You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/5/23
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to a live at the Winter Meetings edition of my chat. I'm here in Nashville at the Opryland MegaBioDome monstrosity with something like a dozen of my FanGraphs colleagues. There hasn't been a ton going on transaction-wise, but it's good to be here nonetheless.
2:05
Yesterday I published my coverage of Jim Leyland's election to the Hall of Fame via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot for Managers/Executives/Umpires https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-calls-for-jim-leyland/
2:06
On Friday I had my first writeup of a new candidate on this year's BBWAA ballot, Joe Mauer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-joe-... and today I've got a look at Year 2 of Carlos Beltrán's candidacy https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-carl...
Scott
2:06
Rumors are rumors, but I don't see how Ohtani wins a WS ring if he returns to the Angels. That organization just doesn't seem to have the leadership that's needed to make it happen. Is that assessment off-base?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
No, i don't think this is off-base at all. Honestly, I find an Ohtani return to Anaheim rather implausible because their infrastructure — the roster and the DOA farm system (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings) — just isn't there in a way that suggests anything but more of the same. Whether it's the Blue Jays, Dodgers, or another team, I think he can do better elsewhere, and I have to think he believes that as well.
Travis
2:09
What’re the chances Kelenic suddenly puts it all together?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Reasonable. There was so much pressure on him in Seattle given the particulars of the trade and of being a top prospect, and the organization does not have much of a recent record of developing position players. Going to a team that's done well in that department, where he doesn't have to be more than a supporting cast member, would seem to be a welcome change. I don't think he's a strong bet to reach his 60-FV ceiling as before, but he can still be a useful player
CJ
2:14
What does Jose Ramirez have to do to solidify his HoF case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Just stay healthy and productive. He's at 45.5 career WAR/40.2 peak/42.9 JAWS Another 5-WAR season (he had 5.1 bWAR this year) would improve his peak score closer to the standard (43.1), and after that it's mostly about sticking around in a productive capacity
2:17
As I noted this summer, nearly three-quarters of all eligible position players who reach a 40.0 WAR peak score are in the Hall, and he's now hit that mark https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
Mike
2:18
Can Votto do anything on the field to hurt his HoF chances if he keeps playing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Not really. He's 0.6 WAR away from being above the standards in career/peak/WAR, even having lost 0.4 WAR though sub-replacement play in the past two years. If he somehow pulls above the standard, he'd be one of four position players above all three standards on the outside of the Hall, two of whom are newcomers to this ballot: Joe Mauer and Adrían Beltré and should gain entry sooner or later; the other is Bobby Grich.
D
2:20
How far below average JAWS do you think is a good line to draw between HOF and non-HOF player (as a general guide, of course, not as a hard and fast rule)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
To me, for position players the really interesting discussion starts at about 50 JAWS (40 for catchers). I track those totals on annual ballots as they're a better measure of overall quality than the # that clear the standards, which can shift ever so slightly from year to year depending upon who gets elected. This year we have nine such players including Mauer.
D
2:24
I am curious why JAWS averages peak and career WAR. It feels like that would lead to missing on some great players who either shone brightly briefly or whose greatness was the result of a combination of excellence and longevity.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
It's just an attempt to balance career and peak, and it's easiest to start in the middle. Some voters tend to focus more on one than the other, valuing longevity or short-career supremacy. I don't think it's unreasonable for somebody to look at a high-peak career that was curtailed (in an extreme case, for example, Thurman Munson, 2.3 points above the peak standard but 2.7 below the career standard) and conclude that he belongs in Cooperstown
MoKo
2:28
Who would you rather have for the same price: Eloy Jimenez or Jorge Soler?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Jimenez, just because he's over four years younger and might have some remaining upside if he can stay healthy
Sooooo....
2:29
The Mets actually won the Diaz/Kelenic/Cano swap...huh.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
eh, i'm not sure it's all that big a win given production and money spent.
Thomas
2:30
Of the remaining Ohtani finalists, which would you be most excited to see him sign with?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
The Dodgers, given the historical location of my allegiances. It is fascinating to think of what Ohtani could mean to a whole country if he signs with the Blue Jays though.
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy
2:32
Jay, as expected Cito Gastón fell well short of making the Hall.  If he had another 1000 or so meh games managing would that move the needle due to longevity?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Yes if he found some success in those 1,000 games
like additional playoff appearances
Sad Angels Fan
2:34
I'm trying to find some, really any, bright spots on the Angels roster. I keep coming back to Reid Detmers, who shows flashes of being lights out, and longer flashes of be very hittable. Can he be something? That K/9 is very very nice
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I think he's a useful starter and but right now he looks as advertised, a solid #4. Maybe there's a #3 in there if he can find a way to generate more whiffs
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
2:36
How do you compare catchers that you have pitch-framing data for to catchers who you do not? Brian McCann and Russell Martin might not look so great if we knew that, say, Mickey Tettleton and Lance Parrish were also great pitch framers (I picked those two because they have similar offensive WAR).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
We don't have full information, you're right. Given the time, I think where I'd start would be to see what those teams' called-strike rates are relative to their leagues. I've suggested to people who have the skills to do so to see if there's signal in the data even pre-1988 (the start of the pitch count era)
Steve
2:39
The eras committee process is broken & unnecessarily cruel to men in their 70’s & 80’s. Thoughts on this as a solution? No limit, each member simply votes “yes” or “no” on all 8. If the HOF is concerned about induction classes being too large, then cap the number selected in any year at 3, regardless of how many cross 75%. This way, it remains an exclusive honor  yet still slightly unclogs the bottleneck. What do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
It's not a bad idea. I'd like to think about that one some more. Regardless of my own feelings on, say, Lou Piniella (whom I think is just below the cut where Leyland was just above), it's absolutely gutting to see him go through two near-misses, and thinking aboiut Dick Allen in this context makes me want to throw a garbage can through a window
Carlos Beltran
2:42
Really enjoyed your HOF piece on him. I was reminded of how Beltran agreed to stay with the Royals for three years and $25 million, but David Glass insisted on $24 million, and Beltran just walked away from negotiating. Obviously there is not enough time for you to recount every stupid thing the Royals did under Glass, but that was a doozy.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
We could sit here all day and talk about the mistakes the Royals have made in handling talented young players. As somebody said to me at dinner the other night, just think of how good Bobby Witt Jr. has to be to succeed despite the org's track record in such matters.
Nashville Resident
2:44
When are we getting a MLB franchise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Nashville seems to be a plausible option. I'd guess we're looking at something like 2027 for the expansion teams to start play
Effaj Yaj
2:46
Does Seattle try to make a splash in FA after clearing up space? I'm confused why they would include Kelenic in a salary dump otherwise.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
considering that they also traded Suarez and his $11.2 million salary I'd say this what Mariners fans should hope is happening and if it doesn't, they have my permission to start throwing trash cans through windows.
2:50
(our lawyer tells me this is merely for illustrative purposes and is not an action I can endorse)
Trout
2:50
Aw man I thought I was gonna get to play in Philly
Load More Messages
Connecting…