JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/19

Jay Jaffe

12:05

Hi folk, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. First off, today is a year and a day since my FanGraphs debut, so a big thanks to all of you for following along as well as to my boss, David Appelman, for having the good sense to hire me, to editors past and present (Carson Cistulli and Meg Rowley, respectively, with Dylan Higgins pinch-hitting in there as well), and to all of my great coworkers.

Second, happy pitchers and catchers to those of you celebrating — yes, there are a lot of distractions currently, particularly with the free agent stalemates, but with the opening of camps, we can at least be reassured that winter is on its way out the door. On with the show...

John

12:05

Hi Jay! What role do you think statistics should have in team halls-of-fame? Have you heard of any analysis on what kinds of players are or are not in a team’s hall of fame?

Jay Jaffe

12:09

I don't think it's really necessary to get too number-crunchy with team Halls of Fame. If a team feels as though it wants to honor somebody, particularly a player (or non-player) who made a huge impact in a short time, even in non-statistical ways, I think that they should.

Case in point: Frank Robinson, whose passing reminded me that the Indians retired his number and erected a statue in honor of his barrier-breaking stint as MLB's first black manager. Robinson's teams posted a .496 winning percentage in his two-plus seasons at the helm, and obviously he wasn't the same offensive presence as he was at the outset of his career, but he nonetheless left a big mark there.

Alex

12:09

Should we be worried about free agent pitchers that sign late in spring training and how they'll fare early on in regular season?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Anecdotally, it does seem like last year's batch of players who signed late tended to struggle. Pitchers such as Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, and Jason Vargas, and htters such as Eric Hosmer and Logan Morrison. That said, J.D. Martinez signed late (Feb 19) and put up an MVP-caliber season.

In June, Craig Edwards took a look and didn't find much of an effect (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/did-spring-training-matter-for-free-agents...) , but to my knowledge I don't think he circled back once the season was over. It's a topic worth closer study.

Mat

12:13

Over/under of 170 IP for Kershaw?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

I'll take the over, but not by much; I think he lands in the 180-190 range, and in fact we have him right at 185 in our depth charts forecast.

Chris

12:14

If the rays move to say Portland, would they stay in the Al East? If expansion happens would they go to 4 divisions or 2?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

I don't think a franchise move would occur without some kind of realignment. If it weren't coupled with expansion, in the scenario you indicate, the most geographically sensible route — as an alternative to an unequal number of teams in the divisions (a situation that held sway in the NL for awhile until the Astros were moved from the NL Central to the AL West) — would be to put Cleveland in the AL East and Houston in the AL Central.

Kurupt FM

12:18

Is there a track record for guys bodyweight issues getting better or worse when entering the bigs? Vladdy's excuse that the nutrition options with minor league teams being very limited comes to mind.

Jay Jaffe

12:21

I don't know that this has been studied in public, likely because listed weights (and heights) aren't really very reliable, and I would guess that as a population, athletes' weights tend to fluctuate more widely than the rest of us schlubs, depending upon whether they're in-season or not.

That said, I would be not at all surprised if savvier teams were tracking this more closely, out of the public domain.

Mat

12:21

Justin Turner has only 2 seasons of more than 500 PAs, projection models all have him between 550-650 on FG player page, you agree with the projections or you more bearish.

Jay Jaffe

12:23

In this particular instance I would tend to be more bearish. I do think you'll see that playing time estimate adjusted in the coming weeks.

JRuby

12:23

Jay, do you get to watch much minor league baseball? Do you have a favorite minor league team/park/experience?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

Living in New York City, I have considerable affection for both minor league parks in the area, namely the homes of the Brooklyn Cyclones and the Staten Island Yankees. Both have very unique backdrops — the defunct Coney Island Parachute Drop is down the right field line for the former, with the real Cyclone rollercoaster visible over the left-center wall, and lower Manhattan visible beyond the outfield for the latter. I try to get to at least one of those parks a year, and now that we have a toddler who's moving beyond the stage of needing a daily nap, I'm hoping we can pick off both parks this coming year.

What's more, I grew up in Salt Lake City, where the park for the Bees (the Angels' affiliate) has the Wasatch Mountains as a backdrop. Went to a game there a couple years ago. During my time in SLC I saw some solid future MLB players come through including Dickie Thon and Willie Aikens.

12:29

However, that can't touch what I saw in Walla Walla, Washington, where my grandparents lived. They hosted the Pades' Low-A affiliate and in 1981, I saw Tony Gwynn and John Kruk in the same outfield multiple times. 25 years later, I consulted on a commemorative bobblehead when Gwynn was inducted into the Hall of Fame. http://www.futilityinfielder.com/wordpress/2008/02/further-adventures-...

Jkim

12:29

With the advent of high-speed cameras, spin rate etc.- isn't it interesting we're sort of back to "tools" now for prospects instead of the 00s moneyball era? Like we have enough tech to figure out exactly what makes a pitch "dirty" etc

Jay Jaffe

12:33

Advances in technology are a great boon to talent evaluators. F/X and Statcast we already know about, but just yesterday I learned about the Edgertronic cameras that can clearly capture 1,000 frames per second https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/high-speed-cameras-spread-quic... and provide very quick feedback when it comes to pitch grips and mechanics.

A blend of scouting plus technology plus stats will yield better results than any one of those things without the inputs of the other two. It's not even an argument, and really, it never should have been.

