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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/8/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another offseason edition of my Thursday chat series. I'm immersed in the Today's Game ballot, the third installment of which just went up this morning https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thrills-provided-by-carter-and-clark-n...
stever20
12:02
what surprises, if any, did you have with the award finalist announcements on Monday?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
While it took me a day even to get to looking at the list of finalists because of how immersed I was in the Hall stuff, I guess the biggest surprise — but not all that big of one — was that Chris Sale didn't make the AL top three in Cy Young voting, owing to his late-season absences. That's not to begrudge Verlander, Snell and Kluber their spots, it's just a gauge of the steep cost of Sale's absence and subsequent struggles upon returning.

Beyond that, slight surprise Lorenzo Cain slipped out of the NL MVP top three and Javier Baez in, but both had great seasons. Not a major quibble, though.
The Old Buccaneer
12:08
Do you see the Zunino/Mallex deal as one likely to work out for both teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
quite possibly. I think Zunino's ongoing ups and downs on the offensive side are indicative that a change of scenery could help. Smith turned in a nice season and fills a hole that the Mariners have really struggled with in recent years.
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Craig Swan Lake
12:14
Will the MLB writer voters for awards eventually be replaced by Statcast algorithms?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
not happening. The major awards are issued by the BBWAA, an organization whose job is first and foremost to protect the interest of the writers within its membership. Major League Baseball could in theory decide that it wants to issue its awards via another process, but that wouldn't necessarily stop the BBWAA from doing its thing.
12:18
The Hank Aaron award, which is voted on by fans as well as media, as well-intentioned as it is, already shows how difficult it is to compete against the BBWAA awards.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:18
The Harper contract will be (over/under) $400M total, will contain (over/under) 2 opt outs, and will be signed for (over/under) the value of Manny Machado's eventual deal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Under $400 million, with one opt out. I predict Harper and Machado will split the honors with one getting the biggest $ amount and the other the highest AAV.
Craig Swan Lake
12:19
Does Keith Hernandez ever get into the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I think he's got a better case than any player on the Today's Game ballot (he's under the purview of the Modern Baseball Era Committee, which will vote next year) — a bit light in JAWS and traditional career totals due to both his unusual offensive profile for the position (low power, high AVG) and his mid-30s fade/retirement. But the impact his defense had was outsized, and I certainly think that the right panel could someday elect him.
Xolo
12:22
Don't all these ballots water down the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
The small-committee processes that have been in place since the beginning of the Hall of Fame voting have produced a mixed bag of results, no doubt. Many if not most of the institution's most egregious mistakes can be tracked to the Veterans Committee or its predecessor, the Old Timers Committee.

The Era Committees have done a better job in this regard; even if the ballots haven't been all that strong, it's not as though we're seeing a flood of substandard candidates being elected. If anything, the bar has been a bit too high, if guys like Minoso and Allen aren't being elected, and Whitaker and Grich aren't being placed on ballots. Not that I love the Jack Morris election, but pairing it with Trammell and opening the possibility of Whitaker getting a fair shake — that's a worthy trade.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:25
How to the Brewers handle 2B this season, pay up for the Schoop tender, and hope he holds his own long enough to bring up Hiura, or do they look elsewhere?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Schoop is a flawed player, sometimes maddeningly so, but the guy totaled 6.0 WAR in 2016-2017 and has one more year of  club control. The free agent market at 2B is primarily bounceback candidates — Murphy, Harrison, Kinsler, Dozier, even LeMahieu if you're considering his weak-sauce offense — so I'm not sure why they wouldn't bet on a less expensive one in Schoop.

