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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/20/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hey folks and welcome to the last pre-Xmas version of my FanGraphs chat for the year. Lots of questions in the hopper already so let's get to it...
Scott
12:02
Does Baines’ election open the door for Nick Markasis in Cooperstown?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I suppose it's possible 30 years down the road, but I think people are misunderstanding the ramifications of Baines' election. By and large, the BBWAA voters, who as a group rejected Baines at a 94-95% clip five times, aren't going to take a crony-driven bag job as something that represents a new standard, and just elect any player who gives 3,000 hits a run but falls short. if Markakis gets there, he'll likely be the least decorated player to do so, and it will be interesting to see how voters react, but when we've got 8x Gold Glovers being ignored, I have a hard time imagining such a relatively un-decorated player getting in.
Nate
12:06
What chances do you see Tulo going to the Pirates?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I think there are several teams looking into the possibility of signing Tulo. Given his California ties and the fact that they made the playoffs last year, I'd put more money on the A's landing Tulo than the Pirates. Then again, if a team like Pittsburgh can offer him a clearer path to 500 PA (as if his body can cooperate), maybe there's something there.
Dan
12:09
How widely known is it that there's a whole museum that is separate from the actual Hall at the HOF? Lots of coverage doesn't make that clear, and I think it influences people's opinions on who should be voted in.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
well, the full name is the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and I think people understand it's full of artifacts and photos of the game's history, but that sometimes gets lost in the debates. I wrote a bit about this at the end of The Cooperstown Casebook — I went up there in February 2016, the deadest spot on the baseball calendar, to do some final research and spent four wonderful days there, communing with the plaques in complete solitude and reacquainting myself with the rest of the museum, which really is a lot of fun to walk through without worrying about JAWS and PEDs and all of the controversies that surround the voting.
Alex K
12:12
Would Gary Sheffield own a better Cooperstown case had he played at DH?  Also, some argue we shouldn't punish Gary for playing the field as the manager's made him do it, any thoughts on considering how managers used players for HoF consideration?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
A first-time voter asked me to look into this. The problem is that Shef spent 2/3 of his career in the NL, where the DH wasn't an option, so you'd have to imagine a much different career for him. Maybe starting with one where the Brewers weren't ignoring his claims that he was injured (he was sent down while complaining of a foot injury that turned out to be a fracture) and subjecting him to non-random drug tests because of uncle Dwight Gooden's problems.

Anyway, for Shef's NYY/Detroit career his WAR is about the same as it would have been if he'd been doing full-time DH duty. Of more interest is looking at alternate defensive metrics, such as DRA (used at the Baseball Gauge, and part of the SABR Defensive Index for the Gold Gloves voting), which don't view his fielding numbers as an outlier to the same extent. That would improve his JAWS by about 5 points, though I haven't gone ahead and checked to see how he would stack up vs. other RF using the same methodology.
Warts, iron glove and all, I'd take Gary Sheffield in my lineup and in the Hall of Fame any day over Harold Baines.
Gerard
12:19
do  you think that the Dodgers will land either Kluber or Harper
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Given their surpluses of starting pitching and outfielders, I would be surprised if they didn't come away with one of the two this winter, and I suppose it's possible they land both, if, say, they were to use Puig, Verdugo and Wood as pieces in a Kluber deal.
Mark
12:20
Does Harold Baines’ election stain the HOF permanently, and what steps should be taken to ensure something like this never happens again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Oh please. The Old Timers' Committee election of like 21 players in 1945-1946 and the Veterans Committee selections from the Frisch/Terry years put in many players who are every bid as questionable as Baines. The Hall will survive this so long as BBWAA voters understand that the worst errors do not constitute the baseline for new standards.
BrewCrewHullabaloo
12:22
Joe Mauer, Hall of Famer? I say yes but read on how he did not catch enough and his teams sucked in the postseason. I think those arguments are lame.
AvatarJay Jaffe
Alby
12:23
Why do we insist on calling it "pitch framing" instead of "blown calls by the ump"? Is there any evidence that individual catchers have more to do with this "skill" than the umpires do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
Because of the way he's positioned and the limitations of human neuroprocessing, it is impossible for the home plate umpire to see the pitch travel the entire path from the pitcher's hand to the glove — at some point, around the margins it's educated guesswork, and some umpires are better than others.. Expecting perfection is a fool's errand. Are you a fool?

