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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/10/20

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Eric

12:51

Who do you think has more all around value for the next 5 yrs, Lux or Hiura?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

I'm going to go with Lux because he should be fine at second base and it's possible he succeeds Seager at shortstop if he's eventually traded. Hiura can certainly hit, but his numbers at 2B were dreadful enough that the plan may need rethinking within a couple of years

Butterball rhapsodo scores

12:55

Thoughts on what Dodgers and Rays are doing with so many OF?

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Planning further trades.

John

12:57

What do you make of the Cards offseason? They've lost their #4 hitter with an already horrendous offense. It's been a frustrating offseason to say the least. Not to mention our rotation also has some question marks in it. Am I wrong for thinking there's a real chance we finish 3rd in the division?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

If you're not a Cardinal, then it's They not We... beyond that, yes, it's a pretty lame offseason. They've got back-end rotation help in Kim and the re-upped Wainwright, and Liberatore is a real prospect but he doesn't help the 2020 team. That outfield looks weak and the infield thinner and yeah, third place seems plausible unless a lot goes right

Shawn

1:02

Did you make it to Ommegang this time?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

SMH no! We drove through a blizzard from Albany to Cooperstown, and had, uh, navigational issues along with traffic ones, which ate into our time, but the bigger deal was that we didn't check to see Ommegang's schedule, They were supposed to be closed for a private event... which was canceled due to the weather. That was my only window to get there. But don't worry, I drank my share of Nirvana IPA and Rare Vos Ale

Sooge

1:04

Agree or Disagree; Nacho fries are the greatest invention of our time. Also, What do you expect from Nick Castellanos this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I do not believe in nacho cheese. I'm not a huge believer in Castellanos, either, but I think in the short term he'll be fine, at least offensively, in that ballpark.

Jerome

1:07

With Billy Beane saying at FanFest that Tony Kemp is guarenteed a roster spot, the A's cannot possibly keep both Mateo and Barreto on the team. Which path forward then is preferable? Trade one of them before spring, or wait to see their spring performances and then trade whihcever you don't want to keep at the end?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

All three are out of options according to our Roster Resource page, and I think the scouting consensus still puts Barreto ahead of Mateo, so I'd guess that if everybody is healthy then it's the last of that trio who will be traded at some point this spring

Guest

1:09

Is there any way to distinguish "best shape of my life" BS from a "best shape of my life" change that might make a difference?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

BSOHL is a talking point for what my wife annually calls "the six-week dry hump that is spring training" — it's basically meaningless.

Alex

1:10

In light of this most recent WSJ report, seemed like the league could have easily justified a decision to ban Luhnow for life, right? The fact that he completely lied when claiming he knew nothing of the sign-stealing scandal makes it even worse now that we know he is behind it all.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Well, the issue is getting from circumstantial evidence to hard proof. There's a lot of room for plausible deniability in terms of how much Luhnow knew. And just because there's a Codebreaker app doesn't PROVE that it was deployed during games, particularly in games after the September 2017 Manfred memo. I don't think that Luhnow deserves the benefit of the doubt and I'm skeptical that he works in baseball again, but I do think that Manfred was trying to make sure he had a punishment that could stick, and there's maybe enough daylight in there to prevent him from going all the way to a lifetime ban or even a multiyear ban.

Scandal

1:17

MLB is clearly losing a lot of respect from fans with the way they are handling the Astros scandal. No players got suspended, the same way they didn't suspend players for steroids when HRs were good for the game. Is it because Manfried is scared of MLBPA? It seems simple, we have the data of which players were at the plate during the banging. SUSPEND them!

Jay Jaffe

1:21

I get the anger, but the commissioner can't just throw in penalties willy-nilly because all penalties against players are subject to collective bargaining. Manfred's 2017 memo said he was going after GMs and managers for failing to comply with his sign-stealing prohibition and that it was their responsibility to inform players.

I think it's fair to question whether that was the right move in light of what happened, but if Manfred had said, "I'm issuing this memo that puts the GMs/managers on the spot, but this winter I think we need to figure out something stronger in the CBA and we recognize that we'll have to negotiate player punishments with the union and make a concession elsewhere to incentivize that" then we'd be looking at a different situation.

Peter

1:22

If you were starting a sandwich Hall of Fame, which sandwiches would you put in the inaugural class?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

My first 5: the Reuben, the Italian Combo, the Roast Beef and Swiss, the Turkey Club, and the Meatball Parm.

John

1:23

What type of reputation hit do you expect the Boston front office to get after the way they handled this entire Betts negotiation, mainly the Graterol medicals? Will other teams be more leery to trade with them out of fair that they are operating in bad faith?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I think teams will be more cautious in dealing with the Red Sox, yes, but every deal is a case-by-case one anyway, and different GMs have different tolerances for risk and also probably different relationships with Bloom, so I'm not sure there's a blanket assertion that applies.

Guest

1:24

this may seem obvious, but do you think the dodgers make the trade for Betts, without a strong feeling they would resign him. It seems like they paid a reasonable price for 1 year of the second best player in baseball.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Yes. The one-year stay is baked into that part of the deal. There's no way the Dodgers make that trade simply *assuming* they get Betts for longer than a year; they decided that this is what they can part with for the one-year upgrade in their chances of winning that World Series. They'll still have a shot at signing him... after he hits free agency.

Mitchy TwoBags

1:26

misconception that the Sox bullpen was bad last year... yes a lot of blown saves but thats a bit of a misleading stat. Second in relief pitcher WAR (7.5). Workman, Walden, Barnes and Taylor were all good...Brasier, Hembree, Lakins and Brewer were all decent.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

The bullpen was dreadful for the first several months and it had a huge impact on the arc of their season. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-doesnt-look-like-the-red-soxs-year/ They got their shit together but by that time it was clear that they were just playing out the string

Karen Carpenter

1:29

How about bringing in Brock Holt as the Yankees' utility man?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Not a bad idea but I'm not sure there's enough playing time for him to be satisfied

Alex

1:30

Would I be wrong in suspecting that few teams are going to take any new memo Manfred issues about illegal sign-stealing seriously? There are obviously going to be approaches that teams take to circumvent league action regardless. We clearly saw teams like the Red Sox completely ignore his memo from 2017. What's going to be different about any memo now?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

You'd be wrong because A) there are several heads on pikes now, which show that Manfred isn't just paying lip service to a rule; B) at the very least there's likely to be more enforcement of existing rules, with higher security, etc.; and C) we could see even stronger rules in place, and penalties spelled out explicitly.

1:33

Ok, those sandwiches are calling to me. Or maybe it's dumplings today. In any event, thank you all for stopping by!

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