JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/19/24

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 11/19/24

Jay Jaffe

12:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my Tuesday chat in awhile. Between playoff coverage, election day, and a family emergency, I haven't been able to fill this timeslot in awhile; apologies if you've been itching for a chat (also, please see a doctor if the itch persists).

12:03

Yesterday I took a first look at this year's BBWAA ballot, which features Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia as the top first-year candidates and Billy Wagner as the top holdover (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2025-bbwaa-hal...). Today, my Era Committee series continues with a look at the candidacy of Dave Parker

12:04

That one will go live at 12:30 I'm told. Vic Harris will follow tomorrow.

12:06

One more bit of adminstration before I get into the questions. Since I last chatted, Bluesky has taken off as the social media platform of choice for baseball chatter of a certain bent, and almost everybody from the FanGraphs family now has an account there. Dan Szymborski helpfully put together a starter pack of the FG-related accounts here https://bsky.app/profile/dszymborski.bsky.social/post/3layykgak222s; I'm @jayjaffe.bsky.social there

12:07

I'm winding down my participation on Uncle Elmo's Authoritatian Disinfo, Grift,and Harassment platform but haven't entirely figured out the timeline for that. If you want to interact with me and my work, that's less likely to draw a response now.

Anyway, on with the show...

Filipe

12:07

Hi Jay! Do you think there’s going to be a lockout in 2026/27? Missed regular season games?

Jay Jaffe

12:08

Man, I don't know! People ask about this every few months and while i could easily dodge the question, I just fail to see the point in worrying about it until we're actually looking down the barrel of it.

I'm sure the union is concerned, but nothing is going to happen without an imminent deadline.

Guest

12:08

Do you really think Utley eventually gets in? A lot of the voters are more analytically inclined now than those that didn't vote for the likes of Rolen 10 years ago, but he still didn't come close.

Jay Jaffe

12:12

In the past decade, we've seen a handful of candidates overcome starts much lower than Utley's 29.8%, including Tim Raines, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Mike Mussina, and (hopefully) Wagner. I'm not guaranteeing anything, particularly in the near term, but I think he'll make it.

Bob

12:12

In your opinion what are the chances that ohtani wins unanimous mvp once again.

Jay Jaffe

12:14

Pretty high. There was a point where voting for Lindor seemed defensible ,but his time missed down the stretch probably threw cold water on that. Still had an amazing season (and postseason)

12:14

Thank you for doing this. If Ohtani does not throw another pitch at the MLB level (hope this won't happen) but produces at ~70% of the 2024 levels by bat in 5 of the remaining years of the current contract (still >35, 35!), will he be in HOF?

Jay Jaffe

12:16

Oh, that would definitely do it. Particularly if he's a 3x MVP who was able to pull off the pitching/hitting combo for even as long as he already has, I think he's already a likely HOFer. Wrote about it this past July https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2024-progress-rep...

12:17

Agree/disagree? Excluding Manny/Ichiro, Beltran is the on-ballot outfielder most deserving of HoF induction.

Jay Jaffe

12:18

yes. Second-highest career WAR on the ballot — higher than Ichiro, even — and a considerable collection of stats and accomplishments. He's solidy ahead of Andruw and Abreu, and a million miles ahead of the ballot's other OFs

12:18

Do you expect you'll personally select the maximum 10 players in this year's vote?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

Yes. Haven't entirely figured it out yet; I'm still battling with my virtual Classic Baseball ballot

Talfred

12:19

Does it seem to you that some of the big revenue teams have just decided to stop concerning themselves with the Competitive Balance Tax penalties? Are revenues that strong?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

I think these things tend to be cyclical. We saw the Dodgers and Yankees dial back for a couple years to reset themselves and avoid the worst penalties, and eventually we'll see, like, the Mets and Padres do it

davealden53

12:22

I'm happy to be a FanGraphs member for many reasons but one of the top ones is Roster Resource. Thus, I'm uncomfortable that the latest Roster Resource transaction shown is October 13. Just an offseason break or is something changing?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

We're in offseason mode, so it's the Offseason Tracker you want (linked next to the Transaction Tracker) https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/offseason-tracker/undefined

Pauly Shore

12:23

Is Paul Skenes the most hyped pitcher after his first season of this century? Spencer Strider, Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez are the challengers that come to mind.

Jay Jaffe

12:24

I don't really have an easy way of measuring that but I'd say Strasburg, Fernandez, and Felix all stand out as receiving massive hype as well.

Dan Sanchez

12:24

Who do you see aging more gracefully, Corbin Burnes or Max Fried? Burnes has historically had the advantage in stuff and strikeouts, but his K% has been declining for years, while Fried’s pedestrian rate has held and he’s relied on command and GB% to be effective. Then again, Burnes has been much more durable.

Jay Jaffe

12:26

That might be a $150-200 million question. I think Burnes' age and durability give him an edge, and Ben Clemens did as well while ranking them 4th and 7th on our Top 50 Free Agents list earlier this month https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

davealden53

12:26

Is the purported move of Betts back to the infield real or just a strategy to confuse the free agent market, e.g., "the Dodgers don't really need Adames"?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

I wouldn't discount the latter possibility but I think it has more to do with their attempt to retain Teoscar Hernández (and I don't think they're serious about Soto but they can't NOT meet with him)

Dan Sanchez

12:28

Jurickson Profar has been extremely volatile over the years, but is coming off a huge walk season. Seems like for 3/45 you could end up getting a bench guy or a star, or maybe something in the middle. What do you expect from him over the next few years?

Jay Jaffe

12:30

I think he'll be an above-average contributor but not a star-level one, with some of his value diminished by his crummy defense. He's really got to get better out there.

wheelhouse

12:30

is there any set of moves by which the yankees can be said to have had a "good" offseason in which they lose Soto? seems like a failure by default given what the other options are

Jay Jaffe

12:34

I think it would take something like signing one of the front-line pitchers (Burnes, Fried, Snell), adding Christian Walker at first base, getting a good left or center fielder and second or third baseman either via the FA market or trade (retaining Gleyber is one option there, obv). I will note that retaining Gerrit Cole (without investing an additional dime!) would also be one element of a successful but Soto-free offseason, and they've already banked that. It won't be an obvious win but man, those are some serious areas of need.

Phil

12:36

Will Ichiro be the oldest-debuting Hall of Famer (googling this question gets you Paige, which is wrong, since the Negro Leagues are major leagues)?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

I think we have to set the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball aside to get an accurate answer, since there were HOFers who played in the non-major Black leagues; John Henry Lloyd was 37 in 1921, for one.

With that caveat, the answer for latest-debuting HOFer by age is Hoyt Wilhelm, who was 29 in 1952 https://stathead.com/tiny/EkmsR

Guest

12:39

who is your favorite "underdog" candidate and why is it Francisco Rodriguez?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

It is definitely NOT K-Rod.

12:40

I'd say it's Utley in terms of ones I'm optimistic about regarding eventual election, and Russell Martin for the one I don't expect to get there anytime soon but one I intend to make a point about regarding the value of catcher framing as it pertains to current and upcoming candidates.

Guest

12:41

Does Buehrle have a shot within the next 6 years to be voted as a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

after slipping to 8.3% last year, I'm even more skeptical than I was before. Not happening via the writers. True for Pettitte as well

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