Glenallen HIll vs Willie Mo Pena

12:34

Do you know when and where Harper and Machado will sign and yet you are not telling anyone?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

Yes, that's exactly it. I'm so smug about my knowledge that I'm not even taking it to Las Vegas because I know it would tilt the odds dramatically.

In all seriousness, I think it's really down to 2 paths:

* Machado signs with Philly and Harper chooses either the Nationals or the Padres.

* Harper signs with Philly and Machado chooses either the White Sox or the Padres.

Trent

12:37

The one knock on Adrian Beltre's HOF candidacy I've seen is that a lot of his WAR value comes from defense, and voters may not trust defensive metrics. But Beltre also fares well in traditional metrics-- for example, he has more HRs and RBIs than first ballot HOFers like Chipper Jones and George Brett. Is there any way that Beltre is *not* a first-ballot HOFer himself?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

With 3,166 hits and 477 homers, Beltre would be a first-ballot lock even if he didn't rate as one of the top defenders of all time. Short of a post-career smoking-gun revelation about PEDs, I don't see anything deterring his first-ballot election.

Guest

12:39

Amazon is officially bailing out of NYC, that's a pretty brutal blow. Politicians kinda screwed the pooch here huh?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

Not brutal at all. The entirety of New York City is turning cartwheels over this because the deal in place really screwed the city.

waks

12:39

did jeff idelson directly say "pls give messr. jaffe my job" or did he merely insinuate it with winks and nods?

Jay Jaffe

12:40

Given the extent of my criticism of the Hall of Fame — I don't think I'm a threat to succeed Idelson anytime soon. Hell, they won't even sell The Cooperstown Casebook in the HOF gift shop.

12:43

I haven't really said anything publicly about Idelson stepping down, but for all of our differences of opinion — and they are considerable — I have great respect for what he accomplished during his tenure as Hall president. When I went up there 3 years ago (I think the anniversary was last week) to do some finishing-touch research for the book, we had a good conversation in the Hall library and then another one over drinks after work one day. That was very cool. I wish him the best wherever his next stop is.

Big Tuna

12:43

What are your odds of a strike when the current CBA expires?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

Right now I'd say they're above 50%. But we're three years out from a new CBA, and I do think there's plenty of time for both sides to begin laying the groundwork for a new agreement and perhaps making some tweaks before then. We've seen it before w/r/t more stringent drug and domestic violence policies in the past.

One thing that's been suggested is that we could see some broader adjustments in exchange for extending the current agreement. I'm oversimplifying here, but suppose MLB owners agree to make all players arb-eligible after 2 years and raise the CBT threshold a bit more in exchange for a pitch clock and the extension of the CBA through 2023. Both sides will have to come to the table in good faith for something like that to happen, though, which hasn't always been the case.

Adam

12:52

No one's going to argue that Harold Baines is the worst inductee in the HOF. But how far back to you have to go to find a less-credentialed player without some serious historical significance (like Larry Doby). Is it Hal Newhouser?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

Harold Baines is not the worst Hall of Famer; among players, that honor belongs to Tommy McCarthy, 19th century outfielder who spent half his career in leagues inferior to the NL.. He was elected by the Old Timers Committee in 1946; more appropriately, he should have been recognized as pioneer for popularizing tactics such as the hit and run and the intentional outfield trap rather than as a player.

FWIW, other non-catchers/pitchers with lower bWAR than Baines who are in the Hall include George Kell, Bill Mazeroski, Pie Traynor, Jim Bottomley, Ross Youngs, Chick Hafey, Fred Lindstrom, High Pockets Kelly and Lloyd Waner — most of 'em Vet Committee selections from the Frankie Frisch/Bill Terry era.

Hopeless in Cincy

12:57

If Votta puts up a few more good seasons, do you like his chances for the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Yes. Wrote about him last April. His 7-year peak WAR is already well above the average HOF 1B (46.1 vs. 42.7) and he's just over two JAWS points shy of the standard (52.4 vs. 54.7). think so long as he gets to 2,000 hits (he's at 1,729) he'll be fine. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-reds-slump-has-extended-to-joey-votto/

Gil

1:01

"Vladdy's excuse that the nutrition options with minor league teams being very limited comes to mind."

Aren't their options limited because they have to buy their own stuff and they have no money because they typically get paid a pittance? I guess Vlad Jr is an exception but that is a big issue, no?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Minor league nutrition is a major issue. Their meager pay is part of the problem but so is a lack of education on such matters. By now, I believe that most if not all teams have taken steps to improve the situation, but so long as the players have to struggle to make a living wage, this will be an ongoing problem, because from a nutritional standpoint, bad food is much cheaper and more readily available than good food.

Steve

1:04

Jay, when you say someone should be "strapped to a rocket and fired into the sun" or something to that effect, are you saying that all of these nimrods should get their own individual rockets, or can we just save them up and do a bulk mailing once a month? The latter is more efficient, but the former would be more satisfying.

Jay Jaffe

1:06

Given the volume, and the finite budget of NASA, I think we'll need rockets once or twice a week for the foreseeable future.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

1:07

Who should get into the Hall of Fame first: Marvin Miller or Dr. Frank Jobe?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

Miller. No non-player has had as big an impact as he did.

kent

1:08

Really, these are the questions being asked? Let's get to the much more relevant 2019 upcoming baseball season questions.