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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/24/20

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Sirras

12:39

My sister just moved to the Gowanus/Park Slope area and I'm visiting soon. Any suggestions for food to check out?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

Because of recent closings of some favorites — including Freek's Mill, a place where i had a couple birthday dinners and celebrated the completion of the Casebook manuscript – I'm at a bit of a loss to come up with a ton of suggestions in that area. But Pig Beach BBQ is fun, as is Threes Brewing, and Ample Hills Creamery, home of the It Came From Gowanus ice cream, the single best ice cream flavor ever created.

Damn, Freek's Mill closing sucks. Boo.

Toshi

12:42

Hi Jay, thank you for the chat. What kind of teams would benefit most from the 26th roster spot, and which teams would they be for this season in NL and AL? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

12:44

I think the teams that might benefit most are the creative ones who already have versatility on their rosters and might have, say, a third catcher who can also play other positions or something neat like that. Teams with managers more inclined to play towards getting platoon advantages and other favorable matchups.

Kurupt FM

12:44

Thoughts on the jays rebuild? Seems like a bit of a quick turnaround and the lack of upper end prospect depth leaves them vulnerable if any of their big names don't pan out.

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I mean, give me Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio early in their careers and Nate Pearson on the verge of joining them, and I'll take my chances with upper end depth; that's a big bounty to come along at once and dinging them for it not being more staggered seems odd. I think they'll be an interesting team but the rotation still looks quite thin, as does the outfield.

BlueJayMatt

12:48

Over/under on Nate Pearson's mlb innings pitched in 2020 - 100.5?

Jay Jaffe

12:50

That seems a little high. For some reason we don't have him down for any innings on the Depth Chart; I've seen other projections around 80sih innings and might start there as a reference point.

Cole Miners Daughter

12:51

Awkward moment: Yankees players asking Cole if the Astros cheated in 2019. Either he says yes, no, I don't know, or I cannot comment on that. Are any of these potential answers going to make the Yankees happy? I wouldn't believe him if he said no.

Jay Jaffe

12:52

I think he's in an awkward position but as a pitcher and a player who's now on a direct competitor, he's a couple of degrees removed from the fallout. I imagine it's not something his teammates — who need him to be at his best in 2020 and can't do anything about the bast — spend a lot of time or energy on in their interactions with him.

I Like Her Not

12:53

What player are you waiting for to "put it all together" one year? This means they are healthy the entire year and consolidate skills growth.

Jay Jaffe

12:55

One who quickly comes to mind is Nomar Mazara, who has the physical tools to be a beast but can't seem to keep the ball off the ground, though he did cut his rate from 55% in 2018 to 47% in '19. Maybe the change of scenery and new voices in his ear will help him adjust his swing and hit some light towers.

Craig

12:55

Can Ketel Marte repeat last years success? Why or why not?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Given how sharply he improved — 7.1 WAR, after a solid 2.6 the year before, and a net of 2.1 spread out over the previous three partial seasons — I think it's a very good question to which we don't know the answer. I know that the Diamondbacks were concerned about the physical toll of the move to center field took on him, but it strikes me that second base is no picnic given the injury risks there (esp. collisions). Off the cuff, I'd bet against him being an MVP candidate again, because of how out-of-nowhere his season was, but I think that assumption might be worth a closer look.

Nate

12:59

Is there any player besides Schilling from the 2020 HOF ballot that makes the HOF (either through BBWAA or era committee) in the next 3-4 years? I'm having a hard time figuring out who that would be unless 1) there is a change of heart towards Bonds / Clemens or 2) if someone in the 25% - 35% vote range rapidly breaks through (a la Edgar or Walker).

Jay Jaffe

1:00

Quite possibly no, unless the holdouts suddenly warm to Bonds and Clemens. While I do think we'll see Rolen, Helton, and Vizquel build from where they finished this year, it could be awhile before any of them gets to 75%. Wrote about the next five years here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-battles-looming-the-next-five-years-of...

John Olerud's Helmet

1:00

Mr Jay! Oh Wise One!! Can you be inducted into the Hall of Fame as a player but then later as a Broadcaster as well? Im thinking Ralph Kiner type here...

Jay Jaffe

1:03

In theory, yes. Let's note that the Frick (and Spink) honors are awards that do not equal full induction into the Hall, though they're often conflated as such. I do think that voters might favor guys who haven't otherwise been honored (as HOF players) but I have next to zero insight into the voting politics of that body.

Matt

1:03

Any guesses as to where and when Puig signs?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

A couple days ago there was a rumor that the White Sox and Rockies were the leading contenders; the latter is dead last in our LF rankings and have no idea how to build a functioning outfield so don't bet on him to land there.

