JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/21

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Jay Jaffe

2:44

I don't know about Oms but those other names sound great to me from what I know. I can't claim to be an expert in this area.

2:44

I'm critical of you sometimes Jay, but I want to say thank you for standing up for the right parts of tradition and history. You seem to genuinely love the game of baseball and its history so thank you for taking a stand on the naming of the minor leagues. Like come on you can't just take away the Texas League. That name carries over a century of baseball history.

Jay Jaffe

2:45

Thanks, KB! Much appreciated

2:45

Melancon to the Padres--where is Rosenthal most likely ending up now?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

Good question. I'd imagine he's hoping for a closer gig, so maybe he's the guy waiting for somebody to get hurt. I think he'd make a lot of sense as a setup guy for the Yankees if they want to pack the 'pen the way they have in years past, but the CBT is an issue for them.

Neuse like Noisy

2:48

Dodgers ain't gonna turn him into the next Muncy, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

that's a question for Eric Longenhagen but as of his 2019 scouting report he had 60-grade raw power and a possible future as "a valuable, multi-positional player (2B/3B with maybe some left, and shortstop in a pinch) with power" according to Eric's writeup on the A's list.

Dave

2:50

If one manager had to play in at least 81 games this season who would do the best?

Jay Jaffe

2:50

I bet Gabe Kapler would be solid as a late-inning defensive replacement in the outfield corners.

Sirras

2:52

What do you think has been the best signing of the offseason, where best is defined as you see fit?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

From a team standpoint I think the Ozuna and LeMaieu deals will be bargains. From a player standpoint, it's nice to see Jurickson Profar get back to a point where he's worth a multiyear investment, and good to see Tommy La Stella cash in as well.

2:55

If the relative importance of starting pitching is decreasing (and has been for some time) doesn't it just make sense that fewer and fewer should reach the Hall? In a future world where no pitcher faces a batter a second time, we wouldn't continue to insist that X% of pitchers be put in, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

I mean, that's already happening to an absurd degree. Mike Petriello pointed out that only two starting pitchers born in the past half-century have made the Hall, Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay https://www.mlb.com/news/missing-hall-of-fame-pitchers-born-in-1970s

Central Malaise

2:56

What's the ceiling on the 2021 Royals now with the Benentendi move? They remind me a bit of the Reds in years past - making moves that don't necessarily add up to a full sum.

Jay Jaffe

2:57

I see a huge gap — maybe 10 wins – between them and the White Sox and Twins, but they could be at least watchable.

Marc

2:57

So before the draft, Torkelson was rated as a 50 FV player on THE BOARD. However, looking at the 'Updated 2020 Report' section of THE BOARD, he's rated as a 60 FV player. This jump in FV occurs across many prospects, with most of them seemingly getting bumped up a grade in the absence of scouting. What changed between the draft and now, especially since these guys played no minor league games and very little scouting occurred, and if it was thought that Tork was a 60 FV player from the beginning, why wasn't he rated that way on THE BOARD pre-draft?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Another question for Eric, not me.

2:59

i don’t know much about the NFL HOF, but I came across their announcement a week or two ago and overall it just felt a lot simpler, a lot faster, and there were a lot of guys who went in. Obviously you can’t compare apples to oranges, but process-wise, what are your thoughts on NFL’s more rapid fire approach vs MLB’s, where it often takes several years (and up to ten) for people

Jay Jaffe

3:01

Last year they finally elected Alex Karras, whose career was too early for me to see, and a few years ago it was Jerry Kramer. There's nothing especially speedy about the Football Hall process, it's just a lot quieter and opaque.

3:02

Any update on whether Pace data for 2020 will be coming to the pitching leaderboards? The column is still blank.

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Maybe Pedro Baez is working on it?

(Sorry, I forgot to follow up on this last week).

bcdres

3:03

What do C Blooms offseason moves tell you about his overall strategy? In your opinion, will it get the Red Sox back on top of the AL East in the next couple years?

Jay Jaffe

3:06

that his hands are largely tied by ownership as far as spending money. There are some moves interesting in isolation, and they're getting younger as far as their lineup is concerned, but I don't see the addition of any impact players; their hopes depend on guys like Sale and Rodriguez and Martinez bouncing back.

Some Guy

3:09

Odor=Odorizzi, you don't think he will get 10M+ in AAV?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

ah, Odorizzi! I thought you meant Rougned, whom I assumed must have been nontendered after another lousy season. Yes, I think Odorizzi can get $10M+ but i don't see a windfall coming in this market.

Greg

3:10

Understanding that you may have an institutional bias, which set of projections do you think will be closer to the actual 2021 standings: Fangraphs' playoff odds, or the Pecota projections?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

Other than the contrasting projections for the Braves I haven't taken a close look but I think they're much closer to an 89-win team (ours) than an 82-win team (PECOTA).

Morbo

3:12

Reading your write up of the Molina signing yesterday one aspect of Molina's value that I think your methodology fails to capture is just how completely he controls/shuts down opponent's running game on the bases. Molina does have one of the highest caught stealing rates 7% higher than posey, 10% better than Martin, and 15% better than McCann. However, I don't think that caught stealing rate remotely captures the full effect of his ability. If you look at the average number of innings between stolen base attempts (innings caught/[SB+CS]) Martin, McCann, and Posey are all between 11 and 11.5 innings between stolen base attempts while Molina averages 19.2 innings between stolen base attempts. Simply put opponents fear running against Molina so much that they do so at roughly half the rate of the other elite defensive catchers you talked about in your article. For reference opponents ran on Pudge ever 14 innings on average.

Jay Jaffe

3:12

We discussed something along these lines in the comments.

I say Halo

3:13

Any rumblings/rumors about Mickey Callaway's fate?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

The likelihood is that he'll be fired but if I understand correctly, whatever investigation is being done is to make sure he can't sue.

I knew that guy was a fraud when he challenged a reporter to a fight and then half-assed his apology to the point that he needed to do a second one. Didn't know that he had other even worse tendencies lurking below the surface, but I hope we never see him again in a major league uniform.

Seager

3:16

Which Seager were you disscussing?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

I don't think Kyle has another nine-figure extension in his future.

Fanhandrew Zaidman

3:17

Who has more value, all other things equal? A corner infielder with a good glove and average bat, or a corner outfielder with a good glove and average bat?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Well, there's a very big difference in value between a third baseman and a first baseman. and a smaller difference between a right fielder and a left fielder, so it's not as though all things are equal.

Not Sandy Alderson

3:18

Hi Jay. Given the nearly identical WAR between JBJ and Kevin Kiermaier over the last 4 years, and projections showing Kiermaier to be better than JBJ this season, wouldn't it make more sense for the Mets to try and swing a trade with the Rays? At around $26 mil over the next two years, including buyout of a third year, and a luxury tax hit under $9 mil a year, seems the better move.

Jay Jaffe

3:22

There are a few potential trade options the Mets could target for center field. Keirmaer is one of them — and yes, I'd take him over JBJ in a heartbeat — but the Rays aren't going to give him away and the Mets don't have a deep system to draw from at the moment. Harrison Bader, with a bet on his bat rebounding, would be another option as would absorbing all of Lorenzo Cain's remaining contract. It takes two to tango and any of those moves will cost in talent. JBJ only costs money, and I thought that was supposed to be the big deal about Cohen was a willingness to spend.

Guest

3:22

Who starts the most games at SS for the Reds this year?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

Concepcion.

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