JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/24/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/24/26

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Jay Jaffe

12:50

Throwing darts, let's go Dodgers-Mariners and imagine a real bonanza for the extended Jaffe family (most of which is in Washington State)

12:50

Is Trea Turner a HOFer for you?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

I think he's capable of reaching the Hall but see him as several steps behind Lindor, Correa, and even Seager. Two batting titles and a World Series ring aren't nothing but he's heading into his age-33 season and has just three seasons with 5.0 bWAR or better.

Zach

12:54

I’m not hearing anything about Kopech. Seems like he would be a high upside reliever who could help many teams. Why so quiet?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

he really struggled with his control after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus, and was out of the picture when the postseason came around. I haven't seen any updates on him but my standard guess for players in his situation is that he sought a major league deal at a certain baseline, couldn't find one, and was unwilling to settle for a lower guarantee or a minor league deal. Wouldn't surprise me if he signs before the end of spring training and is a later addition to some bullpen.

Jeff

12:58

The thing about The Slopes is that it's also a racial slur

Jay Jaffe

12:59

I had not considered that interpretation, and it's been a long time since i encountered it in the wild (but then, I'm not the one who would be the target). It's obviously better to steer clear of it if has a chance of being read that way.

George Vancouver

1:00

In honor of the state bird: the Utah California Gulls

Jay Jaffe

1:02

The PCL team went by Salt Lake Gulls for (i think) 1975-84, referencing the birds that saved the crops of the pioneers when they were overwhelmed with locusts. I don't think they're gonna shoehorn California into the name though

JoJo

1:04

Is Colson Montgomery more likely to hit 40 HR or get demoted for too many Ks?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

It's the White Sox so I think they let him play under most circumstances. His 29.3% strikeout rate and 69.6% contact rate are high but not catastrophic so long as he's productive. That said, I think 40 HR is a longshot even given that he hit 21 in 71 games last year.

Tacoby Bellsbury

1:06

the Utah Morrisseys, because they'd be nothing without the Smiths

Jay Jaffe

1:06

womp-womp

1:07

Salt Lake wouldn't get a tema before Nashville, would they? Maybe as a pair?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

The general thinking is one in the western half of the US and one in the eastern half, with SLC up against Portland and Nashville up against Charlotte. Wrote about this a couple years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-citys-bid-for-a-major-league-exp...

Gesundheit Jones

1:11

NL West: SDP, SFG, ARI. Can you throw a blanket over them?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Not sure what "throw a blanked over them" means in this context. Are they chilly? unsightly? indistinguishable? They're obviously closely clustered in our projected standings, as .500-ish teams

1:13

will the exciting additions of Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, and Luis Arraez shake things up? I'm on the edge of my seat.

Bob

1:14

Do you think Elston Howard or other crossover players have cases for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Howard and Don Newcombe both lost time to the color line and then military service in Korea. Both look a bit light to me in terms of HOF cases even considering that. I think there are better Negro Leagues candidates among those who never reached the AL/NL but I wouldn't be upset if those guys were in.

Nancy's Friend Sluggo

1:16

Do you think Spencer Jones has a significant major league career, either with the Yankees or some other team? Despite the great physical talent, I can't get past the woeful contact rates.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I really do think his contact rates are a significant impediment and that his major league future lies beyond the Bronx

some guy

1:19

apologies on the corny question, but do you have any opening day rituals?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Just try to watch as much baseball as possible all day, and choose a nice beer to accompany a late game while watching with my wife.

Sanford

1:20

Who among the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Cubs do you think poses the greatest threat to the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe

1:21

I think they're all pretty close, but I like the Mets' pitching more than the others right now so let's go with them.

Pumpsie Green

1:23

Re: Sale comp to Sabathia. How close is Ron Guidry. That dude was remarkable for a short period of time.

Jay Jaffe

1:25

A great pitcher for a short time but he's nowhere near Sabathia in terms of S-JAWS (42.4, 111th vs Sabathia 50.8 and 55th). Wrote about him a few years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-born-in-the-fifties/

Claude

1:25

I recall you're on the record as being on the fence (at best) about DeGrom and the HoF. However, it seems as if many in the media have treated DeGrom as if he's a lock. Do you think there's a chance we are all surprised by how well he does (and how quickly he does it) whenever he hits the ballot? Or is it just too early to tell?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Too early to tell. He's going to have to stay healthy and finish strong to have a real chance.

Ok folks, I'm calling it here as I've got some stuff to do around the house. Thanks so much for stopping by, we'll do this again next week!

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