JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:09

Really, it's my chat, and I get to pick and choose the questions that interest me.

James

1:09

Assuming he plays 20 years, do you think Trout gets to 3K hits, 600 HR and 500 SB?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think Trout's penchant for drawing walks could keep him from getting to 3,000 hits. FWIW, he's got only 270 hits over the past two years, due to the walks (216 of 'em) and the time missed with injuries. What's more, he's only got two seasons with more than 180 hits, and those came in 2012-2013.

FWIW, the Bill James 2019 Handbook has a page for his Favorite Toy predictive system and it gives Trout a 19% chance of 600 HR and a 13% chance of 3,000 hits. I'd bet Dan Szymborski would provide similar odds.

BigBoiPants

1:13

have you heard anything about Kershaw first looks in bullpens? Interested to hear if the new routine has resulted in fastball velo coming back

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I don't think anybody should expect maximum velocity in the first week of spring training bullpen sessions.

Slurve

1:14

How much better of a lineup (Starting 8 + SP) is IN the HOF compared to those who are not included (currently playing, retired/not eligible yet, banished, haven't received the votes)? Is it close?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Unless you're simplifying the question to the point of recognizing that the caliber of competition, training and nutrition is such that if you placed today's league-average regular, with his skills and knowledge, in to a league from, like, 1920 or 1945, he would utterly dominate, I think it's not even close. Among the players outside the Hall, only Bonds, Clemens and maybe, eventually, Trout, would even have a shot at an all-time starting lineup.

Archimedes

1:18

Thoughts on the Indians "character assassination" of Bauer? I mean, I get that the Indians probably don't have any plans to retain him in FA, but still seems a low blow to save the franchise $3M.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Anything Bauer says ought to be taken with an aquarium-grade brick of salt, but this is exactly why arbitration is something that players and teams should try to avoid, and instead strive for middle ground. One side is making an argument that this player isn't as good as he and his agent thinks he is, and the other side is basically arguing that this player is being exploited, at least to some degree. That's the type of situation that is bound to create some hurt feelings.

Woad Raider

1:21

I've traveled a lot to Salt Lake City and have a lot of family there. Would there ever be an expansion team there? Viable at all?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

The NBA's Utah Jazz have done pretty well there, and i know there's enthusiasm for the MLS franchise but SLC would be a comparatively small market as far as MLB is concerned. Looking just at the Nielsen TV market size rankings because I bookmarked it a couple weeks back (https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-r...), SLC is ranked 30th in market size, ahead of Kansas City, Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Weather (early-season snow) would be an issue to consider, and i'm not sure how the other economics and demographics stack up compared to those markets. But I think it would be a struggle for a team there.

Guest

1:25

If team stupid money signs Harper, could you see them going for Keuchel and Kimbrel? That would have to put them as favorites in a tight nl east assuming all three.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I can't see the Phillies signing all three but if they get Harper or Machado, I suppose I can see the possibility of them making a move for one of the pitchers.

Big joe Mufferaw

1:26

How do you chose the questions you answer?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

mostly by scrolling up and down and finding ones where I might have something interesting to say. HOF questions are one of my domains, but anybody asking me a fantasy question is barking up the wrong tree (I still get a fair number of those), and for the most part that's true of prospects as well, though at least I have a better basis from which to draw an answer - the strong work of Eric and Kiley here, not to mention other prospect evaluators that i read.

1:28

Is Andruw Jones' (lack of) HOF credentials due more to his numbers coming in an offense-heavy era, or an under-appreciation of his defense?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

mostly, I think it's the latter — measuring defense is difficult, year to year fluctuations are common, and even well-designed systems can disagree widely. That said, the sudden post-30 fade and the ugliness of his year in LA don't help his case at all.

Dave

1:29

Do you prefer yellow or brown mustard? Honey mustard is a garbage condiment and doesn't count.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I was just saying this the other day while admiring the stock within my mother's Sub-Zero fridge in SLC: there are more good mustards than I have time to eat. I tend to prefer dijons (Grey Poupon is a favorite), brown mustards (Gulden's), and whole grains (Maille) to straight yellow mustards and it's a rare day when I settle for honey mustard.

