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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/10/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon and welcome to today's chat. As I spent the weekend in Cooperstown at the Friends of Doubleday Hot Stove Weekend event, i'm scrambling to catch up. The chat will begin in a few minutes; thank you for your patience...
12:08
OK, I'm back.
Sirras
12:08
Are you surprised that LAD somehow managed to pay both MIN and BOS more to complete this deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
they paid more but they got more, I think. Giving up Downs and Wong was trading from considerable organizational depth — they already have lots of 2B options including Lux, a top-10 prospect ready to take over, and they still have both Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz as catchers, with Wong looking more like an Austin Barnes type. Graterol works as a win-now addition in the bullpen, something that IMO they still needed to add. And if they intend to trade Joc and Stripling, they can further reconfigure.
12:12
Leaving the Angels non-deal aside, I'd say that the Dodgers paid more but in doing so also improved their 2020 roster by a larger increment than they had previously done
Nick
12:12
Any thoughts on Hinch's interview regarding sign stealing?  His decision not to expressly deny the use of buzzers was interesting, to say the least.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I didn't get to see the whole thing as I was at a social gathering as part of the aforementioned weekend but that did seem like some very carefully parsed legalese from Hinch
12:15
Still, I think it's irresponsible to deal in rumors and bullshit when it comes to this stuff. if you're going from "He didn't rip his shirt off after that homer" to "He obviously had a buzzer under there GUILTY CHEATER" then you're no better than somebody accusing a player of steroids when he hits a big homer, and really, if you're that asshole, I want nothing to do with you.
12:16
If somebody can prove the wearable stuff, which will take another Fiers-type whistleblower, then obviously that's a different story. But if you've got hearsay and innuendo, then cram it
Drunk Vince Coleman
12:16
A lot of the talk around the Angels Dodgers fall-out seems to be disbelief that the deal fell through because of Moreno's irrational reaction to the holdup, but all the reporting I've seen doesn't seem to indicate that any other factors were at play (at least as of yet).

