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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/7/23
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Matt VW
2:45
Hindsight is 20/20 and the conversation on pitching still had a strong "horses gotta horse" bent to it at the time, but is putting 276.2 innings on 20-year-old Dwight Gooden a factor in evaluating Johnson's HoF candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Eh, it's tough to hold that against Johnson specifically — those were the times and Gooden held up pretty well under the workload, or at least that wasn't really the cause of his downfall. That said, we don't have pitch counts for him (or anyone else, at least systematically) until 1988 so it's a bit harder to judge on a more granular basis.

It is a question that Johnson has thought about, however. When I was researching my piece I came across a recent Q&A he did with MLB's Bill Ladson (https://www.mlb.com/news/q-a-with-former-mets-manager-davey-johnson). This was the closing exchange:

MLB.com: Besides the Mets, you managed the Nationals, Orioles, Reds and Dodgers. Do you think you are a Hall of Fame manager?
2:49
Johnson: I don’t think anything about that. That’s the least of my worries. After I retired in 2013, my job is being a good father and husband. I take care of my dogs, chickens, and I have good properties now. When I look back on my [managerial] career, I hope I gave everybody chances. I also hope I didn’t abuse the pitchers and hurt their careers.
sorry, had to break that up
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:50
Do you get squirmy by the idea of the pitcher leading the league in walks winning the Cy Young (Snell)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I don't love it in the abstract and I really don't enjoy watching Snell nibble and walk four guys per night but he's shown a knack for sequencing and suppressing hard contact, (note the career -0.62 gap between his ERA and FIP) so I do believe those walks are less impactful than they would be in the hands of a less skilled pitcher
This is how it works
2:52
Actually, that's how Bonds+Clemens will get in. Some beloved, less notorious PED user will get in regardless of his suspension (no, I don't think it'll be Cruz), then enough voters will say, 'OK, guess it's just too unfair and inconsistent to not take Bonds/Clemens next'.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
The problem with that assumption is that the Hall controls who sits on the committees that votes on candidates and as we saw (again) last year, the institution isn't shy about stacking the deck. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-ha...
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:55
Muncy was quoted as saying his extension was "probably under market." Is that actually true, though? The wRC+ keeps creeping down, and the 3B defense is...erm...not great.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
The ZiPS forecast for Muncy as a 3B with -4 or -5 defense was two years and $37 million, and he got 2/$24M https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-muncy-and-the-dodgers-renew-their-vows...
So yes, the extension was almost certainly under market.
Guest
2:56
In the case of someone like Colon, do we need to go strictly on numbers? If I were a writer and I decided to vote for him partly based on his numbers and partly based on his other contributions to the game-- namely, the home run he hit and the jiggly-belly gif-- would that be so wrong? He straddled eras. He had a rise, a fall, and a redemption arc. He brought joy to many, and he was intermittently very, very good. Why can't that be enough?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Look, the world and the Hall might be better places if we recognized those things for what they are but the Hall is supposed to be a means of honoring the elite performances and most impactful figures in the game's history and I don't think you can easily get him onto those admittedly subjective tiers without opening the door to dozens of other guys who, for example, did similar without getting suspended.
Reds Enjoyer
2:59
Why are my Redlegs not mentioned more in the Bellinger discussions? Our payroll is going to be ridiculously low (even for us) and the fit seems perfect to me. 4 years/ $100 million, let's ride!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
he's going to get much more than 4/$100M
MostlyToasty1
3:00
I know he's coming off an elite GG-winning defensive year in CF, but does Brenton Doyle run the risk of losing playing time next year if the bat doesn't come around at some point? What does a realistic ceiling look like for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Well, the Rockies gave over 1400 PA to Raimel Tapia and his 77 wRC+ so it's pretty clear they have only a partial inkling of how to navigate this. I think they have to hope the bat will come around but Eric Longenhagen put grades of 20/30 on his hit tool and 30/40 on his game power, with a 40 FV overall grade, which isn't even low-end regular material. At best, based on my read of  the grades (I honestly have seen very little of his play and am not a scout anyway), my interpretation is that he could outdo himself and gets into that low-end regular bucket for a few years.
