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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/15/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I'm well aware of Sheryl's position on Bonds et al., and I respect it as well as the opinions of many others who have spoken up on the subject. Being a Hall of Fame voter comes with an ironclad guarantee that you won't be able to please all of the people all of the time, and figuring out how to weigh non-baseball matters in the voting is one of the challenges that comes with the privilege of voting.
chris’s aunt netty
3:28
If dick Allen makes it, does Albert Belle?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
No. Different circumstances.
Cube Jockey
3:28
Thirty years from now, there will probably be another 10-15 metro areas large enough to support an expansion team.  Is there a limit to the number of teams MLB could field that would make it too unwieldy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
'Color me very skeptical about that number.
(10-15 metro areas large enough to support an expansion team)
Guest
3:28
I'm sure you've written about this, but how did you end up with the HOF as your niche?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
Gonna do a piece on the road to getting my ballot probably sometime in early January.
turtle
3:29
is there any breakdown on the amount of money each year going to position players vs pitchers? Not scientific obviously but it feels as if position players are the ones loosing money and pitchers are for the most part not loosing money in free agency. We still see a lot of money being given to bad starting pitchers. I wonder how much of the supression of free agency money is being driven by the glut of 1-2 war hitters teams have been able to produce.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
This is a question probably better directed towards Craig Edwards, who tracks payrolls and free agency more closely than I do.
Will
3:30
As a HOF expert and just all around smart guy have you ever thought about baseball in the historical context? Professional sports are relatively new in the big picture. What are the odds people care about baseball in 100 years? In 200? Aside from societal collapse, what are the odds baseball is something like madrigals or opera or horse racing that has a definitive window and then becomes niche or worse?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
I think about it in the historical context often, and admittedly right now it's fair to wonder whether all this stuff will matter even 50 or 100 years from now given the disaster-in-progess of climate change.
Guest
3:32
Will news about the desire to play a shortened schedule next year push any free agents to sign deals for smaller amounts and at an earlier point in the off-season than they would have otherwise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
Eh, maybe leads to some quicker one-year deals but I don't think it will have a huge effect on the market. Players and agents understand that "news" about schedule length is designed to create leverage for owners.
Montgomery Noodleton
3:34
would the blue jays ever trade bo, even for carrasco and lindor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
Doubt it
unless they're getting a significant long-term piece back as well
Matt V
3:35
Taken together your pieces and Jones and Sheffield have me wondering anew about the vexed question of evaluating defense. Clearly these evaluations still need to come with a grain of salt, especially when they produce extreme impacts. Has your sense of the default size of this grain changed at all, or is it remaining pretty consistent?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
I think we're destined to remain somewhat stuck in terms of historical evaluations based on the amount of data we have (play-by-play, batted ball, statcast). There's always going to be some margin for error to be accounted for, but having more methodologies and seeing how close their answers are when it comes to measuring defensive ability can help
Ariel White
3:37
Why isn't San Juan discussed as a potential spot for a team? Puerto Rico has such a rich baseball culture that I'm surprised people don't at least throw around the name as a possibility a bit more.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
I love the idea but realistically think it's a very long shot. San Juan got a long look when the Expos played there in their final two seasons, but it needs a new ballpark and probably statehood as well to support the investment. MLB isn't going to put an expansion team in a place that isn't overflowing with reason$$$$ to put it there.
Alex
3:40
I've wondered about this regarding Vizquel, but it can be extrapolated. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that a given player possesses elite defense, isn't it the case that three true outcomes baseball diminishes the value of said skill? This feels even more true for infielders, since no one wants to hit the ball on the ground anymore.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
There's something to that. In bWAR, pitchers share less credit with their defenses on balls in play, and the batted ball distributions are factored into the way that credit is doled out.
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