JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/15/20

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Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon and welcome to my first chat in [mumbles] weeks. I've been busy with my annual Hall of Fame series and just a few minutes ago the first entry in my One-and-Done set, covering outfielders Shane Victorino and Michael Cuddyer, went live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-one-...

2:03

You can see the full schedule here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-of-your-own-and..., and find a link to our Crowdsource Hall of Fame ballot, which allows registered users to vote for up to 10 candidates, just like the pros.

2:05

I'd also like to call your attention to my spot with Shakeia Taylor on last week's FanGraphs Audio podcast, where we discussed the life of Dick Allen, and the racism and other obstacles he encountered during his career https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-reflecting-on-dick-allen/

And since it's been awhile, I'd like to wish those of you out there celebrating a Happy Hanukkah. I hope your latkes are as good as the ones in the Jaffe-Span household.

2:06

Ok, on with the show

Bart

2:06

Any more news about baseball season may be 140 games and start in May per owners

Jay Jaffe

2:08

There's not a whole lot of news yet because the league and the union haven't formally begun discussions. All we're seeing is the run-up to that, as the sides stake out their opening positions via the media. If you're like me, I'm sure you can't wait to learn that neither commissioner Rob Manfred nor union exec director Tony Clark actually learned a damn thing from last year's vitriolic public back-and-forth.

2:09

But beyond that i think it's going to be awhile before we have any real grasp on what the 2021 season will look like because the situation in this country is such a mess with respect to surging COVID-19 rates and the reality that the vaccine could take most of the year to circulate throughout the population.

David

2:09

If owners want to make taking the vaccine a requirement to spring training, shouldn't the MLBPA use that a negotiation tool to get something they want back, something big?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

Well, that presupposes that MLB is going to cut the line when it comes to vaccine distribution. After the league failed to make good on most of its pledges to contribute to public health — the New York Daily News' Bradford William Davis (@_beewilly on Twitter) has the receipts — I don't think that's going to go over well.

2:12

Knowing that they may not get full ballparks all year, the owners clearly have enough reason to delay the start of the season and shorten the schedule while hoping they can get players vaccinated. I do expect it will be a requirement in there somewhere.

John

2:12

The initial results on HOF voting seem to lead to a conclusion that no one will be elected this year but that Helton and Rolen will move into Vizquel territory with schilling losing votes.

Jay Jaffe

2:14

We've seen 36 published ballots so far, less than 10% of the expected total, so I think it's too early to conclude that nobody will be elected. I'd guess that it's Schilling or bust, though, since nobody else is close enough to make the kind of jump that usually pushes players past 75%.

Which ain't a lot of fun, alas.

Elmo's Other Song

2:15

Do Hall of Fame voters get any information (beyond a blank ballot) about the players? Or are the expected to know the case for and against each candidate?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

The packet comes with a sheet showing last year's results and noting how many years of eligibility have lapsed for each player. The Hall's website is supposed to contain short bios of each candidate but damned if I can find them at a moment's notice right now.

The real research (if any) is up to the individual voter.

Chamaco

2:17

Great piece on Gary Sheffield. While he was not a great defensive player, he played 17 of 22 seasons in the NL, which had no DH option for him. Since he had to play somewhere in the field, and his defensive position was determined by his manager/team, would all of that warrant a reconsideration of the impact of his defensive numbers on his career WAR and JAWS? Seems like if he spent his career in the AL as a DH (like Edgar Martinez), his HOF case might be viewed differently.

Jay Jaffe

2:21

Thanks. I discussed this a bit with Baseball America's JJ Cooper via Twitter yesterday

Stuck in neutral for his first five years on the ballot, Gary Sheffield saw a big jump in support in 2020, but he still has a ways to go. Does he have a realistic shot at the Hall? And is he worthy of a bronze plaque? @jay_jaffe goes deep on his case. blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2…

and with multiple voters last year. I can certainly see granting Sheffield some leeway regarding WAR/JAWS given that the matter of DHing was largely out of his control for a good chunk of his career, and that his defensive metrics are so extreme that it's worth comparing them via other systems.