Dave

1:32

Happy Fangraphsaversary! What are you looking forward to in your second season here?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I'm looking forward to feeling more settled and comfortable in my (virtual) surroundings and hopefully getting to the ballpark to do more reporting. To single a couple of teammates out, full season with the likes of Dan Szymborski as a teammate — he's fun to collaborate with — and with Meg Rowley as editor (though I greatly enjoyed working with Carson, too; he really let me lean on him when everything was new). And I can't wait to see who else we add to our lineup.

Most of all, I'm looking forward to learning more. There's a whole lot to pick up from the various skills and strengths of my teammates, and if I'm not taking advantage of that in some way, then I'm falling short in what I do.

Brian CashGod

1:36

David Price is switching his jersey from #24 to #10. His ERA against the Yankees last year was just over 10, so I think we all know why he made the change

Jay Jaffe

1:37

My initial guess was that it was a tribute to Lefty Grove, who wore number 10 throughout his career including his 1934-1941 stint with the Red Sox.

1:38

With the recent slate of extensions signed in the past day or two, what's the restated $ per WAR? It definitely doesn't seem like $9 million or what has been touted in the past couple of years.

Jay Jaffe

1:38

At the end of January, Eno Sarris took a look and found it was still about $8 million per win https://theathletic.com/793317/2019/01/31/sarris-is-free-agency-becomi...

BenZ

1:39

Between Kershaw and Verlander, who ends their career with more WAR? I know Kershaw is a lot younger, but Verlander is actually projected by Steamer to be quite a bit better this year.

Jay Jaffe

1:41

I'll go with Kershaw, because the two players are very close despite the 5-year age gap. Kershaw owns a slight lead in bWAR (64.6 to 63.4) and trails by just a bit in fWAR (63.6 to 61.6).

kent

1:42

So you choose to embarrass me instead of answering either of the two questions I asked?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

honestly, I wasn't trying to embarrass you or anyone. Just didn't feel I had much to add to your questions with that you couldn't get elsewhere. In one of the questions, you asked me about ZiPS, which isn't my domain — it's Dan Szymborski's. In the other, you asked me about "the best projected statistics to indicate a pitcher's success for 2019" — and there I'll suggest looking at ZiPS and Steamer, our projection systems, and maybe check out PECOTA as well. If you're talking about individual stats, FIP, K%, and K-BB% are probably the places to start.

Vegan Man!

1:46

What are the chances that CC makes the HOF? 250 wins, 3,000 K's, CY Young and a WS Title (where he pitched well). I know his Peak and JAWS aren't quite there... Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

1:47

A decent chance despite his JAWS shortage. The reality is that we're not going to see a whole lot of pitchers with counting stats that big over the next couple of decades, and Sabathia's postseason success (and his 2008 stretch run with the Brewers) should help him a bit.

Alby

1:47

Do you think Harper and Machado are leery of Philly because of its fickle fans?

Jay Jaffe

1:47

I've heard within the industry that playing for Gabe Kapler might be the bigger reason. Given the number of controversies in which he's currently immersed, my guess that he doesn't have a very long rope anyway.

Archimedes

1:49

If you had to replace your first name with a HOF nickname, which would it be? Catfish? Sparky? Lefty? Goose?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

Oh, let's show more imagination than that. Maybe "Old Tomato Face" Jaffe (using Gabby Hartnett's nickname), or "Slug" Jaffe (Harry Heilmann) or "Old Aches and Pains" Jaffe (Luke Appling) — the last is especially relevant because I'm heading to the orthopedic surgeon tomorrow for a look at my right shoulder, as I think I have re-torn my labrum.

BenZ

1:51

Other than Trout and Betts, is there anyone who would get more money in a 10 year deal if they were a free agent this winter other than Harper or Machado? Maybe Lindor? Bryant? Ramirez? Anyone else?

Jay Jaffe

1:53

I'd bet Lindor would be in the same ballpark, $-wise. Maybe Ramirez, too. Bryant no given his power fall-off. Correa if he can stay on the field for 150 games in back-to-back years, which he hasn't done yet

Bill

1:54

Why not Harper signs with Nats and Machado signs with Philliies/White Sox/Padres

Jay Jaffe

1:54

quite possible, sure.

Pat

1:54

Beer sales would be awful in SLC!

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