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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –12/17/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
That's a fun question to contemplate. I wonder what Dan Szymborski would project!
12:48
I'll say "no" but only because he'd get tired running around the bases so often.
Uncle Spike
12:48
Tell us something interesting about members of the Fangraphs staff.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Davy Andrews is an excellent baker! Michael Baumann spends more time talking about college baseball than the folks at Baseball America! Jon Becker has amazing spreadsheets! I can't share too much more without violating the staff omerta though.
Third Base Standings
12:53
With the election of Rolen, Beltre, and (now) Allen, is third base better and more fully represented in the Hall than it was before? Or does work need to be done still?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
That's an improvement but there are still only 18 non-Negro Leagues/Black baseball third basemen, compared to 23 shortstops and 29 right fielders, which is the non-pitcher high. More work to be done
Phil
12:55
Why do you think there seems to be so much divergence in opinion about Triston Casas? I thought you stats guys loved walk-taking power guys, but Dan S. seemed unimpressed, and folks have opined about the rumored Casas for Castillo trade as being lopsided in both directions, which seems paradoxical.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I really don't know, unless it's the subpar defensive metrics that have limited his value. I'd love to see Casas get a full major league season together; he seems like a good building block, but sometimes I have no idea what the Red Sox are doing when it comes to position players. I thought, for example, that Connor Wong's defensive shortcomings made keeping Kyle Teel an obvious choice but I guess they wanted Crochet more, and i get that.
StiebTea
12:58
As starter usage and expectations continue to change, do you think career evaluations will continue shifting toward peak weight and away from longevity? I know in the past you have stressed the seven year peak ... might that shorten? (Is it already?) I promise this is not a disguised King Felix question ... but I guess it kind of is ....
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I think that's probably the way it's going to go, at least in part. Gonna spend some time on this in February, I think (not that it will necessarily see the light of day).
Mike Ortman
12:59
As more and more players from the Cooperstown Casebook are elected, I feel like a part two is more and more needed, with a second wave of essays on worthy candidates. Do you see that happening and when?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I would really like to do a second edition and certainly have a storehouse of candidates and topics, but finding the time to write it is one issue and finding a publisher is another. It is possible that I might pursue a self-published approach but ... I have some research and logistical obstacles to figure out, among other things.
Phil
1:02
Regarding the entertainment factor, where would you rank the jerk-nice guy spectrum as an HOF criterion? I have been surprised to see some stuff out there about Suzuki in this regard, but I guess he could be pretty curt with beat writers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
99.9% of the time, that stuff shouldn't matter, and airing it says more about the person complaining than the player. Oh, Ichiro — the most in-demand player of his time, media-wise, and in need of a translator — didn't answer your every inane question?
1:05
That said, I do understand that a writer might bear a grudge if a player lied to them about something important. A whole lot of the PED-related grievances among the electorate come from that point of view, and likewise some of the resistance to Beltán.
Adam
1:07
Do you see the Phillies shaking up the roster like they said they would? I always see bohm tossed around as a trade piece, but what do you actually see them doing this offseason? They can’t possibly plan to run it back again…
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
I'd be surprised if it's extensive but Bohm's name has been tossed around enough that I bet he gets moved. The move I would make would be to send Nick Castellanos anda truck full of cash to wherever will take him because he's largely been a disaster (net 1.4 WAR in 3 years). Cody Bellinger would make sense here, huge outfield defense upgrade and doesn't need to be the lineup centerpiece.
Guest
1:10
As Andrew Jones continues his increasingly likely ascent to Cooperstown, how likely do you think a revisiting of Jim Edmonds’s case
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
As I tried to convey in the Félix Hernández article, you absolutely should not hold your breath waiting for your pet one-and-done guy to get on an Era Committee ballot because the Historical Overview Committee isn't gonna save them, in all likelihood. Ted Simmons is the only one to go that route and get in. Lou Whitaker has been on one ballot and was left off the next one despite a solid showing. Bobby Grich, David Cone, Dave Stieb, no love. Johan Santana isn't even eligible until 2029, don't wait up. Edmonds will be eligible in 2026 but there's no way on God's green earth he's going to find room when Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield, Schilling, and Kent are all likely to be on there.
Mike M.
1:17
Following Manfred's lead, the BBWA gives one HOF voter a "golden vote" which allows you to write in one name for automatic induction into HOF. Who's got your golden vote?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
I'd have to think about this for longer but my knee-jerk answer is Barry Bonds
Fally
1:18
Does Cody Bellinger have negative trade value?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
Not negative but the opt-out clause complicates things greatly.
SKip
1:18
Silly question but does being active for 10 years to be Hall eligible mean you just have to play one game in during the season? If a guy came up and pulled a Steve Nebraska one time a year for a decade is he eligible for the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
One game counts as a year for Hall purposes but there's still so much gatekeeping in building the ballots that nobody with 9 years + 1 game is getting on there unless it's an elite player and an extreme circumstance (think of the Mike Trout hit by a bus example)
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
1:23
Did you do a HOF update on Chris Sale that I missed? Seems like he's almost but not quite there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
I covered him in this year's roundup (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2024-progress-rep...) and have mentioned him in passing since, but I do see him as back on the radar. He's now at 53.4/41.7/47.5, which puts him tied with Tommy John for 76th,  one spot below Orel Hershiser, seven below Johan Santana, six above Andy Pettite, and 21 above Félix Hernández (3.4 points behind). If the latter had his line, he'd really have made my life much easier, would be an easy vote, and as it is, I'd probably tab Sale if he came up for election with his CURRENT body of work. He's the short-career, high-peak template in my mind right now.
Mike Ortman
1:28
Jay give us an update on your top ten Outsiders as it stands now. I’m sure Dick Allen was high on that list.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
This looks a lot like a January column!
Theo be Praised
1:28
Cubs are pursuing Jesus Luzardo, which would give them 4 left-handed starters in the rotation.  Conceptually, is that a problem?  Or does starter handedness not really matter at that macro level like it would in bullpen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Eh, maybe a bit, but not a huge one. Get good pitchers and the rest will sort itself out.