Guest

1:05

How much regression in Verlander's numbers given his age, the cheating implications and his homeritits last year are you expecting?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

I don't see where the sign-stealing implications are going to have much impact on his performance, particularly if (cough) there was no cheating going on in 2019. I expect the ball won't be as lively this year (just betting against the most extreme) and so he'll be helped by that, but let's face it, hard-throwing 37-year-olds are always in danger of regressing because shit happens.

Guest

1:07

Do you see Jose Berrios taking a significant step forward this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

I haven't seen anything to suggest he's particularly due for a step forward, but I haven't looked very hard. His 2019 level (4.4 fWAR) is pretty darn good. Having Donaldson behind him should trim his ERA and boost his bWAR (3.3 last year) a bit, but I'm expecting a guy who again will be a possible All-Star but not a likely Cy Young contender

1:10

Have you read any of The Athletic's Top 100 Baseball Players? Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Many of them but nowhere close to all of them. I love reading Posnanski, and let's face it, he's mostly writing about HOFers, so this is right in my wheelhouse

HoF Future

1:11

What are the chances that Gary Sheffield turns into a Dick Allen type candidate for Veteran's Committees down the road, i.e. one who was polarizing at the time but becomes a cause celebre down the line the further removed from the Steroid Era we become?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Seems more likely than him fading away completely. Those 509 homers and his ferocity at the plate certainly left quite an impression.

Jerome

1:15

Who do you think will have the higher wOBA if they both play ~600 games: Mark Canha (DC projects .341) or Stephen Piscotty (DC projects .331). It's closer than you think because the projection systems don't know about the tragedy impacting almost a year of his performance.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

I think you mean 600 PA or AB, but... we're talking about two guys who both have career wOBAs of .336, one of whom (Canha) is two years older and the other of whom, as you note, had a tragedy (his mom's death) potentially weighing on him during a rough season. I'd suggest then that Piscotty is the better bet to outperform but it really looks pretty close to a coin toss here.

When a competition becomes a job

1:17

It seems most professionals involved with the industry are against stripping the title from the Astros, while many fans (although certainly not all) are for it. Would you care to speculate on why there's this (perceived) chasm? I have yet to read / hear a coherent response from any industry professional on why the title should not be stripped. The fines ultimately are a pittance, the draft picks an inconvenience, and the lucrative reward for cheating (both for the team and the players) remains in place for both short term and long term benefit and absurd profit. It seems baseball is relying upon consumers of their good to remember that the Astros' season was tainted. When that memory fades, the entire episode will be effectively swept under the rug. Is this fair / appropriate?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I think the gap comes because a higher percentage of fans than writers is invested in other sports (mainly college sports and Olympics) that have a history of stripping titles. That's pretty foreign to baseball, and the commissioner, for all of his flaws, is dead set against going down that road.

I'm against stripping the title because I think that pretending something didn't happen is an insult to the intelligence of everybody who saw it. You can't put the genie back in the bottle, can't rebottle the sprayed champagne or recoup the invested emotion that was released. The best you can do is contextualize and compartmentalize what happened and hope that steps are taken for it not to happen again.

Jayson Stark wrote a good column on the topic in January https://theathletic.com/1534933/2020/01/15/stark-take-back-the-astros-...

Them

1:21

Am I wrong in thinking that the idea that it's easy to find a first baseman is a bit exaggerated? I saw that suggested again recently in connection to Dom Smith's trade value. Sure, they're easier to find than quality CF, but quality (or even decent) 2-way 1B are not overabundant. Seems like every year a number of teams- contenders, even-- struggle to find a good fit at 1B. So it can't be that easy!

Jay Jaffe

1:24

The thing about 1B options is that the pool is so large. Corner outfielders and third baseman who are stuck behind incumbents or not very good at defense, veterans at those positions who have lost a step, Quad-A misfits looking for a chance to string together a couple hundred PA uninterrupted... I think it comes down to uneven distribution and some teams being less tolerant of risk than others.

I do think Dom Smith needs to be freed, as noted before in this space.

Matt

1:24

How long does Nick Markakis stay on the ballot if he survives in the big leagues long enough to reach 3,000 hits? No way he's elected, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

He's a part-timer now, and also really not all that good. I think we can close the door on the 3,000 hit hypothesis.

Overbearing Padre

1:26

Padres have, like, ten guys vying for a job at second base, notably including Dozier, Profar, Garcia, Cronenworth, Ty France. If you were in charge, who would you give the job? How would you platoon it?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Based on what we saw in 2018 (2.8 WAR, 107 wRC+), I'd like to see what Profar can do given the chance and the change of scenery, first and foremost, with Dozier as the fallback. Beyond that, it seems like a grab bag to me.

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