You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/4/22
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! And welcome to my first chat of November. That was one hell of a game last night. I wrote about Nick Castellanos' ongoing struggles at the plate, something I had planned to do even before he wound up in the position to be the hero or make the final out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/inevitably-game-5-found-the-slumping-nick-...
2:02
(Elsewhere on the site, Davy Andrews has a look at Castellanos' defense https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nick-castellanos-outshines-the-gold-glover...)
2:03
Yesterday I had a look at the ongoing outsized impact of home runs in the constricted offensive environment we see in October/November https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-hitters-are-great-but-the-long-ball-sti...
and now, on with the show...
sam
2:04
If judge leaves the Yankees (and the East), how would you rank the AL East teams for next szn
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Well, a lot would depend upon what the Yankees do to fill the void left by Judge's absence, because it's not like they'd go into the season without some other big bat or upgrades. But in terms of which team's roster as it would stand looks the strongest  if they don't retain their free agents, I suspect it might be the Blue Jays
James
2:07
Cristian Javier is a top___ pitcher in the league?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
I'd probably call him somebody in the top 10-12 starters in the AL
2:08
and I think he's got the upside to narrow that number down a bit. Lowest AVG and BABIP of any starter with at least 140 innings, and virtually tied with Ohtani in K%. That is some pitcher
Jax
2:08
Thoughts on Grifol? Realistic to expect Moncada, Grandal to bounce back in '23?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
I'm glad to see him get his shot but surprised it didn't come with KC, though I know Matt Quatraro comes highly recommended and that the Royals felt like they needed an outside POV from a new manager. So much of the White Sox's problems in 2022 had to do with health, and I suspect we'll see a lot of bouncebacks but I'd retain more skepticism when it comes to Grandal give his age (34 next week) and injury history than, say, Moncada or Anderson
Red
2:11
Obviously we know by now BvP stats aren’t very predictive. What metrics do you think are most pertinent in game planning for a specific hitter
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Probably a lot comes down to looking at performance versus pitch types and characteristics coming from similar pitchers, and matching swing planes. Who hits high velocity fastballs up in the zone, who's good at low breaking stuff, who shouldn't play against this type of pitcher if we have another alternative, how does this guy fare against sinker-slider combos with this kind of velo.
James
2:14
Will the Astros' Alvarez/Tucker/Pena core be better than the Altuve/Correa/Bregman core?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
That's a tall order, and I really doubt it, because the original trio all played important defensive positions and all could conceivably wind up in Cooperstown, setting aside how voters feel about the sign-stealing stuff. Alvarez is a DH in waiting, and Tucker is a corner outfielder, albeit a damn good one, but it's tough to match those up when compared to 2B and 3B
Blake Seams
2:17
Who would be your leading contenders for WS MVP at this point?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
If it's the Astros, Jeremy Peña has hit .381/.409/.619 and made some big defensive plays. A strong clinching start by Framber Valdez could top that given he already delivered a strong start, though.

As for the Phillies, Alex Bohm has hit .278/.350/.556 and made some tough defensive plays but if they're gonna come back to win two in a row i suspect the pool of candidates is going to deepen
Trader Jerry’s
2:19
Do you think Haniger gets a QO from Seattle, and if so, do you think he accepts it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Yes and yes. From Dipoto's standpoint, there's no bad one-year deal, and I can't imagine Haniger wanting to hit free agency with a 57-game season as his platform (to use a Boras term)
Jax
2:21
How much more valuable does catcher pop-time, pitcher time to the plate become with the increased base sizes
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
0.172 eensies more valuable.
Man, I dunno
Thank you for the chat!
2:22
Do you see a bad contract swap for the yanks around Hicks or another player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I think that could depend on the severity of Hicks' injury. I listened in on today's presser with Cashman and Boone but didn't retain what Cashman said about Hicks other than he's not going to discuss whether he'll be traded. If they do pull off such a swap I'd guess it's a pitcher but who knows
Giant Gonzales
2:25
With both DeGrom and Verlander being FA, do you think the Scherzer deal last year was an outlier or set a new market for 40+/yr ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
deGrom, assuming he opts out, is certain to chase $40M+. Not sure Verlander will see that high a market but I expect he can approximate an updated of his last pre-surgery deal of 2/$66M
Taiko
2:26
Since the playoffs are highly unpredictable, just getting into the postseason regularly gives a team a shot at the title each year. What in your mind do the Mariners have to do to build off this season and become a regular playoff participant?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
they were weak at 2B and in terms of the depth of their rotation, though not for lack of trying. A Castillo-Ray-Kirby-Gilbert quartet (however you want to order them) is pretty darn good but Ray didn't pull his weight this year; if he can return to something closer to Cy Young form and the others can continue to maintain or improve, that's a very strong unit
Thank you for the chat!
2:28
Are the Astros an underrated dynasty? The justified bad image from the scandal somewhat masks an incredible run similar to the Giants. Also Verlander has played in 5 world series now which also seems unreal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
It's been an incredible run — six straight ALCS with 3 pennants — but so far the only championship they have to show for it is a tainted one, so I think people can be forgiven if they don't place it aside the Giants (who were subpar in those intermediate years between championships) or the Torre-era Yankees.

Verlander is obviously a championship caliber pitcher even at 39 and a future Hall of Famer. He's left an indelible stamp on his era, and it was something of a relief to see him get the W last night. that said, in those previous 4 trips, the only championship he has is the aforementioned one, so I'm sure it would be a load off him if they won again.
Bad Bill
2:32
Opinions on the Arenado non-opt out?  (Bonus question: since he now won't be at 3B, how do the Cardinals make room for Jordan Walker?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Walker played a lot of right field in the minors this year and is seeing time at all three positions in the AFL right now. His future is clearly in the pasture if he remains in the organization
Thank you for the chat!
2:34
I want Harper to win a World Series and be validated as the great player he is. But I don't want a recession. How do we reconcile these options?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
You don't have control of either one of them, but one of those is a lot more fun?
Will
2:35
Trying to find a trade that works that creates a Donaldson/Oakland reunion. Would Laureano even entice the Yanks given the amount of $ or prospect power they'd have to send back? I'm sure sending Murphy in a deal that sends back JD would require a motherload of prospects
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
First off, they have control of Jose Trevino — who's coming off a 3.7 WAR season in which he became a first-time All-Star — for 3 more seasons so I can't see them targeting Murphy. And they now have Bader in center field, so I don't see Laureano as a particularly good fit; he doesn't have enough bat for a corner if they lose Judge.
TomBruno23
2:39
Cardinals, at a minimum, need to find a new 3rd best hitter to replace their retiring 42 year old DH. I do not see said hitter on the roster. What do you think they will do this winter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
I think they need to decide which is the real Tyler O'Neil, the guy from 2021 (144 wRC+ 5.6 WAR) or the one from '22 (101 wRC+, 1.5 WAR). They have above-average bats at just about every position but as I said in the Arenado piece above, outside help in the OF is probably worth pursuing. The bigger deal is who's going to catch, assuming Ivan Herrera isn't ready for the full-time job, and how they can improve the rotation, which just doesn't miss enough bats.
TKDC
2:42
Do you think there are any free agents that will alter their HOF odds depending on what they do? For example, if Kimbrel signs with a team that has no other known options at closer, doesn’t that improve his HOF odds?
Load More Messages
Connecting…