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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/13/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hey gang! Welcome to my Thursday chat, post Winter Meetings edition. I had a very good time in Las Vegas despite the dreadful layout of Mandalay Bay and the even more dreadful lack of sleep it took to get me both there and back while fulfilling my professional and personal obligations. I can only hint at how great it is to work with my fellow colleagues at FanGraphs. Anyway, there's plenty to discuss this week, but I don't know a damn thing about the Rule 5 draft, so please don't ask.
Nick
12:03
Hi Jay! As a journalist, what is the most excited part of being at the Winter Meetings?  I'm sure it's a great experience, but I'd imagine there's quite a bit of waiting around.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
it's great when there's a big transaction — signing or trade — to cover on deadline but the moves for this one didn't really rise to that standard, particularly compared to my last couple of meetings in 2014 and 2015. On a personal level, it's awesome to see so many people whose work I respect and admire, and lately, to hear people say such kind things about my work.
Tim
12:04
What does it say about the Veteran's committee that one of their members simply could not act like an adult on national TV when discussing their decision to include Baines? To me it says they can't attempt even the pretense of objectivity, further hurting their credibility among the public.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Yeah, I haven't read the full transcript of La Russa's comments but what I've seen was an embarrassment.

This applies less to La Russa than to Jerry Reinsdorf, but here's one weird trick the Hall of Fame could do to increase the credibility of the small committees: PROHIBIT ANY EMPLOYER FROM BEING ON A COMMITTEE WHERE HE CAN VOTE FOR HIS EMPLOYEE. Second to that, make the committee large enough (maybe double in size?) with enough neutral parties (i.e., journalists and actual historians) that somebody as closely linked as a player's ex-teammates and managers is forced to abstain from the vote on that particular candidate. It does not seem too much to ask, and yet it apparently is.
troke
12:09
Do you have any prediction of the likely landing spot for Harper and Machado?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
The more I hear about the Dodgers trying to clear payroll and their outfield logjam (see https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/dodgers-poised-to-deal-fro...) the more I think they're lining themselves up for a run at Harper, and if he signs there, that probably makes Machado to Philadelphia an inevitability.
Hello
12:10
Familia contract seems like market value (or slightly below).  But is it the best use of NYM's resources?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
The Mets' bullpen was dreadful, particularly after he was traded. There's always a risk when spending money on relieves, but $10 million a year isn't ridiculous as he's pretty good, and if you or the Mets are sweating that kind of investment, then they're not ready to act as a big market contender.
Beetlejuice
12:12
Should TLR be included in any future veteran's committee votes after that ridiculous outburst on MLBN the other day? He thinks he is the be-all end-all in baseball knowledge and it hurts the Hall's brand to have him associated with them.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
Again, that was an embarrassing moment. I'm still mad about it. When you consider TLR's previous shots across the bow AND the presence of Joe Morgan himself on that committee, it seems apparent that the Hall is trying to send a very anti- analytical message to the rest of the baseball world about its process.
William
12:15
Now that you've all been on MLBN, I can say that none of you Fangraphers look anything like I thought.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
We clean up well for TV! I thought both Jeff and Meg did great, and I'm a bit envious of the latter. It took me seven years of occasional spots to get on a panel with the great Jayson Stark (mostly because he was at ESPN), and I've only been on set, never on the same panel, as Peter Gammons. She got both on her first appearance, and sounded great in talking to them and BK to boot.
Always Question the Man
12:17
Tell me about the Rule 5 draft
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Roberto Clemente and Johan Santana are still the best Rule 5 picks ever, even after today. Also, the June amateur draft is the Rule 4 draft. I don't know what Rules 1-3 cover.
Slothrop
12:18
What are some of the best player autobiographies you've read? The funniest? The most controversial?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Jim Bouton's Ball Four is the best, the funniest and most controversial. Veeck as in Wreck and Nice Guys Finish Last (about Leo Durocher) are stone-cold must-read classics.  I really enjoyed Sparky Lyle's The Bronx Zoo, which I recall as being pretty funny.

Jose Canseco's Juiced certainly shook up the industry and probably gets 2nd in the controversial class but it's hardly the best.
Justin H
12:21
So after this year's committee vote, does the likelyhood of Dale Murphy and Mattingly, etc. getting elected soon increase significantly?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Yes, though I would say that the four players elected over the past two years via that format suggest longevity as the primary driver, and those two players don't fit that description the way, say, Fred McGriff (who's in his final year of BBWAA eligibility) and Jeff Kent (who has four more years after this) do.
Phil
12:24
What are some implementation strategies that the MLB can use to try and ramp up the activity at the winter meetings? They have made them a huge spectacle, only to provide little FA movement
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
I don't think MLB needs to do anything to goose activity for the meetings. If it happens, fine, but there's no reason to artificially rush people to make decisions involving 10s or 100s of millions of dollars, even if there's a heavy presence of TV cameras.
Band Wagonen
12:26
Hey Jay, Your thoughts on Mets signing Familia for $10M? Is that a great deal or should other relievers like Robertson, also get close to the $10M per year
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I'd much rather have David Robertson at $10 million a year than Familia or Joe Kelly (whom the Dodgers just signed for 3/$25M) given the strength of his track record.
Pie Eaton Contest
12:27
What does Joey Votto need to do for the rest of his career to be a likely Hall member?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
The big thing is getting to 2,000 hits; he's at 1,729 through his age-34 season, and healthy, so that shouldn't be a problem. Voters haven't elected anybody from the post-1960 expansion era with fewer than 2,000, which is one reason why guys such as Andruw Jones and Lance Berkman are struggling for support.