What is harder to buy: That Moreno would actually let this go to pieces because of hurt feelings or that fans simply can't fathom that the owners that control their teams are so sensitive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
yes, I don't get this angle, and I think it's very strange except that perhaps there were second thoughts which the Angels org and they believed they'd made a bad deal. Which... I don't get, because both Joc and Stripling are handy pieces for a roster that's in the shape the Angels' is in
brad
12:17
Jay, tell me more about O'Neil Cruz, he has the power of Judge, but is more agile.  Can he keep the K's down and be an impact MLB player and at what position?  3B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I will tell you this: read the prospect experts, not me.
12:20
Here's what THE BOARD says about Cruz in their late-2019 update. I'm sure you'll get a more recent evaluation later this week. , as our Top 100 airs Wednesday
Caligula
12:20
Do you expect K-Rod to be elected into the HoF eventually?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
No. I don't see the hook given that he didn't break any records and has some pretty ugly off-field stuff tied to him.
Gyroball with sauce
12:22
Who puts up more WAR in the next 3 years, Maeda, Graterol, or Price?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
The ZiPS forecasts included in my original writeup of the trade have Maeda and Price even at 5.6 WAR over the next 3 years with Graterol at 4.5. I'd say it's a coin toss between the starters, and that if Graterol winds up going that route he's still got an innings curve to scale, so I'll go with the starter with the longer track record of success and that's Price.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-finally-score-big-by-trading-for-m...
glt4dc
12:24
Obviously, declining velocity is a concern for a starting pitcher, but how much of a year-to-year drop is a red flag?  And how (un)usual is for a pitcher like, say, Chris Sale, whose vFA declined by 2mph from '18 to '19.  But this is the 3rd time in his career when he's had a 2 mph drop and he had a good seasons in the first two "drop" seasons.  On the other hand, there was the end of Roy Halladay's career. :(
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I'd worry about 2 mph lost, but context is important. The first time Sale lost two clicks was his first year in the rotation, so obviously he had to pace himself differently. Losing 2 mph in a situation that's not accompanied by injury is also different than losing that velo due to injury, but there's still a lot we don't know. Sometimes it's a strategic decision designed to help a player improved stamina and control, in which case maybe it creeps back up. Sometimes it's an injury from which a player bounces back, which again the velo might be regained. And sometimes it's the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning, and that velo isn't coming back. We just don't know how it's going to go with Sale, but given the shoulder stuff, I'm less than full of optimism
Kevin No Maas
12:28
Who caused the deal to crater, Steve Cohen or the Wilpons?  Or will we ever know?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
absent any other bit of information it's always safe to assume that it's the Wilpons, who have a track record for screwing up — particularly when money is involved — that's longer than the Cretaceous period.
12:30
Steve Cohen didn't get to be worth $13.6 billion by not knowing what was in a deal to which he'd made a handshake agreement.
Poor Tom Ricketts
12:30
Andrew Friedman crushed in that deal. To walk away with Betts, Price, somehow Graterol, a draft pick, and they keep Pederson is some solid GMidenting. Can anyone in history match Friedman?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Friedman did well but let's see his team win at least one World Series before we start carving a place in history for him
Matt
12:32
Jay- what are your thoughts on Pete Rose's bid for reinstatement and his reasoning being that baseball didn't punish the players from the Astros (or the upcoming Red Sox)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
12:34
Pete Rose bet on baseball as a player and as a manager. It matters not whether he gambled on the Reds to win or to lose. He made his hell and he gets to stay there. https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/03/17/pete-rose-reinstatement-hall-of-fame...
George Stonebrainer
12:35
Will Tyler Wade be the backup infielder for the Yankees on opening day?  If not him, then who?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
The job of shortstop-capable backup infielder is his to lose, I think. That said, his MLB track record isn't strong at all, he has an option remaining, and if Thairo Estrada has a markedly better spring than Wade does, he could get the job. Or the Yankees could find somebody on the waiver heap, and farm both out.
James Fenimore Cooper
12:38
Can Miguel Andujar make the transition to jack of all trades in the field?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Considering that he isn't good at third base at all, and has no pro experience at other positions, then color me skeptical. He'll hit enough to be on the roster, but right now, the safe assumption is that wherever they put him he'll be a liability afield.
vin scully is a religious figure
12:42
peter gammons had a great insight about the value of stars on expirings now being set by Mookie, stating that it clearly drastically falls off with 1yr left instead of two... of stars with 2 years left, who is the most likely to be moved: Lindor, K Bryant, Thor?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
From most likely to least likely: Bryant, Lindor, Thor.
Scott
12:43
Why do so many people think the Red Sox weren't going to be a playoff-caliber team if they kept Betts? That seems to be missing from a lot of people's analysis (not Fangraphs).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Well, everything else they had done up to the point of the trade this winter was pretty unimpressive. I like Martin Perez more than most but if that's all you're doing for a rotation that has big question marks hanging over the heads of both Sale and Price, then you've got a problem. Likewise, reupping Mitch Moreland and adding Jose Peraza to a right-side of the infield where Michael Chavis could probably do a better job than either but still needs a playmate — that's not nearly enough. And that bullpen doesn't look any better than it did last year
Hailey
12:47
Thoughts on where Puig will sign?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
If I had to throw a dart, I'd say the Indians, who could really use the help, as Tyler Naquin ain't it.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:48
Re: Hinch, he was asked point blank if they used buzzers, and he plain an simply didn't say no. If there was nothing going on, OBVIOUSLY you say no. This isn't reading too much into it, or jumping to conclusion.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
This looks like a very weak and circuitous "no" to me:

"Well the Commissioner – We got investigated for three months. And the Commissioner’s office did as thorough an investigation as anyone could imagine, as possible. I mean I know you mentioned the emails, and the texts, and the messages. And I believe them."

"They didn't find anything" is not the same as "I know there was nothing to that allegation" and while it still comes down to one man's word in this context, right now Hinch's word ain't worth very much.
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