Jason
3:04
Are there any starters you think fit within Arizona's price range? I've seen Lorenzen as a guess but I'm not convinced he actually moves the needle at all.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Eduardo Rodriguez might be an option but I don't see why they couldn't pursue somebody like Jordan Montgomery, whose AAV will probably be in the low $20Ms. It's not like they're running $200M payrolls. If they're unwilling to pay to sustain this competitive window, direct your pitchforks towards Ken Kendrick
Just Fowl
3:07
Should Ohtani be wary of the Dodgers’ dubious history of pitchers’ health?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
should the guy with two TJ procedures (one modified)... wait you lost me there
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:08
Any surface level (or deeper) takes from the Steinbrenner press conference? Pointing out AZ/HOU as an excuse not to spend feels weak, and pre-meditated going all the way back to CBA negotiations.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
I didn't listen, tbh. He's clearly a very risk-averse and mostly controversy-averse owner, which would be less of a big deal if he were in a different market or had a different last name. If you're the Yankees, sometimes you just gotta hit the right players with your wallet, but that involves choosing the right players, too.
Dmytro
3:09
Think Rodon makes a bounceback? What do underlying stats tell us about him when he is healthy, why did he stop missing bats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
on that subject... I did not see Rodón sustain any level of performance for very long that gives me particular hope for a rebound, BUT his track record clearly illustrates an ability to fight his way out of the weeds, and that's not nothing. A cycle of back troubles is very tough to break, and I'm guessing that an offseason of not trying to fight the clock will be beneficial, which is to say that I think you/they just have to hope that they turn the page on a nightmarish year and go forward with a clean bill of health
Kyle
3:15
What do you make of Harper (via Boras) possibly hinting that he’d like more money in the form of an extension? The owners would never let Middleton set this precedent, right? It’s not like they can renegotiate when a player is a bust.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
it's silliness. He signed that deal. Salaries inevitably catch up to make such deals look less outrageous. The only way I'd extend him would be to create a lower AAV which would help navigate CBT issues. Like you wanna add two more years at $10 million? Uh ok I guess.
Byron Denniston
3:17
The $600 millionhype/expectation for Ohtani from late summer is long gone, down to $500. How low does it go? Harper, Machado, Bryant, etc all got hit with fake numbers before FA too
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
The $600 million number disappeared not because it was "fake" but because he had elbow surgery, creating very real concerns about his future as a pitcher.
as well as knocking him out for a full season in that department
Reds Enjoyer
3:18
My 100/4 estimate was a bit of a joke (obviously Bellinger will get a longer deal) but the sentiment was real. Even if he gets 175/7 I don't see why the Reds wouldn't be a suitor to pay him that. He would make a joke out of GABP if he played the way he did last year. Anyway, thanks for the chat as always Jay!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I probably fired off my answer too early; i threw around 4/$100-ish type estimates in-season when it looked more likely he would regress towards his less-impressive Statcast numbers.
3:20
It would make sense for the Reds to pursue him but he also does carry more risk than your average position player in the $100-200 million range based on his history, and the Reds... they carry more risk aversion when it comes to big salaries.
Justin
3:21
Not sure if you’ve seen mlb trade rumors free agent predictions but their salary predictions seem high to me on average. Do you agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
I saw the 12/$264M prediction for Bellinger and Coca Cola that I drank last week started shooting from my nose.
3:24
I haven't systematically evaluated their top-50 predictions, but some seem all right and a few seem outrageous. it will be interesting to compare their numbers with ours when our Top 50 runs next Thursday
Bob
3:24
Perhaps Dan is better suited for this question but are playoff stats included in a players projection for the next season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I don't believe so
Captain ACAB
3:24
Is HOF worthiness truly one of your passions or is it just the first way you broke on to the scene and were stuck with that niche?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
More the first than the second. I really enjoy the topic, came up with a tool that people found helpful, and was able to build that out in a manner that comprises a substantial part of my workload without feeling like an undue burden. It's great to occupy a spot where you're considered an expert on the subject — I've heard a lot of wonderful things from people within the game, and that means a lot to me
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