Even if he retires before the end of his contract (2023, with an option for 2024), by the time Votto is eligible for the Hall, the electorate as a whole will be so much more well versed in the virtues of OBP and wRC+ (or OPS+, or even the new DRC+ from Baseball Prospectus) that there won't be many voters complaining about how he only drove in 100 runs a couple of times.
carrotjuice
12:31
So I just realized that Mariano Rivera really outperformed his peripherals over his career. How much credit does he "deserve" for his career 49 ERA-  vs. his FIP- of 62 and his xFIP- of 69? As in how much was skill, and how much was a statistical anomaly?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
The longer a pitcher lasts, the more his ERA and ability to outpitch his peripherals — primarily via quality of contact and sequencing — should be credited. For a full career, the actual stats matter more than the "shoulda" ones, which is one reason why I still use bWAR in my JAWS rather than fWAR.
Michael
12:35
Do you see any 300 game winners on the horizon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Dan Szymborski, his ZiPS machine and I collaborated on something that was connected to Justin Verlander's 200th win showing the odds of active pitchers getting to 300 (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/verlander-and-the-200-win-club/). JV, Kershaw, Sabathia, Greinke and Sale all had an estimated 20% or better shot at 300 by the methodology Dan used. Now, we appear to be at a moment where starters' usage and in particular the expectation of 200 innings per year for frontline starters is changing — which ZiPS can't see — so I think it's fair to dial down those odds a bit. Still, it's a good guess that one of those pitchers emerges from the pack to get to 300.
12:39
Oh hey, via Meg Rowley, I am informed that my HOF profile du jour, Lance Berkman, is now live and ready for its world premiere. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-...
Casual fan
12:41
did you drop an "F" bomb on national TV? I rewound it like 10 times and it almost sounded like you did
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
If I had, you and I would have both heard about it, so no (I'm not even sure where in the segment it was).

Despite the fact that I am prone to working blue on Twitter, I have never, in over 10 years of radio and TV appearances, said anything to endanger any outlet's FCC license or even draw a complaint from my hosts. I have, however, dropped an f-bomb when quoted in the Wall Street Journal. http://www.futilityinfielder.com/wordpress/2009/03/you-can-add-droppin...
Smocking in the Stocking
12:44
To paraphrase a Few Good Men, "You WANT me in that Hall.  You NEED me in that Hall!

To be serious, while I'm not advocating for Baines in particular, can you comment on the average threshold at a position for the HOF, and how it changes with time?  If one only ever deems Hall-worthy a player with credentials above the average of those already included, the average will ratchet up over time, raising the bar for future players and making past selections look dumb.  So we need HOFers with below average credentials ... right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
One of the primary goals of JAWS is to raise or at least maintain the standards of the Hall of Fame by advocating for players who do so. As we have seen, below-average players by those standards still get through, and I'm not just talking about forehead slappers like Baines and Jim Rice.

Even via the writers, recent honorees such as Craig Biggio, Vlad Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman and John Smoltz are short of the JAWS standards at their positions (Biggio's time catching and Smoltz's time in the bullpen hurt their numbers there, though both were otherwise otherwise obvious choices over which I have no dispute; JAWS has always struggled with relievers but Hoffman's second in WPA; Vlad's defensive numbers weren't good despite his legendary arm strength), which isn't to say that they're bad choices, just that voters have had, and will continue to have, reasons besides my stat to vote for them.
carrotjuice
12:52
Encarnacion has just been traded to Mariners via Jeff Passan
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Sir Nerdlington
12:53
Why do teams pass up making a Rule 5 pick when they have an open roster spot?  It's a 50k "gamble" where it doesn't take a lot to make that back.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Good question, worth asking Kiley or Eric. I'd guess that one reason is because they feel they've got a better shot of adding value with the odd waiver pickup this time of year than with an R5 guy who has so many restrictions attached to his roster spot
Xolo
12:56
Can you explain this Encarnacion for Santana trade to me?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
Santana offers familiarity and a better glove at first base. Might mean Cleveland trades Yonder Alonso, who was a disappointment last year.
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