still needing to do some heavy lifting.

WinTwins0410

3:17

Jay, I know Hall of Fame balloting isn't a zero-sum game, but seeing the Contemporary Era ballot, it sure is that way now. I was not a fan of inducting Bonds, Clemens and Schilling (I know most disagree!), but regardless, I now find myself thinking, I just wish the writers had let those three hair-covered candidates into the Hall, because I see what keeping them out has done -- it's prevented (for now, at least) other worthy Contemporary Era candidates (Whitaker, Hershiser, Dewey) from even getting on this ballot (I know you wrote as much, when you wrote of BCS, "I fear that by drawing moderate support they’ll become impediments to others being honored by this route."). Given the inherent limitations now of this new veterans committee structure, is someone like me (a fan of the kinds of neglected candidates listed above) better off rooting for the writers to let in as many candidates possible from here on out? What are your thoughts? (Thanks for your piece on how the HOC appears to have chosen candidates.)

Jay Jaffe

3:20

That's a very good question. I think the Hall is in a bind here, and we're most likely to see the Era Committees slow to a trickle in terms of inductions because of the format change and the presence of those roadblock-level candidates, though I think Schilling's case is probably easier for the committee to hold its nose regarding than, say, Bonds and Clemens.

Inaccessible Rail

3:21

Mets have picked up a bunch of low-cost bullpen options of late. Do you think they'll sign any established relievers beyond Diaz, or are they really trying to build a pen on the cheap?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

I highly doubt they're done spending on the bullpen, but I also think building a great bullpen has a lot to do with figuring out how to turn inexpensive guys into stud relievers. See what Houston and, to a lesser extent, the Yankees have done. Figuring out how to tweak the repertoires of guys so that they're effective is where it's at.

M's Fan

3:25

Will the Mariners finally spend money on a big free agent bat this offseason?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

They should — they have several areas of need. Trea Turner would obviously be a fit, and I like Brandon Nimmo in LF there more than I like him in CF in Toronto

Inaccessible Rail

3:27

Is Joey Gallo done? Or does he just need to get out of big cities like NY or LA?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

I don't know that the cities were the problem so much as it was the ballpark for Gallo, who's already pull-happy enough without the short porch of Yankee Stadium calling to him.

I think he'll straighten it out, and maybe it makes sense for a Texas reunion. The shift ban should help.

MikeD

3:29

Do you think the Hall purposely created a good vs. evil ballot with the good being Murphy, McGriff and Mattingly vs. the bad of Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Palmiero and Belle, who had his own PED suspicions? A statement ballot will require a statement, so maybe one of the first three will get in?

Jay Jaffe

3:29

It's a theory that's out there, for sure. I'd also say that McGriff's odds are an order of magnitude higher than those of Mattingly or Murphy

Matt (Oceanside)

3:30

I was recently going through every position on the diamond and trying to come up with my all-time top 10 list just for fun. Regarding center fielders for example, where do you put a guy like Oscar Charleston. From everything I've read, Charleston (he's 5 on my list) could have been better than Cobb, Speaker, or maybe even Mays. It feels really hard to evaluate Negro League players and that is a shame. The fact that they weren't allowed to play in the majors deprived us of many more legends in the game :( With that being said, I'm not interested in how good people think they are based on some over-compensation, I really want to find out the truth)

Jay Jaffe

3:32

I don't think we ever really know the truth when it comes to cross-era comparisons of such distance even if we're talking about, say Cobb and Speaker vs. Mays, or Mays vs. Trout, but it does seem pretty clear that Charleston was the Mays/Trout of his day, an all-around superstar who was far ahead of his peers.

Conehead

3:33

% chance Cone gets enshrined one day? Not getting to 200 wins hurts, but what's your take?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

Longshot, but I'm in favor, see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-back-to-the-sixties-p...

Pedro

3:34

Jay, thoughts about pitcher hangovers the year after winning the WS? I am thinking of Framber Valdez specifically, and all the extra innings on his arm as a result of Houston's playoff run. Thanks in advance

Jay Jaffe

3:37

It's something to look out for, and also worth noting that the Astros did a very good job of managing workloads this year, at times using a six-man rotation; 22 of Valdez's starts were made on 5 days of rest, and just 5 on 4 days of rest. I would think it beneficial to the team to try a similar strategy for 2023.

Guest

3:37

If Bonds and Clemens eventually make it into the Hall, do you think it's necessary to include Palmeiro as well? The 500 homers + 3,000 hits thing, if opinions on the steroid era keep softening, seems like he should be an easy selection.

Jay Jaffe

3:40

I don't think there's any consensus, but the way I have addressed the issue within my work is to consider what came before testing and penalties were in place (the allegations regarding Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, and Ortiz) separately from what came after (the positive tests and suspensions of Palmeiro, Manny, A-Rod).

I've voted players in the first group but not those in the second, and I foresee maintaining that stance.

Mike

3:40

How do no-hitters, perfect games, 4 home run games, etc factor into JAWS?

Jay Jaffe

3:42

well, each of those games adds more WAR than your average game, even for a great player, but beyond that it's just an accomplishment of note that sits outside of JAWS. Even two voters relying in JAWS might weight those differently.

3:42

Do you think Mattingly's mediocre managerial career has hurt his HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe

3:44

Hurt? no, unless we're talking about the opportunity cost. I don't think they've helped him, though — it's not his fault the Marlins didn't g anywhere but he couldn't get the Dodgers to the World Series, for example — and quite frankly I don't think he's as good a manager as the handful of guys who may or may not get consideration on the next ballot (Leyland, Johnson, Piniella, Manuel) or, assuming they keep managing for a couple years, the one after (Baker, Bochy).

Guest

3:44

Do you expect A-Rod to eventually make it to the HOF?

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