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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 12/9/19
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Overbearing Padre
10:46
Where can the Padres find another quality bat to pair with Pham?
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:46
on the left side of their infield, with full, representative seasons from Machado and Tatis.
The Presumption of Backne
10:47
Next year we have the 10-yr cycle veterans committees. 1. Do you see any meaningful ways the long cycle could affect the way the VC approaches things?
2. Besides good analytics picks you've pushed like Allen/Minoso and Dahlen/Glasscock, any wild cards you'd think might get inducted? I would think Ken Boyer or Doc Adams, myself.
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:49
I don't think Boyer has much of a chance in a field that includes Allen and Miñoso. More likely is Tony Oliva, who like Allen missed by one vote last time, on the 2015 Golden Era ballot. Doc Adams is an interesting candidate but he doesn't have a chance unless you've got some real historians on that committee.
Alex
10:49
Do you think Ryu will have trouble getting more than 2-3 fully guaranteed years because of his lengthy injury history and age?
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:51
I think it's more likely he gets 3-4 with the risk built into the total dollar value. Whatever the current equivalent of the Rich Hill 3/$48M deal is, which might just be like 3/$51M
RO
10:52
Any advice for someone on the job hunt who’s proved themselves at affiliates with promotions for the past 3 seasons and a litany or references, yet gets rejected for full time opportunities left and right
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:53
Having never sought a job with a team, I'm no help at all but I wish you luck. Kiley McDaniel or Eric Longenhagen surely can help you more in this area.
Stan
10:57
What do you think Didi Gregorius will get, and who are/should be the most interested teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:58
The Reds, if they fancy themselves contenders, could use an upgrade as they're dead last in our projections via Freddy Galvis as the incumbent.
Steven
10:59
I'm looking at Nolan Arenado's BB Ref page. Is he on a HOF path? I know the old adage of "You make the HOF in your 30s" but he's already right near the average peak JAWS score and could hit that average mark with another couple seasons at his recent pace, both age-30 and before.
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:00
I'd say he's on a HOF path but longevity and the Coors factor will still present obstacles. He's got an outstanding highlight reel to go with the defensive metrics but he's going to have to stay productive on both sides of the ball.
Jerry Lu
11:01
Do you see Bill Dahlen and Jim McCormick, the 2 only glaringly good early time baseball players that are still currently snubbed by the Baseball Hall of Fame be successfully inducted in the Committee next year? Since we don't have too many Early Days Era Committee in the coming years, to be honest.
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:02
Again, I think it depends upon how much homework the committee members do. I'd guess that if Buck O'Neil is on that ballot he's got a much stronger chance just based on familiarity
Alex
11:02
What type of implications do you think the Ellsbury grievance has across the league if NYY prevail? Would it set a precedent for other teams (ie Orioles with C. Davis) to try the same thing even when not justified?
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:05
Well, the Ellsbury grievance is based upon unauthorized treatment at a time he was caught in an endless injury/rehab cycle. There's no way in hell anyone will be successful with a grievance for Everyday Terribleness, and PED suspensions aren't grounds for grievances and contract termination.
Alex
11:05
Which remaining unsigned free agent ends up signing for the deal that ends up shocking most fans as in “wow, I can’t believe they got that much!”
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:06
Maybe Ozuna? I think he's going to get more than $75 million.
Ben
11:06
The MVP started in 1931. Babe Ruth played until 1935. The answer to the best non-MVP player is Babe Ruth.
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:07
Ruth was MVP in 1923, at a time when the award was sporadically given out and at times there were rules that one could only win it once.
Hmmm...
11:08
If Philly signs Rendon or Didi etc, do they still have room for a Realmuto extension?
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:08
Well, those are two VERY different scenarios, potentially by hundreds of millions of dollars.
Showmeyourtatis
11:09
May I recommend you visit Crack Shack to eat lunch this week!
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:10
It might be on the FanGraphs dinner agenda, I'm not sure. We eat well, this crew.
Schmegs
11:10
When can we call a person a HOFer? When they are elected or when they are inducted?
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:12
Elected, IMO. Induction is a mere formality; some players elected during the war years didn't receive formal inductions until like 2013.
Ben
11:12
As an Orioles fan, do I have anything to look forward to this offseason/next season/the next decade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:13
Every passing year will bring you one year closer to the heat death of the universe, so you've got that going for you, which is nice.
Pat
11:13
Where do you fall on the Bill Dahlen/McCormick type candidates? Does it accomplish anything to honor them when they played 120 years ago? How do we honor someone that no one alive remembers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
11:14
I'm more convinced on Dahlen than I am McCormick but i'd much rather see the living honored, Marvin Miller and Minnie Miñoso aside.
11:15
OK folks, I'm being pulled in multiple directions right now so it's best to end this rather than leave you hanging. Thanks for dropping by, and I promise we'll do more of these in the coming weeks.
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