You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/4/22
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I don't think saving 30 games for the Pirates with a 4.00 ERA is going to move the needle much on Kimbrel. If he pitches well for a second-division team he'll be traded to set up somebody in August, as was the case in 2021. He's going to have to get back to something closer to form to revive his Hall chances
Will
2:45
Given this wouldve been the end of Harper's 4/$180M offer from the Dodgers, is it safe to say he left money on the table with the Phillies contract
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Sure. But he wanted what he wanted — sign someplace, demonstrate a full-length commitment to a team without any opt-outs or no-trades — and aim to reap the rewards for that, and so he was going to leave money on the table regardless. I wouldn't weep for him as he seems pretty damn happy with the way things are playin gout
Mike Trout
2:47
Don't batter vs pitch type numbers still have SSS problems? Or is that more of a scouting call than a data call?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
They do, which is why you want to bulk up the sample sizes by finding similar characteristics, and even then I imagine there's a fair bit of regression involved if you're modeling something. And yes, I imagine that a scouting component is gonna be part of the equation as well
Did Chewbacca use TP?
2:49
Thank you for hosting the chat! How do you think the FA will be this offseason? Will stars like Judge sign early or late? Any general trends you'd expect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
League revenues are at record levels, around $11 billion, and it looks like a pretty good free agent pool and — thank jeebus — labor peace so I'd expect it to be a pretty active market.
2:52
No idea how quickly Judge signs; I wouldn't be surprised if he agrees to a 9/$300M deal or something like that before the five-day exclusivity period elapses or waits until late January to make up his mind.
Grant
2:52
Yes or no: the Angels will make the playoffs by the year 2025
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Depends who owns the team and whether they retain Ohtani
but right now I'm not placing money on yes
Giant Gonzales
2:54
Follow up to that DeGrom/Verlander question. We've seen Tatis Jr and Julio Rodriguez get locked up to massive contracts early, which is great for both player and fans of the team, as Washington tried with Soto. Do those evaporate as soon as "future rookie superstar X"  gets signed to a franchise contract and then completely flames out in the following years/gets a career changing injury that leaves a team a player that has negative value for 10+ years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Doubt it, because each team that's making such a commitment will tell you their process differs from their competitors, and because teams tend to be careful about who they give those deals to. The Tatis one doesn't look great right now, admittedly, but the Padres were swinging for the fences on that one and it could still turn out well for them
Farhan
2:55
% chance that I sign Judge this year and Ohtani next year, we have the money
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I do think the Giants are the biggest threat to poach Judge but I'd be surprised if they could land both him AND Ohtani, especially because if the Yankees lose Judge I'd expect them to go hard at acquiring him
Ben
2:57
What would it take for the Mariners to close the gap with the Astros this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
multiple surgeries for several Astros
2:59
the Mariners are a promising team that  think has multiple playoff appearances ahead of it with this core but the Astros have been able to replenish on the fly with youngsters like Peña and Javier and Valdez without sacrificing competitiveness and that's just in another league compared to where the Mariners are.
Tom
2:59
Cards set for pitching? Is Flaherty the ace we thought he was?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
See above. The Cardinals lack startes who can miss bats, and Flaherty, much as I like him, has thrown 154.2 innings at around league average over the past three seasons
Tom
3:01
HOFers in the WS - Harper, Verlander, Altuve. Any others? Alvarez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
the landscape is pretty bleak for starting pitchers on a Hall track but I think Aaron Nola is a guy who has a shot if he can stay healthy; he's already got bWARs of 9.7 and 6.0 banked. I wouldn't rule out Alvarez or Tucker but I think if the former winds up planted at DH long term that will reduce his odds. I also do love Javier, who has only begun to scratch the surface with his talent.
Rex Manning Day
3:04
Am I crazy for thinking the consensus that Judge is going to age badly has become overdetermined? I know the track record for big dudes isn't great, but then, the only guys who've ever been close to Judge in both size *and* performance are Stanton and Winfield. Feels like people are focusing entirely on the Stantonian risk but ignoring the Winfield potential. Given the insanely small sample of comparable players, isn't there reason to think that being *this good* at Judge's size requires a level of athleticism that balances out a lot of the size-based risk?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I don't think that's an unreasonable view. Judge has spoke of the way he changed his training methods in order to reduce wear and tear, seeing the dangers of being a cage rat who wears himself out. I think that's a big part of the reason he's been able to stay on the field the last two seasons though obviously some of the reasons he's missed time have been more fluky
YorDaddy
3:08
No love for Pressly as a potential WS MVP? I know WPA favors closers but he does have a huge huge lead on that particular metric.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
No closer has won WS MVP since Mariano in 1999. In this day and a closer with 4.2 innings ain't gonna get it over a strong starter or hitter.
TomBruno23
3:10
I think at catcher the Cardinals will go hard after Sean Murphy as opposed to anything on the FA market.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
that seems plausible and they have the talent to get him.
Giant Gonzales
3:11
If you were Boston (and knowing that the owners obviously have a luxury tax payroll mandate for 3 years before reset) would you pay Devers $300+/10 yrs knowing that at some point he'll have to move positions to either 1B or DH?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I've never been as high on Devers as some, and I look at him right now and see a guy who's a 4-5 win player, as opposed to Bogaerts, who's a 5+ win player. So no, i'm not the guy who's going to sign Devers to 10/$300M+. That's not to say somebody won't, though
DBRuns
3:16
Jay, in the last 19 years, only one revenue sharing recipient (currently 14 teams) has won the World Series (the 2015 Royals). Is there a legitimate competitive balance issue in the sport? Perhaps the expanded postseason helps this (gives the Rays, Guardians, Brewers, etc. more rolls of the dice), but the playoffs are increasingly dominated by large market teams.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I think you can look at the argument from the other direction: 21 teams have won pennants and 14 have won the World Series in this millennium, without any team repeating as winners. We see a lot of teams choosing profits over competitiveness; the fact that the Royals can win, and that teams like Cleveland and Tampa Bay can get there is proof that it's not just market size determining this.
3:19
Much of the competitive balance problem in the sport is based on teams deciding NOT to compete and so we see a wider split between the best teams and the worst. The new CBA is supposed to incentivize competing; we'll see if it does what's intended.
3:20
OK folks, i have to cut this one off here. It's date night for my wife's birthday and I've got a few things to wrap up, ahem. Enjoy the rest of the World Series.
!!!
Connecting…