FWIW, Shef was on my virtual ballot for the first time last year and is likely to wind up on my actual one this year.

Curtis

2:22

How many HOFers have a similar "late start" story like Edgar Martinez?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Hoyt Wilhelm didn't debut until he was 29, while Jackie Robinson and Iron Joe McGinnity didn't do so until they were 28; both had parallels in terms of players who arrived late due to the color line or their playing in advantageous minor league situations.

Guest

2:24

Happy holiday of your choosing and best wishes for the coming new year from the guy who likes to needle you about Pete Alonso & service time manipulation but respects your opinions about other things.

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Thank you, and likewise.

Not Bob Nightengale I Promise

2:24

How many top-50 free agents do you think the Mets end up with?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

Probably four if you're counting Stroman. McCann's signed, and I'd expect Springer plus another starting pitcher but perhaps not Bauer if they do get Springer.

Justin

2:27

Absolutely crazy to me that Billy Wagner doesn't get more love.

Jay Jaffe

2:28

His career is shorter than any of the enshrined closers, but he did jump to 31.7% last year, nearly doubling his support. That's not nothing and I'd expect his share to continue to increase.

45 blows billygoats

2:28

Given a full season, and considering injury history, how many IP do you see them giving Sixto this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

It's so tough to make predictions like this because of the aforementioned likelihood that we don't get a 162-game season and the lack of insight into how teams plan to handle such situations. Sanchez threw just 47 innings last year including playoffs. I'd be surprised if he went far past 120, regardless of season length right now.

Pat

2:31

Thinking of race relations & society & media treatment, not only of Dick Allen, but, Sheffield...does that help explain some of the 70's/80's flame outs/substance abuse of guys like Parker, Bobby Bonds, Templeton, Wilson, Blue, etc? Something I'd never considered before, but, sure seems like their was likely a lack of support for minorities during that time period.

Jay Jaffe

2:37

I think we need to be careful not to generalize. The issues that Allen and Sheffield faced were different ones due to their timing and surrounding circumstances, not to mention their individual makeups. The guys that you mention, whose careers took place in between those two, have in common the fact that they arrived in the majors at a different time and were subject to different pressures — the widespread availability of cocaine in the late '70s and '80s, for example, and the game's nascent drug policy — but I'd avoid lumping them together beyond that. They each had their own circumstances and personalities.

Ariel White

2:38

What message is a writer sending to victims of abuse (if they vote for) or the writers (it they elect) a player like Bonds or Jones? What message is being sent to young people who are on the edge of darkness and are on the verge of potentially committing abuse themselves.

What message is a writer sending to young trans or muslim baseball fans if they for (or the writers if they elect) a player like Schilling? What message are they sending to young people on the verge of hate?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

This is a good question that deserves more than an offhand answer in a chat, but I think any conscientious voter has to wrestle with these questions and whether s/he is in fact "sending a message" by evaluating what a player did on a baseball field.

Curtis

2:42

Having never been to the actual Baseball Hall of Fame, what is the one thing that stood out to you most? or perhaps the thing that surprised you the most?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

That it's far more than the plaques and the annual debates over who belongs. It's a quality museum that has its charms and its quirks. Some of it feels a bit dated but their recent exhibits — the Whole New Ballgame one covering the 1970s onward, and the baseball card one — have some very cool, eye-opening stuff.

David

2:44

Happy Hanukkah! Do you think there will be extended playoffs this year? I hope not but manfred seems determined

Jay Jaffe

2:45

I expect we'll get something more than the 2012-19 format but less than the 2020 one, and that I'll probably hate it.

and thanks/back at you for the Hanukkah wishes!

Chris

2:46

In a recent column, Buster Olney said Madison Bumgarner was a "no-doubt Hall of Famer." Is that true considering he has 36.5 career bWar and 30.7 career fWar and looks pretty close to cooked?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

woof. Swing and a miss from Buster there.

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