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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/25/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I'm back from my Salt Lake City ski trip with my daughter (now a beginning intermediate skier!).
12:02
Yesterday, I published a roundup of the top position players remaining on the free agent market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-...
The companion piece, on pitchers, is in the editorial pipeline as we chat and should go live soon.
12:03
Speaking of my daughter, she spotted a new species of squirrel in our backyard this morning: the Brooklyn Pizza Squirrel https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liyvdf5ux22l
Pitter patter, let's get at 'er...
Gaijin
12:04
Well, since you mentioned it, are there any players you're watching for in the NPB this year? Obviously Murakami, any others?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Ha, my tag line ["Baseball games are on television, and Opening Day (Japan) is three weeks away!"] referred to the fact that the first game of MLB's Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs is three weeks away. I don't follow NPB closely. Is there even an easy way to get broadcasts here in the US? Please enlighten if you know.
Tim
12:05
How seriously are we taking the idea that people are interested in making Lance Lynn a closer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
An interesting point I noted in my forthcoming roundup. Lynn does have late-inning experience from his early days with the Cardinals, and based on what he told The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal last month, it sounds as though he's amenable to such a move, but... I guess we'll have to wait and see if any of the teams who called about him earlier in the winter wants to circle back. My guess is that they're second-division teams looking to flip a closer in July, which may not be the most appealing option for some players if they don't want to uproot their families.
Guest
12:11
Does trey Sweeney have the talent of an every day guy or is he just the beneficiary of playing on a team with Javier Baez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Eric Longenhagen graded Sweeney as a 45 FV prospect, which is to say a fringe-average one, in last year's late-season update, and he missed the Top 100 this year so it's safe to say that grade hasn't changed. That doesn't mean Eric is 100% correct or that Sweeney hasn't made adjustments that raise his ceiling a bit. But right now he's the likely starter because of Baez's poor play and his hip injury.
Phil
12:14
I was looking back at position players who have made the HOF ballot with fewer than 20 WAR, partly because I would love to see Jose Iglesias on it just because he's had such a fascinating career. It seems like sort of a random selection--one-tool, high-peak guys like Ryan Howard aren't surprising (and Howard was famous), but then Adam Dunn made it, maybe more as a stathead favorite. Juan Pierre is an interesting player but not exactly good or famous. Rick Ankiel made the ballot, the original two-way guy but also kind of not that good. Is there any rhyme or reason to the cutoff for the bottom end? Does it just depend on how many guys of that caliber are eligible in a given year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
The low-end guys who tend to make the ballots usually have one major accomplishment to their names. Howard was an MVP, Pierre led the league in steals three times and in hits twice. Dunn never won a home run title but finished second three times, Ankiel only finsihed second in the Rookie of the Year voting but obviously had a distinctive career. Carlos Gonzalez (on this year's ballot) won a batting title. Etc.
12:20
All of which is to say that WAR is a pretty imperfect estimator for who makes or misses the cut
(lunch — a poke bowl — just arrived so bear with me for a few here as I stuff my craw)
Jim
12:21
Are the Orioles really going into the season without getting a frontline starter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
It sure looks that way. So much for all of the excitement of having a rich new owner.
12:24
The Orioles rank 23rd in our rotation depth charts (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP), which is pretty unimpressive for a team with playoff aspirations. That said, maybe there's a Grayson Rodriguez breakout coming, or Tomoyuki Sugano — a guy who doesn't miss many bats — outperforms his projection signifcantly. Still, I think O's fans have a right to be kinda pissed over the way things played out this winter.
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:25
Remember when the Internet was still fun? What website or community do you miss most from the good ol' days, and how have you tried to fill that void?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I miss the Chugchanga indie rock mailing list, and living in the East Village of New York City, where there were handful of great little clubs (CBGB, Brownie's, Mercury Lounge, etc) that might be putting on great shows on any given night of the week.
