JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/5/23

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Jay Jaffe

2:50

If I had to guess on whether Trout gets to be a Phillie at some point in his career, I'd say there's a strong likelihood.

Chester

2:51

Where do u think Yamamoto signs?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

One of the New York teams, or the Dodgers if they miss on Ohtani.

Ben

2:52

If Blake Snell somehow has the same achievements in his 30s as his 20s and ended his career with 4 Cy Youngs, but only 42 WAR, is he a Hall of Famer? Other than Clemens, everyone with 3 Cy Young awards either is or will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, although Koufax at 49 has the lowest WAR of those.

Jay Jaffe

2:53

Probably yes given the dearth of other starting pitching candidates coming down the road after the big four (Kershaw et al). It's Cole and maybe Nola if he gets his career back on track and... pray for someone else to join them.

Bandit

2:54

With Chourio in the fold, do the Brewers look to shop Garrett Mitchell? He impressed in his brief debut, seems like an obvious move to patch up the rotation?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

I think they do eventually but not immediately. If Chourio makes the team and if he gets through his early months ok, then that becomes more likely. Mitchell's value won'd decrease by much if he's traded with 4 1/2 years of control remaining instead of 5

David

2:57

The dodgers desperately need starting pitching. Do you think they’ll fill the holes through trade or free agency?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Probably both. Wouldn't surprise me if they're in on Burnes (to answer a question somebody else posted) or Cease, depending on how their free agent moves shake out

Well-Beered Englishman

2:58

For the FG crew at Winter Meetings, what % is this a reporting trip and what % just, like, having staff meetings and talking about the site and getting to hang out with your colleagues?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

In a situation like this one, with much less going on transaction-wise than most years, and with both Meg and David absent from last year's meetings for various reasons (and no meetings for two years prior to that), we're doing a lot of bonding and catching up. It really is a fun group to spend time with

Sirras

3:00

Settling in nicely after the move?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Yes, thank you. Was a whirlwind couple of weeks to get our new-old house into livable shape in time to leave our daughter in the care of my mother-in-law but we've gotten a lot done. That said, my office is going to be a sea of boxes and crates for a long while

3:02

How responsive will HoF voters be in adjusting their pitching expectations? We have the big-4 who will get in, then a few interesting cases in their 30s. But there isn't really a pitcher in their 20s that jumps out as being on a HoF track, while several 20-something bats seem to be.

Jay Jaffe

3:03

it's gonna take awhile, i think. I mean, right now it's tough to even foresee who the test cases are after Sabathia and the big four (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke, not necessarily in that order).

I'm going to think a bit more about Pettitte and Buehrle before I finalize my ballot this year

Clara

3:04

I very much feel that there should be more starting pitchers in the hall of fame. If you agree, what cusp-y pitcher do you feel has the strongest case?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

it's tough to choose but I did profile a bunch in brief a couple years ago just before the lockout ended. The list includes Ferrell, Tiant, Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Kevin Brown, Saberhagen.

Zach

3:05

Since there only appear to be a couple of teams in on Ohtani, is the lack of activity strange? Do you think it's because the teams in on Ohtani are also major players in the other big free agents?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

yeah that's part of it

Jax

3:05

If Mark Buehrle's plethora of iconic moments occurred in Yankees/Red Sox uniform would he have already been inducted?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

No because then he'd be Andy Pettitte, who hasn't made much more headway than Buehrle

Guest

3:08

Any rumors on Jung Hoo Lee? Any chance the Royals go for it and pair him up the middle and atop the order with Witt Jr.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

We've heard the Mets are interested but so are at least 19 other teams. Not sure why on God's green earth he'd pick the Royals over most of them given that their path to competitiveness is longer

Jonny

3:11

What to make of Eric Fedde, who flopped in MLB but then absolutely crushed in KBO for one year?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I can't say I know what to make of him but I know Eric Longenhagen has thoughts and will post them when he signs. Mets and White Sox are said to be the most interested.

Refugee

3:11

When all the FanGraphers (FanGraphites? FanGraphese?) get together, is there anything you like to do as a group?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Eat well. We have some great staff dinners every year at the restaurants of, like James Beard award winners, and the one we had last night was an all-timer

FanGraphians?

Vet Committee SNAFU

3:15

To begin, full congrats to Jim Leyland. Great manager, great case for the Hall, deserves it strongly.

That said, really disappointed in Pinella and Bill White juuuust missing out. I know that the new/latest set up of the Committees was a reaction to so many members getting in a few years ago, but I really wish they hadn't made it a full on battle royale in voting, and that there was a MUCH greater emphasis on the Hall voting in players, managers, execs while they're actually alive. You'd think they'd care more about that, given the inherent value in having everyone return for induction weekend every summer...

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Agreed.

Pirates Rally Train

3:15

Appreciate your detailed biography of Jim Leyland. I attendance quite a few of games growing up in the Pittsburgh area in the early 90’s and he was a fun manager to watch when they had a competitive team. Any thoughts which team should be on his HOF plaque? The Pirates, Tigers and Marlins would seem to be different milestones of his career.

Jay Jaffe

3:17

to me the Tigers are obvious given that he also spent his playing career in their minor league chain. But he said yesterday he wasn't going to make the choice himself:

“I’m going to discuss that with the committee and take their advice on that,” he said. “I managed several teams and I don’t want to disrespect any team I managed. I’m hoping the Hall will help me along with that. Possibly I’ll go with no logo. That's a bridge we'll cross later.

“The one thing I won’t do, I won’t show disrespect to any team I managed.”

Allow me to go out on a limb and suggest that it won't be the Rockies

WinTwins0410

3:18

Jay, I agree with Steve above about the HoF eras committee process being broken and incredibly cruel to men in their 70s and 80s (I've commented here before that I think the Hall can be cruel). Can I ask you this, though: this year, you didn't write much on the composition of the committee, and that's fine. But I took a close look at this year's committee, and it was odd -- if I'm not mistaken, I think there was only one manager (Torre) on the committee. How does that make any sense? This eras committee had HoF players but only one HoF manager evaluating a ballot that was half managers. Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

I didn't get a chance to write about the composition of the committee due to time and fewer blatantly obvious connections. Unfortunately the pool of HOF managers to judge HOF managerial candidates isn't a large one these days. Both Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa have been in ill health, for example, and Whitey Herzog is 92. Every other HOF manager besides Torre has already gone to the great dugout in the sky.

Sirras

3:22

What would deGrom have to do to earn your Hall of Fame vote should he find his way to the ballot?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I think I probably need to see him get to about 2,500 innings and 60 WAR unless he wins another Cy Young or something

Brian Cashman

3:23

If I trade for Soto, what are the odds I sign him long term?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

before he hits free agency? Probably close to zero. After? maybe 1 in 4. This is scientifically determined and in no way represents a wild-ass guess, nu-uh nope.

Henrick

3:25

I know you're on the record as saying Wright is not a HOFer. Any chance you'll include him on your ballot to try to keep his head above water another year? He has to be a better candidate than Buerhle, Hunter, Pettite, and Rollins!

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