Also it would be great to have Jesus Luzardo and the Jesus Lizard (whom I saw last week on their latest reunion tour; they still slay) in the same city.
Chip
1:30
Hey Jay - on a recent EW episode, a listener (Michael Mountain, maybe?) came on and discussed his WAA-based version of JAWS, which he named BOOG. I am curious if you heard about this/listened to it, and your thoughts. As a peak-over-career guy, it intrigues me
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
I didn't hear it — I don't have much bandwidth for podcasts, and I don't have much bandwidth for most things this time of year. I've piddled around briefly with WAA but it correlates so highly with WAR7 (about .8 for the top 100, and 87 for the top 300 when it comes to starting pitchers) that it seems like there would be less gained and more lost by changing — I still get people who think I'm using best 5 consecutive for peak which is why I have come to not mind the "WAR7" tag.
1:37
forgot to add that my correlation test there was for starting pitchers, which is really where it might be of use. I did look at Félix's WAA; he's 111th there all-time, vs. 115th in WAR.
1:38
Maybe in January i'll check that podcast out though, I don't want to dismiss it without hearing him out.
Captainjameshook
1:38
sorry we never linked up at Double Windsor before we bought a house and moved to rva but hope you’re digging the neighborhood!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:40
aw, drat! I went for lunch there last month with Graig Kreindler, the great baseball painter, and I got spotted by another baseball-loving bartender. That was funny.

Anyway, digging the neighborhood. Hope your move goes well, too!
1:44
On the subject of lunch, it's about that time for me, so I'm going to wind this up.

1) As you plot your holiday gift-giving, please keep a FanGraphs membership in mind for the baseball fans in your life (https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/).

2) The store where I signed copies of The Cooperstown Casebook can no longer reliably get them (the book is out of print) but I do have some bookplates that I can send. Hit me up on Bluesky (@jayjaffe.bsky.social) and we'll sort it out.

3) No chat from me either of the next two weeks due to holidays but I'll be churning out profiles right up until next week and probably one (plus MY BALLOT) during the otherwise dark/best-of week here.
1:46
Thanks for stopping by, and please enjoy your Xmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Festivus/New Year's Eve celebrations  responsibly!
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