And yes, I do believe that the folks at Baseball Prospectus (and probably elsewhere) have controlled for umpires in their models to show that this is a skill of certain catchers. Might be worth digging up Mike Fast's old articles and/or asking somebody like BP's Jonathan Judge for guidance if you want to see the numbers.
Nelson
12:27
Will Lee smith be the last Expo to get in to the hall ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I'd like to think this surge of support for Larry Walker bodes well in terms of small committees (FWIW, Tony La Russa gushed about him). So I don't think the books are closed on the Expos
Rockie Dangerfield
12:28
What if another group decided to open its own baseball hall of fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
They could certainly try, but there's almost certainly no way in hell that MLB would cooperate/subsidize them to the extent that they do the current Hall. You think guys are just gonna start sending memorabilia to a startup Hall that doesn't have the league's blessing?
Jeff
12:31
Love the HoF series. How does Carlos Beltran stack?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I think by the time he's eligible in 2023, he'll be in very good shape. he's got great traditional and advanced stats to his name, including a stellar postseason reputation and the number 9 ranking in JAWS among CF.
Craig Kimbrel
12:32
What do you think the chances are I get into the hall som
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
You and Kenley jansen both need to make sure that 2018 isn't the beginning of the end. See https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-po...
Alex K
12:33
What do you think of the chances of Bobby Abreu?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Completely and totally screwed. Criminally underappreciated during his career (2 All-Star games). Good-not-great advanced stats (he's just 20th in JAWS, below all 3 standards but at least close on peak). Will get less than 5%.

JAWS has Shef a bit lower (23rd, with a gap of 1.5 points between the two) but if I had one spot on my ballot for the two, he'd get it because of the extent to which we might question those defensive numbers.
BrewCrewHullabaloo
12:36
When I serve brats and sauerkraut the wife complains the kids are not getting any veggies, and I point out that sauerkraut is made of cabbage and provides vitamins B and C. Help me out here
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I mean, you can cook up a side vegetable (besides french fries) to go with it. Mustard seeds provide omega 3 fatty acids, so if you buy the right mustard I guess that would help too.
DJ Tanner
12:39
Braves have to make another move right? The NL East has gotten a lot stronger this offseason, Donaldson is great but they could use more. Why not offload a couple pitching prospects for Haniger? Fills the OF void, plus he has controllable years where he will be around with a lot of their young core.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I fully expect the Braves to make moves to address their starting pitching and right field voids. Haniger would be an interesting target, but given that he's under control through 2022 I don't think trading him is something Jerry Dipoto is planning to do unless he's bowled over.
Harold Baines
12:41
Still hate Reinsdorf Jay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Having grown up a Utah Jazz fan, I would hate him with the fire of a thousand suns just for owning the Bulls. He was a key figure in both collusion and the 1994 strike. He should be put on a rocket into the sun and force-fed packets of expired mayonnaise until it meets its destiny.
Steven
12:43
What can MLB/MLBPA do to speed up the offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
The first baseball games that matter won't be played for another 3+ months. The decisions that involve committing millions upon millions of dollars aren't actually a spectator sport. It is not on either side to "speed up" the offseason simply for entertainment purposes.
Pat's Bat
12:45
Is it possible for a HoF candidate to hurt his candidacy by playing well past his prime a la Willie Mays in a Mets uniform or Babe Ruth as a Brave?  Have any borderline candidates hurt themselves like this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Offhand I can't think of anybody that was truly hurt that much.The 5-year waiting period tends to wash away those bad memories. Think of Roberto Alomar, who looked totally cooked by the end and yet was elected with 90+% in his second year (delayed only by the spitting incident). Or Ken Griffey Jr., the record-holder for voting percentage.

It's the quick disappearances in the mid-to-late 30s that hurt a candidate far more. Ron Santo, Dick Allen, Bobby Grich, Larry Walker, etc.
carrotjuice
12:49
How close to 75% do you Larry Walker needs to get over the next two years to have a strong chance of election via the appropriate committee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Alan Trammell got above 40% for the first time in his final year on the ballot and was then hastily elected by the Modern Baseball Era Committee, so I'm guessing — guessing — that level of support, which Walker appears likely to attain this year (and perhaps above 50%) will put him in good position. Hell, Fred McGriff won't get to 40% and I think he'll be fine in front of the TGEC.
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