12:29
and that doesn't count larger venues not too far away, like Irving Plaza or Tramps. I might have gone to see 2-3 shows and half a dozen bands or more. Now I've replaced all that with, uh, parenting and attending/covering baseball
I do miss those days though
OK, here's the free agent pitchers roundup: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-ii-top-remaining...
Guest
12:30
Is there any way to view BaseRuns standings for previous years? 2024 is nice to see but it'll go away soon, and I can't seem to find any way to compare to a team's results from 2023 and beyond
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Alas, I don't think we archive those the way we do Playoff Odds. Not really sure why, tbh.
Jed Hoyer
12:33
What's a realistic outlook for PCA after this season if the strikeout rate drops to a point where he's turning those into walks? Is a ceiling of Corbin Carroll out of reach?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I'm not the prospect guy but even just eyballing Eric's prospect grades I'd say a Carroll-like ceiling is out of reach. Crow doesn't have Carroll's power (35 present/50 future for game vs. Carroll's 55/60), hit tool (30/40 vs. 55/70), or speed (60/60 vs 80/80). That's not to say he can't be a very good player, possibly an All-Star in center, but we're talking about a player who ranks 20th on a prospect list as a 55 overall versus one who ranked 2nd as a 65. that's a very big gap
Bullock
12:38
Is Jose Iglesias being unsigned a result of him spending most of the offseason thinking he could get a starting job somewhere?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I doubt it's that so much as it's wanting to come back to the Mets, where he led the league in vibes, or at least another top contender instead of settling for a utility job in Miami, Denver, or Sacramento.
Gaijin
12:40
Re: NPB I've only found the games in the US through what appears to be legal Chinese livestreaming sites illegally rebroadcasting them, which is probably not what people are usually looking for. Would be cool if someone decided to pick the rights up, it's not like they're showing anything else at 2am. Alternatively I know the NBL (Aussie basketball) and NWHL (women's hockey) would stream games on Twitch outside of their home markets, that's another idea that would be fun for more leagues to try.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
interesting, thanks for the info!
Will in Vero
12:40
If the Dodgers try to move Chris Taylor in a trade, what’s the bigger hurdle: Few suitors for Taylor’s talents, or animosity against helping the Dodgers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Aside from the downturn in performance, it's money, money, and money, specifically how much of his remaining $17 million ($13 million salary, $4 million buyout) the Dodgers are willing to absorb.
Bullock
12:42
Does Crochet's performance last year teach us that we should be looser about innings limits, or did he and White Sox just get lucky for a season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
I wish I knew, because I'd make a lot of money in this industry. Hard and fast rules about innings jumps — such as the so-called Verducci Effet — have fallen by the wayside now that teams have so much granular data in terms of pitches and mechanics. That said, the White Sox are notoriously behind the times on the analytics front; they may as well be banging rocks together. We might want to wait to see how well Crochet fares in terms of performance and availability before we declare the White Sox as anything but lucky here.
TomBruno23
12:46
Is Nolan Arenado a future Hall of Famer? Work still to do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I think so, yes. His career/peak/JAWS line is 56.7/44.3/50.5, where the average HOF 3B is at 68.9/43.4/56.1, so he's already above the peak standard (13th all-time, in fact) and 18th in JAWS. He already scores 122 on the HOF Monitor thanks to his 10 Gold Gloves and eight All-Star selections; 130 is a virtual cinch, and I think he'll get pretty close to that by the time he reaches 2,000 hits (he's at 1,826).
Hot Whale
12:50
Why are people speculating that Chris Martin will be able to close for the Rangers?  Isn’t this the same guy who has needed a couple of mental re-sets along the way while working in late relief?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
it's not just spitballing in that the team seems to have thrown his name out there as a possibility in the absence of a name brand closer, and Martin is aware of it (https://www.mlb.com/rangers/news/chris-martin-has-potential-to-be-rang...) and open to it.
Phil
12:52
I think all Fangraphs readers are savvy enough to know to largely ignore Spring Training stats, but is there any stat that might be predictive or be a red flag or a green flag for players or teams?
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