I have to admit I got a chuckle out of the way David Roth characterized Schoop's post-trade collapse within his evaluation of the Brewers' deals: "...the results have ranged from Excellent (Gio Gonzalez) to Objectively Cromulent (Mike Moustakas) to Does Jonathan Schoop Have An Intestinal Parasite Or What."
https://deadspin.com/the-brewers-have-played-this-all-perfectly-182960...
Craig Swan Lake
12:33
The Mets & Yankees used to play an annual exhibition game called the "Mayor's Trophy Game." I can't seem to find pictures of the trophy on line. Was there one? If so, anyone know where it is now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
literally 15 seconds in Google turned up this https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527487048166045763354111480260...
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12:33
If deGrom doesn't win the Cy Young, Mets fans should (a) riot, (b) finally stop caring about awards, or (c) hope it saves the team some money on deGrom's arb salaries?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
(that's the missing answer, d)
Ryan
12:36
The Reds have mentioned the FA market as the source of a pitching upgrade, but should they be looking at the trade market instead?  It seems they could deal from their surplus of position player prospects in an attempt to acquire Kluber, Carrasco, or Paxton.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
The pitchers you mention are going to cost *a lot* in prospects, because they're so affordable from a contract/control perspective. I don't think cleaning out the system for a Kluber is what they're in need of right now and suspect when they're talking about FA they're aiming more towards the middle of the market, guys who can provide bulk innings, i.e,, Lance Lynn, not Patrick Corbin
A Tribe Called Kipnis
12:41
Thanks for the series on the Today's Game HOF ballot.  While not quite HOF level, Will Clark was surprisingly great for a longer period than I remembered.  He comes off as 85% Edgar Martinez (similar but not quite as good OBP and power).  Did enough media members like him enough to stick on the ballot for more than one year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Apparently not, because he did last just one year, receiving 4.4%. He's already been on one Today's Game ballot and I'd expect that if he doesn't break out this time past the "fewer than X votes" crowd then he won't be on the next one in 2022.
Matt
12:44
Let's say the Braves sign Brantley and trade for JT Realmuto...do they enter 2019 as the prohibitive NL East favorites?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
I'd want to see what they do with their pitching, and what the Phillies and Nationals do, before I start throwing the tag of "prohibitive favorite" around. Those teams aren't standing still.
Ariel White
12:45
Why did Wellington Castillo's bWAR (and possibly other WARs as well, I haven't checked) bounce around so much while he was not eligible to play (and therefore not playing).

In other words, how does someone who isn't playing have their WAR change by more than half a run over the course of a week? (I could give other examples of injured or otherwise not playing players whose WAR moved a lot).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
it's my understanding that defensive stats like DRS and UZR don't get updated on a daily basis. Also, things like league constants can change within seasons.

But more to the point, sweating half a run difference is a damn waste of time.
stever20
12:49
With the AL Cy Young, if Verlander wins and Kluber has a lot of support vs Snell- are the voters saying that innings matter- that you can't have only 160-180 innings and be in contention for the awards?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
As I wrote in connection to Chris Sale's case in early September, innings very much matter to voters. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sales-abridged-cy-young-case/ Except for strike seasons or the weird years when relievers win (none since 2003), we haven't seen a starting pitcher with fewer innings than David Price's 211 in 2012 win except for Clayton Kershaw (198.1 in 2014).
GSon
12:52
Do you agree that Jose Ramirez should have been # 5 on the AL MVP list.. JD deserved to be in the top three?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
No. Defense matters, which is why I'd put JD outside the top three.
Ariel White
12:52
Why is Torres getting so much ROY attention, more importantly, why is Wendle (who probably deserves the award the most) not getting any attention at all from anyone even on FG and on BP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Defense matters, and Torres had a much better year with the glove than Andjuar. Wendle had a very good year, good enough to win in some seasons, but Tampa Bay doesn't get a lot of coverage for reasons that aren't always fair.

It's also worth noting that Wendle had 104 PA two years ago, and 118 in 2016-17 which may have caused some confusion over his status; the cutoff  (130 at-bats) is rather arcane.
Brad Lipton
12:58
Today's Game ballot.  Not who you think should be voted in, but who you think will be voted it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
Kristen
12:59
Has Mazara plateaued?  Showed little improvement between his rookie year to his 3rd season
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